Freeze Front

Thanks for Sending Your Questons and Pictures Amy.e.Freeze@abc.com

Weather Weather Rolls ON!

Warm Winter = Jingle in the Jar… for some but Worry for Others

Islip has used just 1500 tons of salt compared to last years 15,000 tons of salt.  Huntington has used about 1000 tons compared to 25,000.  The tons of salt saved translate into cash not spent too. Jersey City has spent $1.3 million less so far this year on snowplowing and salting than last year. Yonkers is counting on nearly $1 million in saved snow removal costs to help bridge an estimated $70 million budget gap that must be closed by June. The city would also have an extra 6,500 tons of salt, which it can save for next year's storms.  And the Long term trend outlooks from NOAA look ABOVE AVERAGE weather is still ahead!!!

NOAA predicts our weather to be at or slightly above normal -- no extreme March weather is expected!

As of Feb. 23^rd NYC is on track to have one of the top 3 spots for warmest winters ever!

The numbers really do prove the point!  From the extreme cold and snow we had last year, to an
“average” year based on 30-year record keeping - - this winter is one that will go down in the history books for comfort!

33 times this winter temperatures have soared above 50 Degrees

12 times the temperature has been above 59 Degrees since Dec. 1^st

2011 71 Times NYC was below Freezing

2012 only 12 times have we Sunk below the 32 Degree Mark

Last winter ended up 2 Degrees BELOW average

This winter we are Averaging 5.2 Degrees ABOVE average

It’s been a snow starved winter too with less than 12” so far this winter, compared to last winter’s record setting 63” season total!

Some of the losers are the folks that “pre-paid” for a winter of plowing…where there have been less than a handful of storms.  And the plowers that work independently to earn cash have really been out of luck.  Shovels and salt are stacked up at the hardware stores.  The coats and boots are a rock bottom bargain. 

While most everyone finds it comfortable… it’s left a few folks worried…  a winter without cold and snow could have weird side affects in the seasons ahead…

Allergies

Bug Populations

Blooming Flowers

Plant Growth

And the list goes on!

LOCAL NEWS ARTICLES

LOCAL REPORTS 

 

SUPER (weather) BOWL

I love the connection between weather and sports.  It's fascinating and fun on so many levels!  Conditions can affect any game.  It's true both teams must face the same conditions BUT their ability to adjust in various situations can make all the difference. Football is my favorite since I spent four seasons with the Chicago Bears and the Game Day Forecast.  The Super Bowl is interesting because most of the time the city is a good weather city --- warm and sunny and just the place to  be the first weekend in February!  But on a few occassions, the host city has been vulnerable to crazy winter weather (Dallas the best recent example!)   It's not just game day weather either (many of the stadiums are dome or retractable roof tops) -- the fans are spending a lot of time in the host city and if the weather is a BUST... it can be a real bummer!

Top 10 Weather Games in the NFL History

For the week Super Bowl XLVI in Indianapolis can have a wide variety of weather this time of year, blizzards to thunderstorms, even tornadoes and ice storms.   Here's What Indinanapolis is doing to prepare for any weather during Superbowl Festivities  

Lucas Oil Stadium is a dome.  Game day forecast for tailgating is 47 degrees with afternoon sun and light winds.

If the game were outdoors... weather can play an intriging part to gameday strategy.  How to chose direction during the coin toss based on game time winds, which cleats to wear, what color jersey will work best in full sun conditions, to pass or run, what angle kickers should use, and much more!  The teams facing each other this year have different skills --  as for speed, it is critical in football and no team has more speed on offense right now than the Patriots. Take Wes Welker arguably the best receiver in the NFL who comes up with huge places making 25- to 30-yard gains regularly.  Dry conditions would benefit his speed. (and so expect big things from him in the dome!)

Finesse teams love to play in perfect weather conditions. The Patriots offense could really strut their stuff in perfect weather while the Giants could capitalize on any wrinkles.  More wind could slow down the game, alter the passing... while wet conditions could really slow things down. These are all "what if" scenarios since the game is indoors at Lucas Oil Stadium.  It's not always that way, here are some interesting  "SUPER WEATHER"  stats: 

• 19 of 42 Bowls Played indoors
• 17 of 42 Bowls had a Trace or More of Rain
• 3 Bowls had Snow on Game Day (1982,2006,2011)
• 2 Bowls played during an Ice Storm (2000,2011)
• Warmest High Temperature of 82° (1973,2003)
• Coldest High Temp for Dome Game 16° (1982)
• Coldest High Temp for Non-Dome Game 49° (1985)
• Wettest Super Bowl .92 inches (2007)
• Outside Games With High Wind Gust (1980, 1984, 1989,2007,2011)

Sources to check out:  BLOG http://wx-man.com/blog/?p=1357     Superbowl Weather Blog

Future Super Bowl host stadiums to watch for Game Day weather:

2013 – Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans, Louisiana 

2014 – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey 

2015 – University of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale, Arizona 

SNOW RIDERS! Sled, Tube, Ski, Board!

Here's a quick list of great places to ride snow in NY NJ CT

I'm on my way to the ski resort Mountain Creek in Vernon, NJ to check out the preps they are making for the new snow this weekend!

Add your favorites!

Click here for TUBING

Click here for more SNOW RIDING

Click here for SLEDDING

Click here for BEST SLEDDING IN NYC

THIS LIST WAS COMPILED BY TIME OUT NEW YORK for all 5 Boroughs:

Manhattan

Pilgrim Hill, Central Park
The grande dame of NYC sledding institutions—and rightly so, with its perfect steepness and gentle denouement (that’s sledspeak for a smooth finish). This spot gets crowded, so prepare to slalom around wayward toddlers and other human obstacles. Enter at 72nd St and Fifth Ave
Après-sled stop: Friendly Euro wine bar Via Quadronno (25 E 73rd St at Madison Ave; 212-650-9880, viaquadronno.com)

Cedar Hill, Central Park
Thrill-seekers need not apply: A less-crowded alternative to Pilgrim Hill, Cedar makes a good starter slide for beginners (ahem, wusses). Fifth Ave between 76th and 79th Sts
Après-sled stop: Comfy old-school diner Nectar Coffee Shop (1022 Madison Ave between 78th and 79th Sts, 212-535-4115)

Riverside Park
There are some gentler slopes between 92nd and 103rd Streets, but the hard-core head to Hippo Playground, where you can catch a glimpse of the Hudson as you dodge trees on your way out—er, down. Hay bales at the bottom prevent impalement on the fence beyond. 91st St at Riverside Dr
Après-sled stop: Belgian beer joint B Café West (566 Amsterdam Ave between 87th and 88th Sts; 212-873-0003, bcafe.com)

Morningside Park
This is where the Columbia crew kicks it, using dining hall trays, cardboard boxes and snowboards. Come nightfall, there’s drunken sledding beneath the lights. Stupid? Yes. Fun? Certainly. Morningside Dr at 115th St
Après-sled stop: Cozy literary café Society Coffee & Juice (2104 Frederick Douglass Blvd [Eighth Ave] at 114th St; 212-222-3323, societycoffee.com)

91st Street
For a quick fix, slip down 91st Street’s pedestrian-only zone. This is urban sledding in its purest form; just watch out for unsuspecting kids/dogs/elders. 91st St between Second and Third Aves
Après-sled stop: Bustling Alsatian joint Café d'Alsace (1695 Second Ave at 88th St, 212-722-5133)

Brooklyn

Prospect Park
Yuppies and their offspring start at the gentle knoll near 9th Street for a little downhill action before heading toward the rolling stretch of the Nethermead to make snow angels. Enter at 9th St and Prospect Park West
Après-sled stop: Rustic neighborhood pub Park Slope Ale House (356 Sixth Ave at 5th St, Park Slope; 718-788-1756)

Fort Greene Park
Anything goes at this mellow Brooklyn spot. Grab a giant garbage bag and join the mix of families and hipsters on one of the park’s four hills, which range from beginner to painful. Or—if you’re cool with bumps and possibly broken bones—tackle the park’s treacherous staircase (you wouldn’t be the first). DeKalb Ave at Washington Park
Après-sled stop: Sleek beer garden Der Schwarze Kölner (710 Fulton St at S Oxford St; 347-841-4495, derschwarzekoelner.com)

Queens

Forest Park
If you don’t find it fun unless it’s illegal and perilous…bingo. This golf course is home to three hills, where sledding aficionados come to earn their stripes. Once you’ve conquered the icy “Suicide Hill” (off-limits by order of the Parks Department) you can consider yourself a pro. Forest Park Dr and 79th St
Après-sled stop: Queens’ alleged oldest bar, Neir’s Tavern & Café (87-48 78th St at 88th Ave, Woodhaven; 718-296-0600, neirstavern.com)

Crocheron Park
Bayside natives swear by this open space, which offers both a moderate pitch and a steeper one for daredevils. If you’re into solitary sledding, come here to avoid the masses that dominate larger parks. 35th Ave between Cross Island Pkwy and 215th St
Après-sled stop: Smiley neighborhood stop Maggie May’s (21422 41st Ave at 214th Pl, 718-224-9898)

Bronx

Ewen Park
Hey, lazybones, we all want to sail downward without having to hike back up a slippery slope. At this steep free fall, you’re in luck: Extreme sledders just take the stairs alongside the snowy incline. Riverdale Ave at 231st St
Après-sled stop: Cute local favorite Corner Cafe & Bakery (3552 Johnson Ave at 236th St, 718-601-2861)

Crotona Park
As the Bronx’s most popular sledding destination (park staff have been known to show up bearing hot chocolate for sledders), the historic park’s minipeaks fill up with everyone from babies to vagabonds—prepare to share. Fulton Ave between Crotona Park North and 172nd St
Après-sled stop: Family-friendly Latin joint El Nuevo Bohio (1155 Webster Ave at 167th St, 718-293-2954)

Henry Hudson Memorial Park
When Riverdale schools let out, the cool kids head here to get their adrenaline rush on the snowy drops that overlook the Hudson. Better that than smoking grass, right? Kappock St near Palisade Ave
Après-sled stop: Authentic Irish bar An Beal Bocht Cafe (445 W 238th St near Greystone Ave; 718-884-7127, anbealbochtcafe.com)

Staten Island

Clove Lakes Park
The steep terrain attracts a diverse mix of sledders who take the sport seriously—and park rangers who regularly organize sledding races on the hill and oversee kids on school snow days. Martling Ave at Slosson Ave
Après-sled stop: Laid-back neighborhood bar The Beer Garden (1883 Victory Blvd at Mountainview Ave; 718-876-8900, thebeergardensi.com) 

 

 

 

 

FREEZE OFF YOUR FAT... Running in the Cold Could Make You Sick & Other Winter Workout Myths

Thinking about my cold weather workouts… the doormen think I’m crazy to venture out in the cold, my neighbors are packing the gym… and my Mom still says “you’re gonna get sick!!!”   Does getting soaking wet with sweat during a winter workout seem to increase your risk of catching a cold?   Why does exercising in the cold increase your risk of having a heart attack compared with exerting yourself under temperate conditions?   Does cold weather exercise tend to cut excess fat from your body which might not fall during the summer?   I’m not about to tell you that your Mom or your Grandmother was wrong about exercise and getting sick in cold weather.  And I won’t promise you that you’ll drop a ton of weight running in sub freezing conditions but I do know that you will workout better if you understand your body and the physiological responses for exercising in cold air!  I know that I do!

Ways to Cope with COLD

* During extremely cold weather, I try to find sheltered spots which are at least partly out of the wind. This will allow you to exercise more efficiently and reduce your risk of getting excessively cold. For example, I run in Central Park in the Winter and on the Hudson River in the Summer. The park is sheltered from winds, while the Riverfront offers a refreshing breeze in hot weather.

* Wear season-appropriate, adaptable clothes during runs. With today’s clothing technology there is no excuse to not be relatively comfortable during outdoor workouts ANY time of the year.  Get lightweight wind breakers, water resistant, and wicking clothes and you’ll feel good in winter weather!

* Two pairs of running shoes are necessary in winter weather. Winter's slushy conditions often take their toll on shoes… running-shoe midsoles can become saturated with moisture. When midsoles get wet thy absorb shock less than dry soles, so leave water-logged shoes to dry out for 48 hours and use your second pair for the next day's run.  I also tend to put my wet shoes near the heater to dry (but not close enough to melt the soles!)

* Drink!   Don't reduce your fluid consumption.   I know I sweat in any weather!  But science shows perspiration rates are lower in the cold than in the heat, but cold weather exercise can still be dehydrating. For one thing, water is lost from the respiratory system at an increased rate on chilly days. Exposure to cold air can also increase the need to eliminate since urine prodution is increased.  You may not feel thirtsy in cool conditions but if you don’t drink you can become dehydrated which affects performance and makes it harder to stay warm. Taking at least 8 ounces of fluid immediately before a wintry workout. Doctors recommend to drink at least 8-10 glasses of water each day.

* Don't overeat. As much as I would love to say I’m fattening up for my winter workouts… it’s any sort of adventage!  Accumulating “winter” fat under your skin offers no athletic help. It's true that a fat person will feel more comfortable than a skinny individual when both are standing still in cold air, but the situation is reversed during exercise. Lean people can usually exercise more intensely than heftier folk and can therefore generate more internal heat. If your goal is to stay warm while exercising, being fit is definitely better than being fat! The exception to this rule is swimming, where a bit of fat under the skin prevents heat from being lost too rapidly to the water.

*Breathe in Your Nose more than Your Mouth which warms the air before it gets to your lungs.  Taking yoga classes really helped me learn this!

*RUN SMART!  Winter workouts depend on wind speed, too.   Look at the science!  A tolerable 32 degree F temperature will suddenly feel much colder when a swift wind develops, and the “feels like” coldness will plummet to about  23 degress F with a 19 mph wind.  It's important to remember that running itself can amplify or minimize this 'wind-chill' effect. For example, running at 10 mph into a 9 mph wind provides the same chill as standing still in a 19 mph gale. For that reason, on windy winter days it is important to complete the first half of all your runs INTO the wind. The second half of the run - when fatigue is slowing you down, your body is generating less heat and your clothes are wet with sweat - should be completed with the wind at your back. Running at 8 mph with an 8 mph wind behind you totally eliminates any wind-chill effect, whereas running at the same speed into an 8mph wind produces the chilling effects of a 16-mph force.

THE BEST WINTER WORKOUT EVER

According to the Gatorade Science Institue the BEST WINTER WORKOUT IS basically, 60-minute rounds of exercise in chilly air, where you attempt to push up the intensity a little rather than just poking lethargically along.  These workouts will allow the body to break down fat.  One useful strategy that I have just begun to try is  to exercise for about an hour in the evening after dinner then refrain from eating afterwards.  Get up early and complete another 60-minute bout of strenuous exercise on the following morning before breakfast. Your muscles will be quite glycogen-depleted during the sunrise session, causing fat to be metabolize at a higher rate than usual. This strategy also works during warmer parts of the year too according to many athletes, but the unique nature of cold weather running may tend to magnify fat utilization.  

WILL I GET SICK AND WHAT ARE THE DANGERS OF COLD WORKOUTS

I like the cold.  I think mindset is one of the first hurdles.  If you don’t want to do it.  Don’t.  If you do, just recognized the different environmental factors!  It’s true our bodies perform differently under extreme weather conditions.  For example, researchers at Japan's National Defense Medical College have shown that exposure to cold air enhances the activity of large white blood cells (which actually depress immune system functioning.) The mechanism underlying this negative change may involve hydrocortisone/cortisol, the hormone produced by the adrenal glands in response to cold stress which tends to 'turn down' immune system activity. This somewhat perverse reaction may explain, at least in part, why getting chills during a workout seems to increase your risk of getting ill.  Fortunately, the Japanese research says those who train regularly in cooler air are less likely to experience downturns in their immune systems after workouts than those who are exposed to the cold only sporadically.  BEWARE!  Researchers aren't exactly sure why cold air is worse but cold-air exposure is known to raise both the heart rate and arterial blood pressure, so increasing the stress on the heart. Human blood also clots more easily in cold weather, which might increase the risk of a coronary artery blockage. These changes are modified by frequent exposure to the cold, so it is probably sudden and unexpected or sporadic interactions with cold which carry the most risk, in other words, “heart attack” shoveling after big snow storms.

DANGER:  One of the dangers of cold weather workouts is that you can sometimes get too cold. The danger is not from freezing air but the combination of cold temperatures with sweat, or rain, or wind. Cold air doesn't shut down the sweating process – so you need clothes that wick away the moisture.  If you get wet, you start to lose heat at an accelerated rate because water is not an insulator.  If you get wet from sweat or rain, expect to feel miserable.  Sometimes people wonder if inhaling large amounts of cold air could freeze the throat or respiratory tract.  The trick is breathing in your nose more than your mouth.  The risk appears to be quite low if you are able to pull most of the incoming air through your nose rather than your mouth. Bear in mind that even when the outside air is about 13deg F, inward-moving air is warmed to about 59deg F by the time it has moved just two inches into your nasal passages. By the time it reaches your larynx, it is close to 70, and the news is even better at the entry to your lungs, where the temperature of the in-rushing air is up to 86F.

White Christmas is a Dream

Last year, the post Christmas storm left a blanket of white that turned out to be legendary.  More than 20" of snow fell Dec. 26-27, 2011 While it's possible for NYC to have White Christmas weather, it's not probable.  And its even more unlikely this year than the long term averages!  It's important to kick off this conversation with a few climate facts that while important to note, have very little to do with short term forecasting!

  

-December is 12th month in a row of above-normal temperatures in the Northeast

 

 

 

 

-NYC is recording it's 2nd wettest year ever for 2011

-Last winter was the snowiest winter ever in NYC with 61"

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

  

 

 

Now, on to the predictions for this December 25th.  In the Washington Post this week, climate experts at Cornell University released their annual predictions about the probability of a White Christmas, Pinkham Notch, N.H., tops the list from the Northeast Regional Climate Center with a 95 percent probability of an inch or more of snow on the ground on Dec. 25. "New York City gets a 12 percent chance of a White Christmas," based on the 50 year averages. Cornell Climatologist Jessica Rennells says their are based on a 50-year average. The Post sites, "With above-normal temperatures expected to continue in the Northeast for the next week or two, Rennells says the real odds of a snowy holiday are likely lower than the long-term trend would suggest."

Agreed.  Accuweather forecasts are showing a seasonal pattern for the 5 to 7 day range.  There appears to be a pattern shift that would shove some cold air south near the end of the month but it doesn't have much hope of arriving before Christmas.  Also the moisture starved storms that have been moving east over the past two weeks set the stage for a less than optimistic chance of getting the ground covered in white in the next 9 days!

The NOAA definition of a White Christmas is at least 1" of snow on the ground for Dec. 25th!

 

Where is that Meteoroid: NASA puts Asteroids in an App

While meteorologists don't specialize in meteorids... this is still pretty fascinating because it has to do with things falling from the sky!  Meteorologist Joe Witte from NASA's Goddard Earth Science Outreach  sent me the scoop:

Every day, on average, more than 40 tons of meteoroids strike our planet. Most are tiny specks of comet dust that disintegrate harmlessly high up in Earth's atmosphere, producing a slow drizzle of meteors in the night sky. Bigger chunks of asteroid and comet debris yield dozens of nightly fireballs around the globe. Some are large enough to pepper the ground with actual meteorites. With so much "stuff" zeroing in on our planet, NASA could use some help keeping track of it all.  There is a new iphone app to track it all.

A new iPhone app designed to harness the power of citizen scientists to keep track of meteoroids. "Using our app, people from all walks of life can contribute to authentic NASA research," says Bill Cooke of NASA's Meteoroid Environment Office, which sponsored the project. "The data will help us discover new meteor showers, pinpoint comet debris streams, and map the distribution of meteoroids around Earth's orbit." A new app for iPhones and iPads harnesses the power of citizen scientists to help NASA track meteoroids hitting Earth. FULL STORY  WATCH VIDEO

The bottom line is this app is a great way to track the meteoroids... its a great talking point for people who like science.. and a fun way to spend time on your iphone!  

Run Bunny Run! NYC Finally Goes Sub Freezing this Weekend

NYC  Finally Goes Sub Freezing

Last year on this date, our daytime high was 32 degrees.  But despite an October snow (with an overnight low of 33) New York City has not been sub freezing yet this Fall!

The 30-year average date of the first 32 degree night is November 20th.  While the climate numbers are a good guide at what to expect, they are the balance of the extremes.  Looking at the last 3 years, our freezing weather has been slow to show up, with no November subfreezing nights.  (BTW that slow start trend didn't hold up those winters, including last year which turned out to be NYC's snowiest season EVER! with more than 60" of snow!)

Last Winter Snow Shots via Weather Watchers to www.twitter.com/amyfreeze

Last year the first sub freezing night was December 4th.  This year, it looks like Dec. 10th will be the lucky mark.  What's it all mean for our winter and the season ahead?  Not much, except a slow start.... but we all know how that turned out in the "Tortoise & the Hare."

Are you knocking on the turtle's shell or screaming Run Bunny Run?

*Central Park is the official reporting station for NYC

Wet Year Could Overflow into Winter Woes

Out next storm is more wet than white but 2011/ also known as "the wettest year" ever could overflow into big prolems this winter.  While it seems likely that cold temperatures will bring frozen ground and snow... all the rain this year has resulted in high water levels.  When the ground freezes over, the mositure is not just trapped in the soil but the new moisture melting from snow during thaws cannot soak in, and the runoff is instead sent to already high rivers.  The important message is that despite the seasons change, flooding can still happen.  In fact, frozen ground makes it nearly impossible to soak up melting moisture sending the "snow leftovers" into quick runoff.  Consider the wet year we've had in our region and the trouble is easy to spot.

New York City (approaching 70" with 68.81") has had its 2nd wettest year ever (Avg: 49.69")  The state of New Jersey has had its wettest year ever, including the Newark reporting station.  Danbury, CT has had it's wettest year ever.  Below are more cities with their wettest year ever:

Philadelphia, PA: 60.00" Avg: 42.05"
Cleveland, OH: 62.07" Avg: 39.14"
Louisville, KY: 65.70" Avg: 44.54"
Scranton, PA: 56.80" Avg: 37.56"
Evansville, IN: 66.62" Avg: 44.27"

There are more cities topping the rain charts. Here is the State of the Climate releaseed by NOAA. And it all adds up to a lot more than an umbrella parade...The number of billion dollar weather/climate disaster in the US during 2011 rose to 12 events. This record year breaks the previous record of nine billion-dollar weather/climate disasters during a single year, which occurred in 2008. The total combines damage from these 12 events is approximately 52 billion dollars.

While flooding has caused many many headaches all year long, extremely wet soil will freeze into the solid ground in the coming weeks.  Having high soil moisture content going into the winter traps the liquid UNTIL thaws occur... even mid winter thaws could create flooding situations during the winter months.   Winter forecasts predict a cold and snowy winter (not as bad as last winter) but also warn of these potential freeze thaw episodes after an extremely wet year.  Our area remains sensitive to flooding EVEN AS THE GROUND STARTS TO FREEZE!

 

Nature’s Clues to NYC’s Winter Forecast: Still Snowy, Not as Cold

First of all winter forecasts are important for planning purposes and they can also have their entertainment value (Yes, Snow! or Say it isn't So!)  While it is true, the winter projections for the Northeast for the past two years have been busts... no one is giving up.  One reason scientists are pointing to for bad predictions is the rapid melting of Arctic Ice.  It seems the typically reliable ocean pattern and seasonal trend forecasting are being affected by the melting.  But no one is throwing in the towel…  Afterall, in science, the real secret is not to have all the answers but to ask better questions (thank you: UPenn Prof Stan Lakowski!)

Photo: www.weheartit.com

Based on the following:  Winter Forecasts available, Recent Climate Trends, Siberian Snow Coverage, Ocean Patterns, New Forecasting Research, and a few secret ingredients here’s what I think the forecast in NYC will be like:

• Temperatures 1-3 degrees above average (NYC’s Avg.Winter Temp 40, LAST YEAR: 32 Degrees)
• Snowfall 10-15” above average  NYC’s Average Snowfall is 29” LAST YEAR: a brutal 61”)
• Most of the snow will come after Jan. 1^st
• Early Feb. will be the coldest and snowiest time of winter
• At least one 10” storm should be expected
• There will be surges of mild air at times, not frigid like last winter!
• Flooding could be a late winter concern

One of the best things I came across in my winter forecast research was the latest predictions by British Scientist Piers Corbyn (who is both astrophysicist and a meteorologist.)  Corbyn is the only prognosticator who was able to get the forecast right last winter.  Whether it’s luck or science on his side, the fact is that the last two winters Corbyn’s been the most on target of any published forecasts. He uses solar observations and historical weather patterns for his predictions.  Corbyn is calling for a cold, stormy winter for the NYC area with January being very cold.  He gets as specific as to say Jan 11-14^th will have massive snow in the Northeast. 

Now, a disclaimer of sorts for the entire Winter Forecast Discussion:   I think the most frequently asked question is also the biggest clue for forecasting right now:  Because NYC had snow in October, does that mean the winter will be worse?  Well, October snow storms rarely happen so we don’t know what clues they could to our winters....Will an early snow shed light on the winter?  We are seeing so many unusual events, its hard to pinpoint the next extreme!   Just look at this long, but incomplete list of wild weather in less than two years here in New York City:

• Warmest spring (March-May 2010) on record
• Hottest summer (June-August 2010) on record
• 1st deadly tornado in "Five-Boroughs" since 1895 (Sep. 16, 2010)
• Snowiest January ever recorded (2011)
• 3^rd Snowiest Winter Ever (60.9” 2010-2011)
• Wettest March on record (10.69" 2011)
• Wettest Summer Ever in Central Park (2011)
• Record Summer Heat, hottest day EVER in Newark 108 (July 28, 2011)
• Most Snow to ever Fall in NYC in October (Oct. 29th )
• Record Warmth in November (5 days over 60 Degrees, Nov. 2011)
• 2011 is the 2^nd wettest year ever!

The bottom line is that we can ask the right questions about the forecast but we basically have to be ready for just about anything.  Below is the bonus section… it’s way more information on the clues that tell us more about Winter Forecast possibilities… I’ve included most all the research and links I’ve looked at to come up with the conclusions about our Winter Forecasts.

Winter Forecasts Available to check out… some are based on teams of Meteorologists, others are about as good as a dart board!

ACCUWEATHER: Stormy and Cold    Snowfall Prediction: 33”  

NOAA Northeast and Mid-Atlantic: equal chances for above-, near-, or below-normal temperatures and precipitation. Winter weather for these regions is often driven not by La Niña but by the Arctic Oscillation. If enough cold air and moisture are in place, areas north of the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast could see above-average snow;  "We're predicting snowfall to be slightly above normal this winter in New York City with a total around 33 inches," said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather.com expert long-range meteorologist and leader of the Long-Range Forecasting Team. "Most of that snow will probably fall from December into January."

Old Farmers Almanac

Farmer’s Almanac

Recent Climate Trends tell us a lot about what the current Global patterns are producing season to season. 

Keep in mind, NYC’s temperature history is only about 134 years worth of record keeping and precipitation records are less than that… it’s a relatively small amount of reliable data considering the hundreds of years that people have been in NYC area.  But what we have to work with does show that the winter weather we are living through is RECORD BREAKING!  Last winter went down in history as one of New York City's worst --- with two blizzards and 61” of snow making it the third snowiest on record for the Big Apple. 

 Top 10 Snowiest Winters in NYC History

1. 1995 to 1996 - 75.6"
2. 1947 to 1948 - 63.2"
3. 2010 to 2011 - 60.8”
4. 1922 to 1923 - 60.4"
5. 1874 to 1875 - 58.8"
6. 1872 to 1873 - 58.5"
7. 1898 to 1899 - 55.9"
8. 1960 to 1961 - 54.7"
9. 1993 to 1994 - 53.4"
10. 1906 to 1907 - 53.2"

Even more impressive is to look at New York City's Top 10 heaviest snowstorms.  Three of the top 8 NYC snowstorms of record have happened in the last two years.   Five of the top 10 snowstorms have happened since 2003:

1. 26.9" Feb. 11-12, 2006
2. 26.4" Dec. 26-27, 1947
3. 21" Mar. 12-14, 1888
4. 20.9" Feb. 25-26, 2010
5. 20.2" Jan. 7-8, 1996
6. 20" Dec. 26-27,2010
7. 19.8" Feb. 16-17, 2003
8. 19" Jan. 26-27, 2011
9. 18.1" Mar. 7-8, 1941
10. 18" Dec. 26, 1872 

Blizzard of 1888 via www.nyc.org

And whether the snow comes early and steady in the season, or not until January… the trend for several seasons has been record breaking snowstorms!   Consider this:  last winter, New York City got a late start with snow, but that didn’t slow things down.  The first storm was huge with 20” the day after Christmas.  Climate trends now point to very active snow seasons that occur in February.  It’s interesting to note that almost 60% of New York's average seasonal snowfall happens after January 27. Also, half of the top 10 snowiest months ever recorded happened in February! 

Siberian Snow Coverage – what’s happening north of us does matter for winter extremes!

One reliable clue in winter forecasting has been the amount of snow on the ground in October and early November in Eur-Asia.  If there is above average snow cover in Siberia – winters are typically colder and more active.   In short, there is no shortage of snow cover in Asia and the evidence supports an active, above average winter in the Northeast including the NYC area.

Ocean Patterns – the biggest clue now has a new twist with recently released research

El Nino – warmer than average Pacific Ocean temperatures and La Nina  - colder than average Pacific Ocean temperatures have traditionally given the most reliable and most useful clues for winter forecasts.  A strong La Nina pattern creates blocking over Greenland which forces the jet stream to buckle and push frigid air into the Eastern US.  We are currently in a weakening La Nina pattern, there is cold water in NE pacific which tends to prevent extremely cold winters here.  Basically, it’s an ocean pattern that sems to be a weak result of the Greenland block, cold but not crazy cold!  (Another clue to winter snow in NYC is the warm water in North Atlantic, this current observation tends to increase storm activity and boost winter snow forecasts.)   There is also new research says that most important ocean factor for forecasts is the warming in North Atlantic called the North Atlantic Oscillation.   Basically, NAO seems to trump any effects of the much more publicized La Nina/El Nino, at least for the eastern US.  And the current NAO expectations are closely related to blocking patterns that force cold air into the Northeast during winter months.  Right Now we are in a Negative ( -NAO) forces the jet stream to buckle and dump cold into the east.  But it’s interesting to note the concerns with NAO forecasting…. It often changes week to week (+/-) during the winter!!  Plus,  scientists haven’t been able to predict it accurately more than a week or two in advance what the NAO will do next.  So, it’s hard to consider the NAO while making a winter forecast in November.  But, from what is known and discussed with long term forecasters, it appears during weakening La Nina the NAO remains  mainly negative.

SPECIAL CONCERN:  NYC has had so much rain, 2011 is currently ranked as the 2^nd wettest year ever!  The amount of water in the soil is always important in forecsting… once the ground freezes the moisture will be locked in and then when thawing begins, the moisture is released not just from soil but also from melting snow.  Essentially, cold weather will keep moisture frozen in the ground throughout the winter. However, when spring temperatures melt the snow, that melting water is added to all the water that will thaw from the ground. The bottom line is that if late winter storms happen as Spring thaw begins our area could have severe flooding consequences. 

Meteorologist Amy Freeze

Weather Experiments for kids

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