Soaking Rain For Tomorrow Night
While we have a significant rain event on the way for late tomorrow into tomorrow night, there may be some interesting weather tonight in parts of the area. There is a lead shortwave that'll pass through during the pre-dawn hours, and this can spread in a bit of light rain or perhaps a light mix into the area very late tonight into early tomorrow morning. The reason that I mention a mix is that temperatures will fall into the 30s overnight, and even just below freezing in some of the suburbs. So don't be completely shocked if you wake up to a couple of raindrops (or even ice pellets or snowflakes N&W)!
We'll probably have a break when it's just cloudy and not precipitating during the midday hours tomorrow. Steadier rain will develop though, primarily late in the afternoon. Temperatures will probably stay in the lower 40s during the day, and we won't get our official high until tomorrow night. That's the when the rain will really start coming down. The models have trended wetter, and there is a high likelihood of a half inch to an inch of rain tomorrow night into Friday morning. While no widespread flooding issues are anticipated, some areas could exceed an inch of rain from this system. Lifted indices (instability) would indicate that thunder is not out of the realm of possibility during some of the downpours!
Rain will come to an end at some point Friday morning, and it may take until noon for the rain to wrap up on eastern Long Island. The breeze will pick up a bit and there will be a few breaks of sunshine by late in the day. Typically, temperatures would fall behind a system in late January. That is not the case on Friday! Guidance is suggesting that highs will reach the lower and middle 50s.
The weekend is looking pretty quiet at this point. There were earlier worries about a wave of low pressure just missing us to the south late Saturday. That system now looks like it'll be even farther south and weaker, so Saturday would just feature some clouds and sun, along with continued mild temperatures in the upper 40s. A colder air mass will be moving east from the Great Lakes, but it probably won't get here until Sunday night, along with a flurry or two.