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January 2013

01/28/2013

VOLATILE WEEK ON THE WAY

AFTER OUR 5 DAY SIEGE OF VERY COLD WEATHER WITH TEMPS NOT GETTING OUT OF THE 20S, THE ARCTIC AIR FINALLY EASED UP A BIT YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPS WERE STILL ON THE CHILLY SIDE. RIGHT ON CUE, THE WARM ADVECTION SETUP THAT WE WERE ADVERTISING FROM LATE LAST WEEK CAME RIGHT INTO THE REGION TO START THE WORK WEEK. THAT CERTAINLY CREATED SOME HEADACHES OUT ON THE AREA ROADWAYS. ON THE LATEST WEATHER MAP, WE SEE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD TONIGHT, EXITING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY EARLY TOMORROW. TEMPS ALOFT HAVE WARMED UP CONSIDERABLY FROM EARLIER TODAY. SO, ANYTHING THAT FALLS TONIGHT WILL JUST BE LIQUID. THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY FORECASTING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL PRECIP MOST OF TONIGHT...JUST SPOTTY DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS THIS EVENING AND PLAY THE FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

BASICALLY, TEMPS TONIGHT IN MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE. THAT MEANS THAT PLACES WHERE TEMPS ARE STILL AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING, WE DO HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR ICY CONDITIONS PERSISTING, MAINLY ON UNTREATED SURFACES. WITH THE COLD, AND IN SOME CASES, SNOW COVERED GROUND, AND MILDER AIR TRYING TO MOVE IN, AREAS OF FOG WILL DEFINITELY BE A CONCERN TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

ANOTHER PULSE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE DO EXPECT AN ENHANCED AREA OF RAIN, OR AT LEAST SOME SHOWERS, TO PUSH ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE NY AND INTO NEW ENGLAND DURING THAT PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH, ANY SHOWERS THAT DO OCCURWILL BE SPOTTY, AND THEY PROBABLY WON'T HAPPEN AT ALL FROM THE SOUTHERN HALF OF PA AND MUCH OF NJ AND THE NYC AREA ON SOUTHWARD. THERE IS ALSO A GOOD CHANCE THAT CLOUDS WILL EVEN ATTEMPT TO BREAK AT TIMES TOMORROW IN THIS ZONE. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BECOME MILDER, BUT THE REAL WARMTH IS WAITING UNTIL WEDNESDAY TO OCCUR. WE ARE PRETTY MUCH DISCOUNTING THE NAM SOLUTION FOR TOMORROW, WHICH LOOKS QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THE GFS AND EURO. THE NAM HAS BEEN DOING SOME WEIRD THINGS THE PAST FEW DAYS!

WEDNESDAY WILL TURN INTO OUR "BLOW TORCH" DAY, AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, WITH THE SURFACE FLOW BEING MORE SOUTHERLY, AS OPPOSED TO SOUTHWEST, THAT DAY, TEMPS ALONG SOME OF THE DELMARVA BEACHES, AND ESPECIALLY UP ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE, ALL OF LONG ISLAND, AND COASTAL SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL BE HELD DOWN SOMEWHAT DUE TO THE FLOW OFF OF THE COLD WATER. THEN, IT LOOKS LIKE WE'VE GOT A REALLY RIPE SITUATION FOR HEAVY RAIN, AND EVEN SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING, LATER WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT WITH A SHARP TEMP CONTRAST ACROSS THE BOUNDARY. DEW POINTS WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH FOR LATE JANUARY STANDARDS. PLUS, HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO CRASH HERE, FALLING OVER 250 METERS FROM 12Z WEDNESDAY TO 12Z THURSDAY. WE ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT A GOOD INCH OF RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.5" TO 2" OF RAIN. IN ADDITION, THERE IS A REALLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS PROGGED TO MOVE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY FORECASTING 75+ KNOT WINDS AS CLOSE AS 900 MB DURING THAT PERIOD! IF ANY OF THAT WIND GETS TRANSFERRED DOWN TO THE SURFACE, WE WILL BE LOOKING AT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A SQUALL LINE. WE'LL HAVE TO EXAMINE THAT MORE CAREFULLY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA, COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN ON THURSDAY WITH GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS. TEMPS WON'T BE ABLE TO RISE MUCH ON THURSDAY FROM THE EARLY A.M. LOW, AND COULD ACTUALLY FALL SOMEWHAT IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THE WORK WEEK WILL END ON A BRISK AND COLD NOTE ON FRIDAY. WE ARE ALLOWING FOR SOME FLURRIES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A REINFORCING COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

A POSSIBLE CLIPPER OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE OUR NEXT BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE.

01/22/2013

LATEST ON THE COLD & POSSIBLE FRIDAY STORM

THE TEMPERATURE IN THE PARK DROPPED TO 18 THIS MORNING. THAT IS THE COLDEST READING HERE SINCE ONE YEAR AGO TODAY WHEN THE LOW WAS ALSO 18. WE WILL STAY IN THE DEEP FREEZE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE ARCTIC AIR GETS REINFORCED BY A SHORT WAVE TROF AND SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE AN ATTEMPT AT SLIGHT MODERATION AT THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, IT STILL LOOKS COLD. ONCE AGAIN, THE COLD WILL GET REINFORCED BEHIND THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING US SOME SNOW...DETAILS ON THAT COMING UP IN A BIT.

THE AIR MASS OVER US DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND DOES NOT LOOK QUITE AS COLD AS THE CURRENT AIR MASS...AT LEAST AT FIRST GLANCE. THAT'S BECAUSE THE 850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES ARE FORECAST TO BE A BIT HIGHER. THAT BEING SAID, WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT THE SOURCE REGION OF THAT AIR MASS - A DIRECT SHOT RIGHT OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. SO, WE MAY EVENTUALLY BE DEALING WITH A "SNEAKY" COLD SITUATION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH ACTUAL TEMPS RUNNING BELOW NUMBER GUIDANCE. THE COLDER IT IS ON SATURDAY, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO STILL BE AT LEAST MODERATELY COLD ON SUNDAY, DESPITE THE MODERATING TREND THAT WILL BEGIN THAT DAY.

THE COLD IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE ENHANCED BY A BRISK BREEZE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. WE WILL EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST WIND CHILL VALUES THAT WE HAVE HAD IN QUITE SOME TIME.

THURSDAY ALSO LOOKS BRISK. IN FACT, IT MAY END UP BEING WINDIER THAN TOMORROW BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. THE RESULTING DOWNSLOPING WIND AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ON THURSDAY DUE TO RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO SKIES TURNING OUT MOSTLY SUNNY HERE.

WINDS ON FRIDAY WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER, BUT THEN BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES ON SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO LIGHTER WINDS.

BEFORE WE TALK ABOUT THE STORM POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY, WE DO HAVE TO ADDRESS THIS FEATURE COMING THROUGH LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE ARE MOST LIKELY TO PICK UP AT LEAST SOME FLURRIES. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SNOW TO BRING A FRESH COATING, RESULTING IN SLIPPERY ROADS. THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO, ODDS FAVOR LITTLE OR NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIP...MAYBE JUST A COUPLE OF FLURRIES AT WORST.

NOW, ONTO THE FRIDAY SETUP...KEEP IN MIND THAT IT IS ONLY TUESDAY, AND WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE OUR THINKING AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY. DUE TO THE BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES, AT LEAST BETWEEN THE OLD EURO AND THE GFS, WE SHOULD NOT BE PUTTING ACCUMULATIONS IN THE FORECAST JUST YET. OF COURSE, THE TREND FROM THE 00Z TO THE 12Z RUN OF THE EURO IS PRETTY OBVIOUS, I.E., IT IS LESS IMPRESSIVE LOOKING WITH LOWER PRECIP TOTALS.

THE ARGUMENTS IN FAVOR OF A BIG STORM ARE AS FOLLOWS: THE AIR MASS WILL BE COLD, AND SO SNOW SEEMS TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIP TYPE. WITH THE COLD TEMPS, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RATIOS WILL BE GREATER THAN THE STANDARD 10:1. SOMETIMES RIGHT BEFORE WE GO INTO A PATTERN CHANGE...ALL BE IT TEMPORARY...THE LAST SYSTEM, OR CABOOSE, TENDS TO BE BEEFIER THAN PROGGED.

ON THE FLIP SIDE, HERE ARE THE THINGS WORKING AGAINST A BIG STORM HERE...(1) GULF MOISTURE IS LACKING. (2) THE NAO IS AVERAGING NEUTRAL THE REST OF THIS WEEK...SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE NOW, AND FORECAST TO GO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE BY THE WEEKEND. SO, BLOCKING IS NON-EXISTENT. (3) THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT PIECES TO THIS SYSTEM, AND NOT ONE, CONSOLIDATED STORM. ALL OF THESE PIECES HAVE TO COME TOGETHER IN JUST THE RIGHT WAY FOR A BIG STORM TO DEVELOP. (4) THE UPPER TROF AND REINFORCING SURFACE FRONT COMING THROUGH THE EAST TOMORROW NIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WILL PUSH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE EVEN FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THAN IT WILL BE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM COMING RIGHT AWAY ON FRIDAY, THAT ARGUES FOR THAT LOW TO BE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, AS IT TRIES TO FIND THAT BAROCLINIC ZONE. IF THAT IS INDEED THE CASE, THEN ANY PHASING THAT DOES OCCUR IS MORE LIKELY TO BE OFFSHORE, PERHAPS ONLY AFFECTING EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE STILL HAVE TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS OPEN AT THIS JUNCTURE. WE WANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SNOW TO CAUSE SOMETRAVEL HEADACHES. WHETHER WE GET ENOUGH TO SHOVEL AND PLOW REMAINS TO BE SEEN. HOPEFULLY, AT THIS POINT TOMORROW, WE CAN BE MORE DEFINITIVE FOR FRIDAY.

01/21/2013

COLDEST WEATHER IN 2 YEARS LIKELY TO CONCLUDE WITH SNOW

COLD, COLDER, AND COLDEST...THAT PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP OUR WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS COLD OUTSIDE NOW, AND IT IS CERTAINLY COLDER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST WEEKEND. IT WILL TURN EVEN COLDER IN THE SHORT TERM, BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THEN, THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR WILL BE WITH US THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO, THIS WILL END UP BEING OUR COLDEST SHOT OF THE LONGEST DURATION SINCE TWO YEARS AGO IN JANUARY OF 2011. IT IS VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT WE HAD A THREE DAY COLD SPELL THAT YEAR WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPECT HERE. THE DATES OF THAT COLD SNAP WERE AMAZINGLY...JANUARY 22ND, 23RD, AND 24TH!

TEMPS HERE WILL ATTEMPT TO MODERATE A BIT AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. FOLLOWING FRIDAY'S SYSTEM, A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS JUNCTURE, 850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WITH THAT AIR MASS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS LOW AS WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE HERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THE AIR WILL END UP BEING ONE OF THOSE "SNEAKY COLD" AIR MASSES THAT PRODUCES COLDER TEMPS THAN WHAT FIRST MEETS THE EYE. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL LOOK AT MORE CAREFULLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A MORE AGGRESSIVE WARMING TREND COULD KICK IN NEXT WEEK.

IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT, WE HAVE TO WATCH THE SITUATION CAREFULLY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA, AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL. WE STILL FEEL THAT ONCEYOU GET EAST OF NYC, FROM PARTS OF LONG ISLAND AND CT EASTWARD, THEN WE ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1-3" SNOWFALL AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW NOW PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THAT LOW WILL PROBABLY BE OVER EASTERN NY STATE OR VT BY MORNING. BEHIND THE TWO LOWS, A VERY WELL DEFINED PRESSURE TROF WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THAT TROF, THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ENHANCED. CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHERE THERE IS INTERACTION WITH THE OCEAN, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOMEWHERE BETWEEN BOSTON, MA AND PORTLAND, ME, THERE WILL BE UPWARDS TO A FOOT OF SNOW! MEANWHILE, AS YOU GET AWAY FROM THIS FOCUSED ZONE, COATINGS OF SNOW WILL BE MORE THE RULE SOUTH AND WEST OF NYC, WITH NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO LOCALLY. THE MOUNTAINS ARE OBVIOUSLY MOST LIKELY TO GET SOME OF THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WITH TONIGHT'S SETUP.

MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER, WITH A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY, WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

THEN, ALL OF OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE LATE WEEK STORM. THINGS LOOK PRETTY COLD RIGHT NOW, AND SO WE ARE LEANING VERY HEAVILY TOWARD A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT.

01/08/2013

COLD IS RIGHT AROUND THE CORNER

ON THIS DATE BACK IN 1996, WE WERE DIGGING OUT FROM THE FAMOUS "BLIZZARD OF '96". A POWERFUL STORM MOVED UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD, INTERACTING WITH SOME VERY FRIGID ARCTIC AIR. THE RESULT WAS A TRAFFIC STOPPING, LIFE DISRUPTING SNOWSTORM FOR MILLIONS OF PEOPLE. THE ENTIRE MEGALOPOLIS FROM BOSTON TO WASHINGTON, DC WAS PARALYZED. PHILLY RECEIVED A RECORD BREAKING 31" OF SNOW FROM THAT STORM. PARTS OF SOUTHERN PA RECORDED SNOW DRIFTS AS HIGH AS 10 FEET! THE SAME STRONG WINDS THAT WHIPPED THE SNOW INTO MASSIVE DRIFTS GUSTED TO 80 MPH ON PARTS OF THE JERSEY SHORE. SOME LOCATIONS HAD A TOTAL BAN ON TRAVEL FOR A TIME DURING AND JUST AFTER THE STORM. ONE OF THE AMAZING THINGS ABOUT THIS STORM WAS THE SHARP NORTHWEST CUTOFF TO THE SNOW. AS CLOSE BY AS BINGHAMTON, NY, AS LITTLE AS 1" OF SNOW FELL!

OBVIOUSLY,WE DON'T FORESEE ANYTHING LIKE THAT HAPPENING ANYTIME IN THE NEAR FUTURE. HOWEVER, WE MAY BE SEEING THE SEEDS PLANTED DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS MONTH FOR A ROUGH PERIOD OF WINTRY WEATHER FROM LATE JANUARY INTO FEBRUARY. IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT THE COLD AIR WILL FINALLY MAKE IT HERE. THE NEW EURO MONTHLY FORECAST JUST CAME OUT TODAY AND IT IS PREDICTING A LARGE AREA OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE MIDWEST ALL THE WAY TO THE EAST COAST.

THEN, IN MARCH, IT TRENDS TEMPS BACK TO NORMAL. WE'LL HAVE TO SEE HOW THINGS UNFOLD IN THE WEEKS AHEAD, BUT WE CERTAINLY HAVE LOTS OF POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER LEFT.

IN THE SHORT TERM, THERE REALLY ISN'T MUCH TO ARGUE ABOUT IN THE FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS TONIGHT WILL NOT BE QUITE AS CHILLY AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT, THEN TOMORROW WILL END UP BEING OUR MILDEST DAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE SOME CLOUDS AROUND FOR A TIME TOMORROW, AND THAT MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN JUST A TAD. IT ALSO APPEARS THAT OUR MIXING LAYER WILL BE QUITE SHALLOW TOMORROW WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION PREDICTED. IF THAT WERE NOT THE CASE, THEN WE WOULD HAVE TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS GETTING MIXED DOWN FROM 850 OR EVEN 900 MB.

THERE WILL BE SLIGHT COOLING ON THURSDAY BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT THAT COMES THROUGH HERE LATE TOMORROW OR TOMORROW EVENING. EVEN SO, TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE.

OUR NEXT PRECIP EVENT IS ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AS THIS FIRST SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKENS. RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THAT SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE. THERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT OF A DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS AS TO THE TIMING OF THE MOISTURE. OF COURSE, IF RAIN WERE TO STREAK IN HERE VERY QUICKLY, THEN THERE WOULD BE THE ISSUE OF SOME FRONT-END ICE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS OF THE NORTHEAST, PERHAPS FROM CENTRAL PA ON NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, IF THE RAIN IS DELAYED, THEN ODDS ARE AGAINST THAT HAPPENING. WE DID TWEAK OUR NUMBERS DOWN FOR FRIDAY, GIVEN THE CHILLY START AND THE STABLE LOOK TO THE AIR MASS THAT DAY WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES AND POSSIBLE WET WEATHER.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE HAVE A VERY CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH TEMPS. THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME VERY WARM AIR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS, AND PROBABLY UP THE COASTAL PLAIN TO A POINT. THERE WILL ALSO BE PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT...AND MAYBE RIGHT OFF THE DECK. THE QUESTION IS...WILL WE BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN ANY OF THAT WARM AIR TO THE SURFACE? THIS TIME OF YEAR, THERE ARE SO MANY THINGS THAT CAN HAPPEN TO PREVENT IT FROM GETTING WARM, TWO OF WHICH ARE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A LACK OF WIND FLOW. WE'LL EXAMINE THIS SITUATION CAREFULLY IN THE DAYS AHEAD TO SEE IF ANY FURTHER TEMP ADJUSTMENTS ARE NECESSARY FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. EITHER WAY, WE ARE PRETTY CONFIDENT THAT AT LEAST A FEW LOCATIONS WILL END UP GETTING RIPPED OFF BIG TIME WITH THIS POTENTIAL WARMUP.

01/03/2013

CORE OF THE COLD MOVES OUT FOR THE WEEKEND

ON THIS DATE BACK IN 2000, WE WERE IN THE MIDST OF AN UNUSUALLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER. TEMPS SOARED WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S OVER A LARGE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. IN FACT, ON JANUARY 4TH, 2000, THE TEMP HIT A SPRINGLIKE 67 IN PHILLY, 70 IN BALTIMORE, AND 71 IN WASHINGTON, D.C. ! WE DON'T FORESEE ANYTHING THAT BALMY COMING UP ANYTIME SOON. HOWEVER, WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT THAT TEMPS HERE NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL. JUST HOW WARM WE EVENTUALLY GET HERE, HOW QUICKLY THE MILD WEATHER ARRIVES, AND HOW LONG IT LASTS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.

RIGHT NOW, THERE SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR BATTLE GOING ON BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO IN THE LONGER RANGE. THE EURO WANTS TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW COMING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES, WHILE THE GFS OPENS UP THAT TROF AND IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF THAT LATTER GFS SOLUTION IS RIGHT, THE WARMUP WILL KICK INTO GEAR QUICKER EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRAILING OUT OF A LOW THAT SEEMS DESTINED TO BE A "CUTTER" INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EURO, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS MUCH SLOWER, AND DOES NOT OPEN UP THE SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK. IF WE GO WITH THE EURO IDEA, THEN OUR WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WILL END UP BEING FRIDAY. WHAT'S MORE, THE EURO HAS BASICALLY NO COLD AIR COMING IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT QUITE MILD RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

OBVIOUSLY, WE HAVE SOME CHALLENGES TO DEAL WITH IN THE LONG RANGE. IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE DESCRIBED YESTERDAY SEEMS TO BE ON TARGET TODAY. A CLIPPER PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PA INTO UPSTATE NY, WITH STEADIER SNOWS IN FAR NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BRING ANY APPRECIABLE WEATHER AT ALL. WE DO EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT TOMORROW. AS IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE TOMORROW, SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO GET MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THAT WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY WIND HERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUR WEATHER WILL BE QUIET TOMORROW NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL TREND UPWARD SOMEWHAT, WITH THE MILDER OF THE TWO DAYS BEING SUNDAY. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH OF A SYSTEM TO BRING A SNOW (OR RAIN) SHOWER TO THE AREA. THEN, MOST OR ALL OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH A MIXED BAG OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE AND THE ACTUAL TROF AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, HOWEVER, A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT DRY.

LOOKING AHEAD, DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE HERE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY.