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01/28/2013

VOLATILE WEEK ON THE WAY

AFTER OUR 5 DAY SIEGE OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 20S, THE ARCTIC AIR FINALLY EASED UP A BIT YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPS WERE STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE. RIGHT ON CUE, THE WARM ADVECTION SETUP THAT WE WERE ADVERTISING FROM LATE LAST WEEK CAME RIGHT INTO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK. THAT CERTAINLY CREATED SOME HEADACHES OUT ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. ON THE LATEST WEATHER MAP, WE SEE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TONIGHT, EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY TOMORROW. TEMPS ALOFT HAVE WARMED UP CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER TODAY. SO, ANYTHING THAT FALLS TONIGHT WILL JUST BE LIQUID. THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY FORECASTING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP MOST OF TONIGHT...JUST SPOTTY DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS THIS EVENING AND PLAY THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

BASICALLY, TEMPS TONIGHT IN MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE. THAT MEANS THAT PLACES WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, WE DO HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR ICY CONDITIONS PERSISTING, MAINLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. WITH THE COLD, AND IN SOME CASES, SNOW COVERED GROUND, AND MILDER AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN, AREAS OF FOG WILL DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE DO EXPECT AN ENHANCED AREA OF RAIN, OR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS, TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE NY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH, ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCURWILL BE SPOTTY, AND THEY PROBABLY WON'T HAPPEN AT ALL FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PA AND MUCH OF NJ AND THE NYC AREA ON SOUTHWARD. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL EVEN ATTEMPT TO BREAK AT TIMES TOMORROW IN THIS ZONE. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BECOME MILDER, BUT THE REAL WARMTH IS WAITING UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO OCCUR. WE ARE PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTING THE NAM SOLUTION FOR TOMORROW, WHICH LOOKS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE GFS AND EURO. THE NAM HAS BEEN DOING SOME WEIRD THINGS THE PAST FEW DAYS!

WEDNESDAY WILL TURN INTO OUR "BLOW TORCH" DAY, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BEING MORE SOUTHERLY, AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHWEST, THAT DAY, TEMPS ALONG SOME OF THE DELMARVA BEACHES, AND ESPECIALLY UP ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE, ALL OF LONG ISLAND, AND COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE FLOW OFF OF THE COLD WATER. THEN, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'VE GOT A REALLY RIPE SITUATION FOR HEAVY RAIN, AND EVEN SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING, LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP TEMP CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. DEW POINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR LATE JANUARY STANDARDS. PLUS, HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CRASH HERE, FALLING OVER 250 METERS FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z THURSDAY. WE ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT A GOOD INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.5" TO 2" OF RAIN. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A REALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY FORECASTING 75+ KNOT WINDS AS CLOSE AS 900 MB DURING THAT PERIOD! IF ANY OF THAT WIND GETS TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A SQUALL LINE. WE'LL HAVE TO EXAMINE THAT MORE CAREFULLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA, COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS WON'T BE ABLE TO RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY FROM THE EARLY A.M. LOW, AND COULD ACTUALLY FALL SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON A BRISK AND COLD NOTE ON FRIDAY. WE ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A POSSIBLE CLIPPER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUR NEXT BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on January 28, 2013 | Permalink

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