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01/03/2013

CORE OF THE COLD MOVES OUT FOR THE WEEKEND

ON THIS DATE BACK IN 2000, WE WERE IN THE MIDST OF AN UNUSUALLY WARM STRETCH OF WEATHER. TEMPS SOARED WELL INTO THE 50S AND 60S OVER A LARGE AREA FOR A FEW DAYS. IN FACT, ON JANUARY 4TH, 2000, THE TEMP HIT A SPRINGLIKE 67 IN PHILLY, 70 IN BALTIMORE, AND 71 IN WASHINGTON, D.C. ! WE DON'T FORESEE ANYTHING THAT BALMY COMING UP ANYTIME SOON. HOWEVER, WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT THAT TEMPS HERE NEXT WEEK WILL AVERAGE ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL. JUST HOW WARM WE EVENTUALLY GET HERE, HOW QUICKLY THE MILD WEATHER ARRIVES, AND HOW LONG IT LASTS WILL DEPEND ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA.

RIGHT NOW, THERE SEEMS TO BE A MAJOR BATTLE GOING ON BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO IN THE LONGER RANGE. THE EURO WANTS TO CLOSE OFF THE UPPER LOW COMING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES, WHILE THE GFS OPENS UP THAT TROF AND IS MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF THAT LATTER GFS SOLUTION IS RIGHT, THE WARMUP WILL KICK INTO GEAR QUICKER EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO, THE WARMTH WILL LIKELY PEAK ON WEDNESDAY, AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TRAILING OUT OF A LOW THAT SEEMS DESTINED TO BE A "CUTTER" INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE EURO, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS MUCH SLOWER, AND DOES NOT OPEN UP THE SOUTHWEST CLOSED LOW UNTIL LATER NEXT WEEK. IF WE GO WITH THE EURO IDEA, THEN OUR WARMEST DAY NEXT WEEK WILL END UP BEING FRIDAY. WHAT'S MORE, THE EURO HAS BASICALLY NO COLD AIR COMING IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM AND KEEPS IT QUITE MILD RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

OBVIOUSLY, WE HAVE SOME CHALLENGES TO DEAL WITH IN THE LONG RANGE. IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THAT WE DESCRIBED YESTERDAY SEEMS TO BE ON TARGET TODAY. A CLIPPER PASSING BY WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL PRODUCE SOME FLURRIES AND A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PA INTO UPSTATE NY, WITH STEADIER SNOWS IN FAR NORTHERN NY STATE AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. ELSEWHERE, THIS FEATURE WILL NOT BRING ANY APPRECIABLE WEATHER AT ALL. WE DO EXPECT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT TOMORROW. AS IT BECOMES MORE UNSTABLE TOMORROW, SOME PRETTY STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT WILL BE ABLE TO GET MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. THAT WILL RESULT IN A GUSTY WIND HERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

OUR WEATHER WILL BE QUIET TOMORROW NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH LESS IN THE WAY OF WIND. TEMPS THIS WEEKEND WILL TREND UPWARD SOMEWHAT, WITH THE MILDER OF THE TWO DAYS BEING SUNDAY. A LEAD SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. THAT MAY BE ENOUGH OF A SYSTEM TO BRING A SNOW (OR RAIN) SHOWER TO THE AREA. THEN, MOST OR ALL OF SUNDAY IS LOOKING DRY WITH A MIXED BAG OF CLOUDS AND SUN.

WITH A SECOND DISTURBANCE AND THE ACTUAL TROF AXIS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WE DO EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO BREAK OUT IN THE UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS, AS WELL AS NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, HOWEVER, A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW WILL PROBABLY KEEP IT DRY.

LOOKING AHEAD, DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE HERE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on January 3, 2013 | Permalink

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