Jeff Smith's Probable Cause

Snow, Then More Snow

We have a dusting of snow on the way for this evening for many areas, especially north and west of the city.  The more significant storm is on tap for Saturday though, and I'll be concentrating on that for this post.  I've compiled some probabilities of exceeding 1", 3", and 6" of snow.  Remember, these are the chances of getting more than the specified amount.  Keep that in mind!  The first flakes will move in during the predawn hours of Saturday morning, with the steadiest snow probably just after daybreak.  The storm winds down during the early afternoon, with some mixing along coastal areas before ending.

Here are the probabilites for the Saturday storm for various locations:

New York City (Central Park):

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  33%

Newark:

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  33%

White Plains:

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  48%

Montgomery, NY:

Chance of more than 1":  95%

Chance of more than 3":  86%

Chance of more than 6":  19%

Poughkeepsie, NY:

Chance of more than 1":  95%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Chance of more than 6":  10%

Monticello, NY:

Chance of more than 1":  95%

Chance of more than 3":  91%

Chance of more than 6":  57%

Farmingdale, LI:

Chance of more than 1":  57%

Chance of more than 3": 14%

Bridgeport, CT:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  57%

Danbury, CT:

Chance of more than 1":  91%

Chance of more than 3":  81%

Belmar, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  48%

Chance of more than 3":  10%

Lakehurst, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  38%

Chance of more than 3":  10%

Teterboro, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  48%

Morristown, NJ

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  57%

Chance of more than 6":  10%

Somerville, NJ

Chance of more than 1":  81%

Chance of more than 3":  62%

Chance of more than 6":  10%

Sussex, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  95%

Chance of more than 3":  86%

Chance of more than 6":  10%

Caldwell, NJ:

Chance of more than 1":  86%

Chance of more than 3":  62%

Chance of more than 6":  10%

Saturday Is Looking Snowier

Snowlovers know things had to go their way at least once this winter, and the trend is their friend with respect to Saturday's system.  Models have moved toward a colder solution and this of course would mean more snow.  Probabilities are now very high for receiving at least one inch of snow on Saturday in New York City.  Here are the numbers that I've been able to come up with thus far.

Probability in Central Park of receiving more than:

One Inch:  71%

Two Inches:  33%

Three Inches:  19%

In the meantime, a relatively weak system will be moving by tonight with a dusting of snow for many areas, especially north and west of the city.  I'll update as I get more information regarding the weekend system, including snow probabilites for different parts of the area!

Looking more wintry

In the midst of a nearly snowless winter, we now have two shots at accumulating snowfall over the next 96 hours.  In the meantime, get ready for a biting wind this afternoon as a much colder air mass enters the region.  We’ve already seen wind gusts over 40mph in some areas, and this will continue as temperatures tumble to near freezing by dusk!