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01/21/2013

COLDEST WEATHER IN 2 YEARS LIKELY TO CONCLUDE WITH SNOW

COLD, COLDER, AND COLDEST...THAT PRETTY MUCH SUMS UP OUR WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. IT IS COLD OUTSIDE NOW, AND IT IS CERTAINLY COLDER THAN IT WAS THIS PAST WEEKEND. IT WILL TURN EVEN COLDER IN THE SHORT TERM, BEHIND AN ARCTIC FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. THEN, THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE WINTER SEASON SO FAR WILL BE WITH US THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ALSO, THIS WILL END UP BEING OUR COLDEST SHOT OF THE LONGEST DURATION SINCE TWO YEARS AGO IN JANUARY OF 2011. IT IS VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT WE HAD A THREE DAY COLD SPELL THAT YEAR WITH TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE EXPECT HERE. THE DATES OF THAT COLD SNAP WERE AMAZINGLY...JANUARY 22ND, 23RD, AND 24TH!

TEMPS HERE WILL ATTEMPT TO MODERATE A BIT AT THE END OF THE WEEK, BUT THAT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM. FOLLOWING FRIDAY'S SYSTEM, A FRESH BATCH OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE REGION THIS COMING WEEKEND. AT THIS JUNCTURE, 850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WITH THAT AIR MASS DON'T LOOK QUITE AS LOW AS WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE HERE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THE AIR WILL END UP BEING ONE OF THOSE "SNEAKY COLD" AIR MASSES THAT PRODUCES COLDER TEMPS THAN WHAT FIRST MEETS THE EYE. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO ADJUST TEMPS DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT, SATURDAY, AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL LOOK AT MORE CAREFULLY AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. IT DOES APPEAR THAT A MORE AGGRESSIVE WARMING TREND COULD KICK IN NEXT WEEK.

IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT, WE HAVE TO WATCH THE SITUATION CAREFULLY THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA, AND HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO FALL. WE STILL FEEL THAT ONCEYOU GET EAST OF NYC, FROM PARTS OF LONG ISLAND AND CT EASTWARD, THEN WE ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 1-3" SNOWFALL AS THE LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.

THERE IS ANOTHER LOW NOW PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, AND THAT LOW WILL PROBABLY BE OVER EASTERN NY STATE OR VT BY MORNING. BEHIND THE TWO LOWS, A VERY WELL DEFINED PRESSURE TROF WILL EXTEND WEST TO EAST ACROSS NORTHERN NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THAT TROF, THE SNOWFALL WILL BE ENHANCED. CLOSER TO THE COAST, WHERE THERE IS INTERACTION WITH THE OCEAN, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY SNOW TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. SOMEWHERE BETWEEN BOSTON, MA AND PORTLAND, ME, THERE WILL BE UPWARDS TO A FOOT OF SNOW! MEANWHILE, AS YOU GET AWAY FROM THIS FOCUSED ZONE, COATINGS OF SNOW WILL BE MORE THE RULE SOUTH AND WEST OF NYC, WITH NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR SO LOCALLY. THE MOUNTAINS ARE OBVIOUSLY MOST LIKELY TO GET SOME OF THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WITH TONIGHT'S SETUP.

MOST OF THE TIME THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE DRY. HOWEVER, WITH A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR THURSDAY, WE EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH SOME SUNSHINE.

THEN, ALL OF OUR ATTENTION WILL TURN TO THE LATE WEEK STORM. THINGS LOOK PRETTY COLD RIGHT NOW, AND SO WE ARE LEANING VERY HEAVILY TOWARD A WIDESPREAD SNOW EVENT.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on January 21, 2013 | Permalink

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