« November 2012 | Main | January 2013 »

December 2012

12/21/2012

WINTER ARRIVES ON THE CALENDAR AND WEATHER MAP

TODAYS STORM PRODUCED THE KINDS OF WILD WEATHER THAT WE OUTLINED THE PAST FEW DAYS...HEAVY RAIN, STRONG, GUSTY, AND IN SOME CASES DAMAGING WINDS, TEMP RISES FOLLOWED BY TEMP DROPS, ETC. THE ONE THING THAT REALLY DID NOT MATERIALIZE WAS THE THUNDER. A FEW REPORTS OF LIGHTNING SHOWED UP IN OH, NORTHWESTERN PA, AND UPSTATE NY. ON THE LATEST WEATHER MAP, WE SEE THE STORM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN NY STATE. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ON THAT LOW IS NOW DOWN TO 980 MB. THE OLD PRIMARY LOW HAS SINCE FILLED, AND THE TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT SHOWED UP REALLY WELL LATE LAST NIGHT INTO EARLIER TODAY HAS TAKEN OVER AS THE MAIN LOW. WE ARE IN A FAIRLY TIGHT WESTERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT NOW, AND THAT WILL TURN TO MORE NORTHWEST BY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUT SURELY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WHILE TONIGHT WILL CERTAINLY BE BLUSTERY, WE STILL EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS TO OCCUR DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE FLOW BECOMES WELL ALIGNED AND THE DEEP INSTABILITY BRINGS DOWN SOME VERY STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT. GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH SEEM TO BE A SURE BET, AND WE CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO OR PAST 50 MPH. AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING ALL ALONG, CLOUDS SEEM TO BE PRETTY DOMINANT TOMORROW, WITH THE LOW HEIGHTS AND CYCLONIC CURVATURE. IN ADDITION, WE DO EXPECT A FEW FLURRIES TOSURVIVE OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, DESPITE THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW. WHILE TONIGHT REALLY WON'T BE ALL THAT COLD FOR DECEMBER 21/22 STANDARDS, TEMPS TOMORROW WILL DEFINITELY STRUGGLE. MOST OF THE DAY, READINGS WILL BE IN THE 30S. OF COURSE, THE WIND WILL MAKE IT FEEL MUCH COLDER.

BY TOMORROW NIGHT, WE DO EXPECT SKIES TO TURN MOSTLY CLEAR AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE, AND A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS IN. THAT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A NICER DAY ON SUNDAY. OVERALL, WE EXPECT MORE SUNSHINE AND MUCH LESS WIND ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON READINGS AT LEAST A BIT HIGHER THAN TOMORROW.

OUR WEATHER WILL STAY QUIET INTO MONDAY. THEN, WE'VE GOT SOME POTENTIAL PROBLEMS CHRISTMAS EVE AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF CHRISTMAS DAY. A FRONT-RUNNING WAVE WILL HEAD NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW, SPREADING CLOUDS IN HERE ON MONDAY, FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF PRECIP. THE MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME HANDLING THIS FEATURE. THE GFS IS WEAKER WITH THE WAVE BUT ALSO COLDER LOOKING OVERALL, AND THE EURO IS STRONGER, FARTHER NORTH, AND ALSO WARMER LOOKING FROM THE LOW ON SOUTHWARD. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SNOW FROM THE SYSTEM, WHILE ODDS FAVOR MORE RAIN ONCE YOU GET SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE. EITHER WAY, THIS EVENT LOOKS FAIRLY SHORTLIVED, AND DRY WEATHER IS LIKELY TO RETURN DURING THE DAY ON CHRISTMAS. SKY CONDITIONS THAT DAY ARE QUESTIONABLE, AND WILL HAVE A BEARING ON HOW HIGH TEMPS GO.

LOOKING AHEAD, WE MAY HAVE A PRETTY MAJOR STORM ON OUR HANDS BY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OUR EARLIER THINKING WAS THAT THE STORM WOULD BE ANOTHER "CUTTER", HEADING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NOW, THE PATTERN LOOKS MORE BLOCKY, FORCING THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FARTHER SOUTH. IF THAT IS INDEED THE CASE, THEN WE WILL CERTAINLY HAVE MORE WINTRY PRECIP ON OUR HANDS THAN WE HAD BARGAINED FOR.

FOLLOWING THAT STORM, A HEALTHY SHOT OF COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. IN A NUTSHELL, WE ARE IN AN ACTIVE PATTERN, AND IT IS FINALLY LOOKING MORE LIKE WINTER.

12/12/2012

ON THE FRINGE, FOR NOW...

IF YOU JUST LOOKED AT THE OVERALL UPPER-AIR PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, IT IS PRETTY EVIDENT THAT THERE ARE A LOT OF SYSTEMS MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW. ONE FAIRLY POTENT SHORT WAVE IS NOW MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES, AND ANOTHER FEATURE IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST. YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS NOT TOO FAR UPSTREAM FROM THERE. EVENTUALLY, WITH THIS ACTIVE PATTERN THAT WE HAVE, ONE OF THESE SYSTEMS IS GOING TO HOOK UP WITH JUST ENOUGH COLD AIR AND ALL OF A SUDDEN WE WILL BE THRUST INTO A WINTRY SCENARIO. FORTUNATELY, WE DON'T FORESEE THAT HAPPENING FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE DAYS.

A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE LOW IS FORMING NOW OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S., IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THAT LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BOUNDARY THAT CAME THROUGH HERE EARLIER IN THE WEEK. WE WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE NORTHWEST FRINGE OF THE WAVES INFLUENCE TONIGHT AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY TOMORROW, RESULTING IN SOME HIGH CLOUDS HERE. THAT WILL TEND TO PREVENT TEMPS ACROSS OUR REGION FROM GETTING AS COLD AS THEY COULD GET TONIGHT. NOT TOO FAR AWAY FROM US DOWN THE COAST, IT WILL BE A NASTY SCENARIO TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST PART OF TOMORROW WITH GUSTY WINDS AND RAIN. CAPE HATTERAS, NC, E.G., WILL BE QUITE STORMY FOR A TIME! ALL OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TOMORROW, PREDICTING THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE TO LEAVE BY LATE MORNING AND MIDDAY. THAT WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HERE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. TEMPS TOMORROW WILL END UP BEING FAIRLY SIMILAR TO TODAY...GIVE OR TAKE A DEGREE OR SO. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHED OVER PA TOMORROW AND THEN ONLY SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD TOMORROW NIGHT, THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND CHILLY TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A GOOD RANGE IN LOWS ACROSS THE AREA.

FRIDAY WILL BE ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS FOR THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, A LIGHT WESTERLY BREEZE, AND AFTERNOON READINGS A BIT MILDER THAN TOMORROW. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE OUR BEST DAY WEATHER WISE FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, THE OVERALL IDEAS FROM YESTERDAY STILL SEEM TO BE ON TARGET, ALTHOUGH IT IS DEFINITELY LOOKING A BIT COOLER FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC ON SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL NOSE SOUTHWARD TOWARD US. SO, WE DO EXPECT A GENTLE AND SUBTLE PUSH OF SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THAT DAY. IN ADDITION, EVEN THOUGH WE EXPECT IT TO REMAIN DRY ON SATURDAY, WE WILL NOTICE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF CLOUDS MOVING IN.

SUNDAY STILL APPEARS TO BE THE WORST OF THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS WEATHER WISE. MOISTURE FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN BY OR BEFORE SUNDAY, AND OUR LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW THAT DAY WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST OFF THE OCEAN. SO, WE EXPECT A CLOUDY, COOL DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST A BIT OF RAIN. 850 MB TEMPS, THICKNESSES, AND SURFACE TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE JUST CHILLY ENOUGH WHEN THE PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY FOR SOMETHING FROZEN ONCE YOU GET NORTH OF A CERTAIN POINT. WHERE EXACTLY THAT LINE SETS UP IS STILL UP FOR DEBATE, BUT THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS SEEM TO BE ALMOST A SURE BET FOR SOME FRONT END PROBLEMS. WE STILL FEEL THAT THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL EVENTUALLY HAVE A SECONDARY OR TRIPLE POINT LOW DEVELOP SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY, AFTER THE PRIMARY LOW INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND WEAKENS. AFTER THAT LOW GOES BY, THEN THERE SHOULD BE AT LEAST A BRIEF DRYING OUT PERIOD BEFORE A POSSIBLE MAJOR COASTAL DEVEOLOPS BY MID-WEEK.

12/11/2012

SNOOZE & CRUISE TILL SUNDAY

THE OVERALL SCENARIO FOR OUR WEATHER HERE DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMINGWEEKEND BASICALLY LOOKS THE SAME TODAY AS IT DID YESTERDAY. THE COLD FRONT THAT CAUSED A BIT OF RAIN HEREAND PUT AN END TO OUR SPELL OF MILD WEATHER IS NOW OFF THE EAST COAST. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY STALLED OUT OFFSHORE, AND A WEAK SURFACE WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG IT EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS. A HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE NOW MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES WILL INTERACT WITH THE FRONT TOMORROW, CAUSING ANOTHER WAVE TO FORM ALONG THE BOUNDARY NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S. THAT FEATURE WILL THEN RUN NORTHEASTWARD LATE TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, STAYING OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH WAVE #1 AND WAVE #2 WILL HAVE NO MAJOR BEARING ON WEATHER HERE AS FAR AS PRECIP IS CONCERNED, THEY WILL PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS AT TIMES. DURING TOMORROW, THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT IN SHOWING SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND HERE. IF THE CIRRUS DECK IS THICK ENOUGH, THEN THAT MAY TEND TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. OTHERWISE, WE EXPECT A PARTLY CLOUDY, COLDER NIGHT COMING UP TONIGHT, FOLLOWED BY A DRY, TRANQUIL, AND SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY TOMORROW.

WITH THE SECOND WAVE HEADING FARTHER OUT TO SEA LATER TOMORROW NIGHT, SKIES WILL TURN OUT CLEAR. TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE ABOUT AS COLD AS TONIGHT, IF NOT A BIT LOWER.

BY THURSDAY, WE EXPECT A GOOD SIZED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD INTO PA, AND THEN SLOWLY SINK SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRETCH OF GORGEOUS WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION, ESPECIALLY FOR MID-DECEMBER STANDARDS. BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL FEATURE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL STILL BE A LITTLE ON THE CHILLY SIDE AND PROBABLY NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM TOMORROW'S READINGS. THEN, WITH THE HIGH SINKING A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY, OUR FLOW WILL TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT COMBINED WITH A BIT WARMER TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO SLIGHTLY MILDER AFTERNOON READINGS.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY STILL LOOKS PRETTY DECENT WEATHER WISE. WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME CLOUDS BY SATURDAY, BUT DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE, AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL.

ALL INDICATIONS ARE NOW THAT THE WEATHER WILL TURN NASTIER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK. IT IS OBVIOUSLY WAY TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT DETAILS FOR THAT NEXT STORM. HOWEVER, IT MAY BE A SITUATION WHERE A PRIMARY LOW TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD ONLY SO FAR INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BEFORE A TRIPLE POINT OR SECONDARY LOW TAKES OVER SOMEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST. IF THAT WERE TO HAPPEN, THEN MILD AIR WILL BE CUT OFF AT THE PASS NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF A CERTAIN POINT. THAT COULD LEAD TO SOME WINTRY FORMS OF PRECIP FROM PARTS OF NY STATE INTO NEW ENGLAND. EVEN FARTHER SOUTH, SOME FRONT END AND BACK END MIXING MAY OCCUR. OF COURSE, IF YOU GO FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN IT IS GOING TO BLOW TORCH FOR AWHILE. FORTUNATELY, WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE THE DETAILS OF THAT NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER EVENT HERE.