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01/20/2012

NYC: 2 to 1 Odds of Getting More Than 3" Tomorrow

I've compiled the latest probabilities, and these will help to explain why the 3"-6" zone has been creeping farther south.  Everything still looks on track for timing, etc.  First flakes will fall near the Delaware Water Gap around 2AM and then rapidly spread east from there.  The storm will come to an end early tomorrow afternoon, making it about a 12 hour affair.  The heaviest snow should be around daybreak, with visibilities down to about a half mile or so in many locations.  Rain will mix in along the Jersey Shore and the south shore of Long Island, limiting accumulations in those areas.  That being said, this will be a mostly snow event for the majority of the area.  The sweet spot for snow will likely be over Sussex County, NJ, where the ratios will be good and they'll be far enough south to get into the best moisture. That area has the best shot of 6"+.  Here are the probabilites of exceeding 1", 3", and 6" benchmarks in selected locations.

New York City (Central Park):

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  67%

Chance of more than 6":  5%

Danbury, CT:

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Chance of more than 6":  5%

Bridgeport, CT:

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Andover, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  86%

Chance of more than 6":  29%

Belmar, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  76%

Chance of more than 3":  29%

Caldwell, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Chance of more than 6":  14%

Lakehurst, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  71%

Chance of more than 3": 24%

Morristown, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Chance of more than 6":  14%

Newark, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  62%

Chance of more than 6":  5%

Somerville, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  67%

Chance of more than 6":  19%

Sussex, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Chance of more than 6":  24%

Teterboro, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  67%

Chance of more than 6":  10%

East Hampton, NY

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  43%

JFK Airport

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  48%

Chance of more than 6":  5%

La Guardia Airport:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  67%

Chance of more than 6":  5%

Islip, NY:

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  43%

Montauk, NY:

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  43%

Monticello, NY:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Chance of more than 6":  19%

Orange County Airport (Montgomery, NY):

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Chance of more than 6":  14%

Poughkeepsie, NY:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Chance of more than 6":  10%

Republic Airport (Farmingdale, NY):

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  43%

Stewart Airport (Newburgh, NY):

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Chance of more than 6":  14%

Westhampton Beach, NY:

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  38%

White Plains, NY:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Chance of more than 6":  5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Posted by WABC on January 20, 2012 | Permalink

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