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Quiet, Then Questionable

The snowpack from Saturday's storm has been almost completely demolished by the rain and warmth of the past 36 hours.  Slightly cooler air will work in overnight, dropping temperatures down to near freezing in the city, but 20s in the outlying areas.  Tomorrow will certainly be a cooler day than today was, as highs only get into the lower and middle 40s, but that's still above average for this time of year. 

An upper level low situated over Texas will throw a piece of energy (but not all of it, and that's important) in our direction for later Thursday.  There may be a peek or two of sun to start on Thursday, but clouds will rapidly increase and rain should begin by or just after dusk for most areas.  This will be a rain event for the majority of our area, but with temperatures marginally cold enough (and cold air marginally deep enough) north and west, the precipitation can begin as a brief period of snow over Sullivan and western Ulster Counties.  I'd give it about a 30% shot at getting one inch of snow over the higher elevations of Ulster County. If it does begin as snow, it would quickly change to freezing rain and then rain in these locations.

This will probably be a quarter to half an inch of rain event for much of the area, with only a 20%-30% chance of exceeding a half inch.  Some of the latest model trends would suggest that because this comes in as just a small piece of energy from the southern system (and not the whole thing), rainfall may be gone by dawn on Friday, with the exception of Long Island and parts of the Jersey Shore. 

The fact that energy is left over in the southeast US beyond Friday (which I buy) makes for an interesting weekend forecast.  At the very least, we'll have to watch a wave of low pressure off to our south on Saturday just as colder air is seeping in.  I'll have more details on that in the coming days! 

Posted by WABC on January 24, 2012 | Permalink


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