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12/12/2012

ON THE FRINGE, FOR NOW...

IF YOU JUST LOOKED AT THE OVERALL UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, IT IS PRETTY EVIDENT THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW. ONE FAIRLY POTENT SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, AND ANOTHER FEATURE IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS NOT TOO FAR UPSTREAM FROM THERE. EVENTUALLY, WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN THAT WE HAVE, ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS IS GOING TO HOOK UP WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AND ALL OF A SUDDEN WE WILL BE THRUST INTO A WINTRY SCENARIO. FORTUNATELY, WE DON'T FORESEE THAT HAPPENING FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS.

A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW IS FORMING NOW OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S., IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THAT LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY THAT CAME THROUGH HERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THE WAVES INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY TOMORROW, RESULTING IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS HERE. THAT WILL TEND TO PREVENT TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM GETTING AS COLD AS THEY COULD GET TONIGHT. NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM US DOWN THE COAST, IT WILL BE A NASTY SCENARIO TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST PART OF TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN. CAPE HATTERAS, NC, E.G., WILL BE QUITE STORMY FOR A TIME! ALL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TOMORROW, PREDICTING THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAVE BY LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THAT WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HERE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL END UP BEING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR SO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHED OVER PA TOMORROW AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD TOMORROW NIGHT, THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND CHILLY TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A GOOD RANGE IN LOWS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY WILL BE ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE, AND AFTERNOON READINGS A BIT MILDER THAN TOMORROW. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE OUR BEST DAY WEATHER WISE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL IDEAS FROM YESTERDAY STILL SEEM TO BE ON TARGET, ALTHOUGH IT IS DEFINITELY LOOKING A BIT COOLER FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC ON SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD TOWARD US. SO, WE DO EXPECT A GENTLE AND SUBTLE PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THAT DAY. IN ADDITION, EVEN THOUGH WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY, WE WILL NOTICE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVING IN.

SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE WORST OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS WEATHER WISE. MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN BY OR BEFORE SUNDAY, AND OUR LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OFF THE OCEAN. SO, WE EXPECT A CLOUDY, COOL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN. 850 MB TEMPS, THICKNESSES, AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE JUST CHILLY ENOUGH WHEN THE PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY FOR SOMETHING FROZEN ONCE YOU GET NORTH OF A CERTAIN POINT. WHERE EXACTLY THAT LINE SETS UP IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE, BUT THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS SEEM TO BE ALMOST A SURE BET FOR SOME FRONT END PROBLEMS. WE STILL FEEL THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE A SECONDARY OR TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY, AFTER THE PRIMARY LOW INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKENS. AFTER THAT LOW GOES BY, THEN THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A BRIEF DRYING OUT PERIOD BEFORE A POSSIBLE MAJOR COASTAL DEVEOLOPS BY MID-WEEK.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on December 12, 2012 | Permalink

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