Freeze Front

Thanks for Sending Your Questons and Pictures Amy.e.Freeze@abc.com

Amy Freeze is Meteorologist for WABC-TV's popular Eyewitness News Saturday and Sunday Morning.

Amy is one of only a few women in the world who has earned the prestigious Certified Broadcast Meteorologist accreditation from the American Meteorological Society. She also holds Seals of Approval from both the AMS and the National Weather Association.

Get your New York City weather and Tri-State area AccuWeather forecast here on 7online!

Amy joined Channel 7's Eyewitness News Weather Team in 2011, after serving as Chief Meteorologist for Fox News in Chicago. Before that she was a meteorologist at Philadelphia's WCAU-TV, was morning meteorologist at KMGH-TV in Denver and worked on KPTV's local morning news program "Good Day Oregon" in Portland. Her work has earned her several Emmy Awards, including for "Best Weathercaster," "Outstanding Host" and for her weather special, "Surviving Severe Weather."

Amy holds a Masters Degree in Environmental Sciences from the University of Pennsylvania. She earned her B.A. in Communications from Brigham Young University, with an emphasis on Broadcast Journalism. She also has a B.S. in Geosciences from Mississippi State University, with an emphasis on Severe Weather and Forecasting.

An avid runner, Amy has completed marathons in Colorado, Illinois, Pennsylvania, California and New York, completing the New York City Marathon in 2002 and 2011. She's also a certified SCUBA diver and has taken a swim with the dozen or so 300lb sharks that reside at the New Jersey State Aquarium. She has reported on movies and entertainment, covered the Olympic Games in Salt Lake City and Atlanta, and was the first female sideline reporter for Major League Soccer.  Amy also worked on the NFL Sidelines during Chicago Bears Games for four seasons.

Amy gives time to her community speaking to school children about weather and supporting charitable causes. She has emceed the Miss Illinois/Miss America Pageant in Chicago, the Miles to Fight Melanoma Race and won Chicago's "Dancing with the Stars" contest benefitting the March of Dimes.

Born in Utah and raised Southern Indiana, Amy has lived in eight states. She is married and lives on the Upper West Side with her four children.

And yes, "Freeze" is her real name!

 

Snowtober for some, Sloptober for others

When forecasting the most important thing to remember is that the calendar doesn’t control the weather!  So just because it’s unusual to see snow in October does not mean that it will not happen.  And if NYC does see an early snowfall, that does not mean that it will be an awful winter.  First, the storm Saturday starts as all rain and stays rain for most of the tristate until late afternoon.  The forecast will continue to evolve over the next 12 hours but there are important considerations about the atmosphere and the storm to watch.  The reason its unusual to have a snowstorm in October is temperatures are usually not cold enough, proximity of our area to the mild air of the Atlantic Ocean this time of year, the ground is still warm, and the types of storms that develop are normally quick and weaken as they move off shore.   

This is the Accuweather forecast projections for the storm for the entire Northast Corridor.  NYC might see flakes fly but getting a coating of snow would be highly unlikely.

The temperatures will be a close call for this storm for the northwest suburbs!  A few degrees will make all the difference in which areas see snow reaching the ground, where temperatures are coldest there will be a high chance for a mix of rain and snow and even a slushy accumulation.  This will likely be an elevation snow event where areas that are above sea level and inland have the best chance of an accumulation on a grassy surface. Finally, there is a good chance the storm will intensify just off shore which could prolong the fetch of moisture on Saturday night when temperatures are their coldest making snowtober a real possibility!

The computer models are printing out about 1” of liquid for this storm.  In a winter storm event with very cold temperatures the liquid to snow ratio would be 10:1  10” of snow for 1” of liquid.  The temperatures are much warmer so it’s likely the ratio will be much much less. If and when the storm intensifies will determine where a heavy band of snow develops.  The most likely area for that to happen is well north and west of the tristate. The places that could see several inches of accumulation Saturday night are I-81 through the Poconos.   The track of the storm could change this location but it does seem likely there will be a band of at least 6” of snow somewhere inland for the Northeast Corridor.

Some science to consider when evaluating the low likelihood of seeing snow stack up in this storm in the NYC area.  It’s important to note that when precipitation falls from a cloud to the ground, it travels through several layers of air at different temperatures. Almost all precipitation begins as snow, as ice crystals in clouds absorb super-cooled water droplets (small liquid droplets in clouds), and grow big and heavy enough to fall from the cloud. As long as the air temperature is below freezing all the way to the ground, the precipitation will stay in snow form. But offten, the layer of below-freezing air reaches near the ground, but not quite all the way to the surface. So even if the temperature at the ground is above freezing, the flakes may not have time to melt in the distance from the freezing air to the ground. It is possible for this shallow warm layer to be 2-4 degrees warmer (or more) than the freezing temperature a short distance above. But even when flakes make it to the surface… they then reach the ground and could melt on contact if the ground is near 32 degrees or warmer.  Fog formation (which typically happens with cold rain) will increase the likelihood of snow melting at the surface.

Finally, weather doesn’t follow the calendar but history is a good guide.  And extreme events like this is how records are set!  Last year was the 3^rd snowiest year ever in NYC with 61.9” (the measurable first snow happened Dec. 14^th last season which is in line with the 30 year average for first snowfall of the season.)   Central Park has never recorded an inch or more of snow in October since records started being kept in 1869.  The earliest snowfall over an inch in NYC was Nov. 5^th,  with October’s biggest snowfall recorded as 0.8” on Oct. 30, 1925.

This is a tricky storm and there is a lot to watch for… expect a Sloppy Saturday and possibly a Snowtober to remember!



Illinois Takes the Pumpkin

Blame it on the weather.  At first, it seemed Mother Nature's cruelty had gone too far - washing away towns  and  then with tropical storms ruining the highlight of Halloween: pumpkins!  After Hurricane Irene soaked the Northeast, reports from across the Eastern US were  that damage to the pumpkin crop would lead to a shortage of pumpkins for the Halloween season. Now, facts emerge that some places were hit harder than others... and weather may be to blame for a lack of lanterns but there are still pumpkins to pick out!

 

"Heavy rains in the spring caused some farmers to plant later than usual, and some areas experienced hot, dry weather during the summer months, further fueling concerns about this year’s harvest. The fact is that it’s not unusual for some areas to produce a less-than-stellar pumpkin crop, influenced by unfavorable weather conditions." -USDA 

Now comes news that since pumpkins are grown in nearly every state, the supply is widely disbursed. While USDA does not survey the pumpkin crop until the end of the year, overall it appears that the 2011 pumpkin season will feature variable quality and higher wholesale and retail prices. This chart is based on Background Statistics: Pumpkins on the ERS website, updated October 14, 2011.

I've seen stacks of pumpkins all over New York City, they seem a little pricey.  But they are there. So, Halloween is saved from the wreched grip of weather and once again,  "It's the Great Pumpkin Charlie Brown!"

Meteorologist Amy Freeze

Making Friends with a Joggler

I admit I’m a social runner.  I like to talk.  It's easy to start the conversation... you just talk about the weather, right?  I’ve met several people (strangers) while running who have later become my friends.  And I really hope the guy I met today wants to be friends!  At first, I passed him.  Then he passed me.  I passed him going uphill, he passed me going down.  Our pace was similar.  Yet our strides totally different.  I looked like a runner, he looked like, well, a juggler.  I skipped the small talk about the clouds overhead and asked, “Are you doing that the entire time you are running?”

                                                                                

He smiled as if he’d been asked the same question dozens of times before.  Today he juggled the entire 15 miles he was jogging in Central Park.  And he’ll be running the marathon again this year while juggling (at about the same pace as me - not juggling!)  Which came first?  Juggling or Jogging?  Juggling he says is his passion. He can juggle seven items but sticks to just 3 during the 26.2 mile marathon.  He speaks with a pleasant accent because he’s originally from South Africa, now living in New York City.  (I was asking a lot of questions and felt guilty since he was juggling while answering so I talked about my trip to his native South Africa but my story didn’t last long because more people were passing us and cheering at him as we approached Strawberry Fields.)

Joggler Jack Hirschowitz

It's not everyday you see a Joggler.  Yes, that’s right.  I was jogging with a joggler.  Meet the very fit and youthful 66-year-old Jack Hirschowitz. He’s the oldest joggler to complete a marathon. Lots of people smile when he runs by, some might be silently wondering if he’s somewhat insane.  Juggling while jogging. But you should know, he’s a psychiatrist.  I asked him what a doctor would say about a man who jogs and juggles… he said it’s “a very good thing to desire to be fit.”  I hope it’s just as sane to want to have a friend who is a joggler.

The ING New York City Marathon is Nov. 6th.  Jack's fastest marathon is 4:51.  My goal is to beat the Joggler!    

Joggling is a sport!  Check out this blog JUST YOUR AVERAGE JOGGLER or you can email a guy who know show to get started joggling.... Perry Romanowski.  thejoggler@gmail.com 

Umbrellas: Make Dance not War

Rainy Days, Umbrellas don't have to mean Battle if Users are Polite!

The word umbrella comes from the Italian for "little shadow."  The umbrella was designed to act as a “shadow” to protect people from the elements.  But on a rainy day in NYC, umbrellas can be turned into weapons in a sidewalk war!  Everything from umbrella wars, to umbrella rage, and maybe even an umbrella dance can be seen on a rainy day in the city.  Unfortunately, some streets can look like umbrella graveyards by the end of a rainstorm, so here are some great tips for umbrellas etiquette:

These are Slightly altered from Advanced Etiquette

Umbrella Etiquette:

1. Carry with Caution: Be aware of the physical space you occupy. When not in use, always hold your umbrella vertically, with the pointed end down. Do not tuck it under your arm horizontally with the ends sticking out ready to stab someone.
2. Look Both Ways Before You Open: Be mindful of who may be standing nearby when opening your umbrella. Open it with care, noticing whether your umbrella will poke someone.
3. Use the Right Size of Umbrella:  Carry an umbrella that is appropriate for your body size. Golf umbrellas are not practical for navigating city streets on a rainy day.
4. Avoid Umbrella Rage:  It’s been called “umbrella rage” as people battle on crowded streets, using their umbrellas almost like weapons. Whenever you see another person approaching, tip your umbrella away from them the other person to avoid colliding your umbrellas.
5. Dance of Umbrellas Protocol: For a taller person, when you encounter another person using an umbrella, raise your umbrella up so a shorter person may pass by without colliding with your umbrella. If you are a shorter person, lower your umbrella closer to your head. The end result is a choreographed “dance of umbrellas” down the street, each umbrella being raised or lowered in graceful motion.
6. Beware Windy Days: When the wind is so strong that your umbrella is being turned inside out, simply forget it. Tilting your umbrella into the wind only obstructs your path. Instead of an umbrella, it’s better to brave the elements in a good rain coat with a hood.  
7. Keep It Closed and Dry Inside: It is customary to close your umbrella before entering a building. Remove any excess water by gently taping the tip of the umbrella in front of the building a couple of times. The first question upon entering should be where you may place the wet umbrella to avoid further dripping. Make use of the carrying case that came with your umbrella, or the disposable plastic bags that many office buildings and stores provide, to cover your wet umbrella while indoors.
8. Park Umbrellas with Care: Be mindful of where you place your umbrella. If no umbrella stand is provided, set your umbrella upright with the tip on the floor beside you. In trains, planes, and automobiles, lay it on the floor near your feet, not on an empty seat where other people may sit on it or the puddle it leaves behind. Keep your umbrella away from walkways where someone might trip over it.
9. Label your Umbrella:  If you forget your umbrella somewhere, you may have a chance of someone returning it if you tape your telephone number and/or email address to the very top of the umbrella’s main strut above the handle.
10. Umbrella Grayeyard: If your umbrella breaks, don’t leave it for someone to trip over – or worse, for it to be blown about in the streets.  Fold it the best you can and put it in the closest garbage can.

The word umbrella comes from the Italian for "little shadow."  The umbrella was designed to act as a “shadow” to protect people from the elements.  While just about everyone uses umbrellas, it seems not everyone knows the best way to use their umbrellas!  On a rainy day in NYC you can see everything from umbrella wars, to umbrella rage, and maybe even an umbrella dance.  Unfortunately, some streets can look like umbrella graveyards by the end of a rainstorm, I found some tips from Advanced Etiquette that might save you from poking someone's eye out! 

Another Record Breaker for Wet Pattern

It’s been a year of weather record breakers already and there more than 2 months left in the year! This summer was warm (In July, Newark hit 108 Degrees, the hottest temperature ever recorded there.)  And it was wet, August of 2011 was the rainiest month in NYC’s history dating back to 1869.  Even before tropical storms Irene and Lee, our area had record setting daily rainfall on August 14, 2011, with a total of 5.81" which is the fifth highest daily total ever. Now the Central Park reporting station is on target to make the Top 5 Wettest Years of all time by this weekend!

Here’s the Top 10 List for All Time Annual Rainfall:

1. 1983 - 80.56"

2. 1972 - 67.03"

3. 1989 - 65.11"

4. 2007 - 61.70"

5. 1975 - 61.21"

6. 2011 - 60.99"

7. 1990 - 60.92"

8. 2006 - 59.60"

9. 2003 - 58.56"

10. 1903 - 58.32"

NYC’s history dating back to 1869.  Even before the tropical storms Irene and Lee, our area had record setting daily rainfall on August 14, 2011, with a total of 5.81" which is the 5th wettest day ever. Now, the Central Park reporting station is on target to make the Top 5 Wettest Years of all time (over this weekend.) 

The all-time rainiest year occurred in 1983, when 80.56" of rain deluged the city which is an impressive amount of rain, but we could break that record. 

Or at least get very close.  We are just over 60” right now at the Central Park reporting station.  Consider the averages.   The month of October gets 4.40" of rain, November gets 4.02" and December averages 4.00”  Totaling the averages, New York City can expect another 12.42" of rain. That would total over 72" of rain for 2011, which would make it the second all-time rainiest year.

This weekend starts wet and it may very well push us to the 5th spot but big winds are coming in on Saturday which will dry us out fast (and hopefully not blow all the leaves off the trees!)

 

Falling for NYC: Plan Your Color Hunt

A common theme in elevator chat right now is how much people love the Autumn in New York City!  This is my first official Fall living in the city and I had a great weekend catching a glimpse of the colors changing near my house on the Upper West Side... I can't wait to go on a color hunt next weekend with my kids! 

I really love the change of Seasons and I remember a couple of special occasions growing up when my family when to see the colors change where I grew up in the Midwest.  We took family trips to Brown County, Indiana which is just east of Bloomington (Indiana University Campus.)  I remember the whole family with my Grandpa and Grandma Freeze taking us for a drive through the park, a hike and a great cookout in the park.  As I got a little older we took another Fall Foilage trip to Louisville's Iroquois Park in Louisville, Kentucky and my best friend Anne came with us.  These were great, memorable family moments that I remember every time the seasons change!  Make sure you check out the ILOVENY webpage for the latest on the Fall Color Changes.  But also look at th NYLOVESU site where you will find a guide to the types of trees and leaves to look for on your Color Hunt!! We would love to see your pictures here at Eyewitness News!  Email Amy.e.freeze at abc.com Temperature, sunlight and soil moisture all play a role in how the leaves will look in the fall.

Abundant sunlight and low temperatures after the abscission layer forms cause the chlorophyll to be destroyed more rapidly.

Cool air over night with abundant daytime sunshine promote the formation of more red and purple pigments.

Freezing conditions destroy the leaf's ability to manufacture the red and purple pigments. Too early of a frost will end the colorful foliage.

Drought during the growing season can cause the abscission layer to form early and cause the leaves to drop before they change color.

The best weather for brilliant fall foliage is a growing season with ample moisture followed by a dry, cool and sunny autumn with warm days and cool but frostless nights.

Heavy wind or rain can cause the leaves to fall before they fully develop color.

With the massive flooding caused by Hurricane Irene, many people are worried that the perennial change could be lessened this year. But on Accuweather.com Pennsylvania State University Professor of Forest Ecology and Physiology Marc Abrams says there is no need to worry. "Trees that were actually physically damaged by the hurricane in terms of flooding, blown off leaves or just being knocked down or uprooted will obviously not have a big display," said Abrams. "In my opinion, (the) hurricane only impacted a small percent out there. Most are still in reasonably good shape."

Make sure you check out the ILOVENY webpage for the latest on the Fall Color Changes.  We would love to see your pictures here at Eyewitness News!  Email Amy.e.freeze at abc.com Temperature, sunlight and soil moisture all play a role in how the leaves will look in the fall. 

Meteorologist Amy Freeze