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February 2013

02/25/2013

GET USED TO GRAY SKIES

IT'S HARD TO BELIEVE THAT WE ARE NOW TWO MONTHS PAST CHRISTMAS! THE AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT HAS DEFINITELY INCREASED NOTICEABLY SINCE THEN. IN RESPONSE TO THE LENGTHENING DAYS AND THE HIGHER SUN ANGLE, NORMAL TEMPS HAVE BEEN CREEPING BACK UPWARD. THAT TREND WILL ACCELERATE IN THE WEEKS AHEAD. THE FOLLOWING LOOK AT NORMAL TEMPS WILL REALLY CONFIRM THAT FACT: NORMAL HIGH/LOW…TODAY - 44/30, MARCH 25TH - 53/38, APRIL 25TH - 65/48, MAY 25TH - 73/57.

BEFORE WE CAN GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT THE ARRIVAL OF AND THE WARMER TEMPS THAT WILL INEVITABLY COME, IT APPEARS THAT THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL FAVOR SOMEWHAT COLDER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS HERE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS, AND PERHAPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS. WE HAD A DECENT DAY WEATHER WISE TODAY, AND A MOONLIT, CHILLY NIGHT IS COMING UP TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHEAST. WITH DRY AIR AND VERY LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT, WE DO EXPECT A DECENT RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

CLOUDS FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN TOMORROW, AND ITS PRECIP WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE DAY OR BY EARLY EVENING. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE FEEL THAT FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR TO THE COAST, THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHAT FALLS WITH THIS STORM WILL BE RAIN. AS YOU GO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST, WE DO THINK THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE JUST DRY ENOUGH, AND CHILLY ENOUGH ALOFT, FOR A BIT OF SLEET OR SOME WET SNOW FLAKES AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP. EVEN SO, RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE IN THIS ZONE. YOU WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO GET NORTH AND WEST OF THE MARTINSBURG, WV AND HAGERSTOWN, MD AREA, BLUE MOUNTAIN IN PA UP INTO THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHWESTERN NJ, THE POCONOS, CATSKILLS, MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY, AND INTO NORTHWESTERN CT AND INTERIOR MASS. TO GET INTO A ZONE WHERE WINTRY FORMS OF PRECIP WILL HANG ON LONGER. IN THIS ZONE, WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT ENOUGH SNOW AND ICE TO CAUSE SOME ROAD PROBLEMS.

OUR BEST RAIN WILL FALL HERE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT 0.50" TO 1.00" OF RAIN IS MOST LIKELY, WITH A FEW SPOTS GETTING MORE. SO, THIS WILL BE A VERY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT. SINCE WE ARE JUST PAST THE FULL MOON, AND EAST WINDS WILL BE BLOWING QUITE NOTICEABLY FOR A TIME, WE DO HAVE TO BE A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

ON WEDNESDAY, THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF AND END, AND WE'LL GET INTO A DRY SLOT. WHETHER OR NOT THE SUN COMES OUT HERE IN THE AFTERNOON IS STILL SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION. HOWEVER, IT SHOULD AT LEAST APPEAR BRIGHTER. AS FOR TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY, THAT WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW. NORTH AND WEST OF THAT FEATURE, THE SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK, AND IT IS LIKELY TO JUST STEW AROUND WITH TEMPS RUNNING BELOW MOS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW, WEDNESDAY WILL END UP MUCH MILDER. 60 DEGREE READINGS MAY SHOW UP AS FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF DE AND INTERIOR SOUTH JERSEY!

LOOKING AHEAD, OUR WEATHER WILL STAY UNSETTLED ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND PERHAPS INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW ROLLS SLOWLY EASTWARD. THE RESULTING LOW HEIGHTS AND COLD AIR ALOFT, PLUS THE CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW DUE TO THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND HERE WITH THE CHANCE OF INSTABILITY PRECIP FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO TREND DOWNWARD LATER THIS WEEK, AND IT WILL LIKELY STAY ON THE CHILLY SIDE INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.