« ALL SANDY, ALL THE TIME | Main | ELECTION DAY IS CALM BEFORE NOR'EASTER »

11/02/2012

WINDY WEEKEND. NO'REASTER NEARBY NEXT WEEK?

THE WEATHER PATTERN HERE THROUGH NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY LOOKS CHILLY WITH A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. IT'S ACTUALLY BEEN QUITE A LONG TIME SINCE WE HAVE HAD AN EXTENDED STRETCH LIKE THIS OF PERSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE REASON FOR THE STUBBORN CHILL IS VERY SIMPLE. THE NAO IS STRONGLY NEGATIVE NOW, AND IS FORECAST TO STAY NEGATIVE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GENERAL TROF POSITION WILL WANT TO STAY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR AWHILE LONGER. SO, DON'T EXPECT ANY MILD OR WARM WEATHER ANYTIME SOON.

IN THE LONGER RANGE, PERHAPS BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND, THE PATTERN WILL TRY TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AND TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO AT LEAST MORE NORMAL LEVELS, AND PROBABLY EVENTUALLY TO ABOVE NORMAL. THAT WILL CERTAINLY BE A VERY WELCOME CHANGE IF AND WHEN IT COMES TO PASS. IN THE MEANTIME, WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH READINGS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE NOVEMBER THAN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.

AS WE SUSPECTED, IT DID BECOME VERY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST RADAR STILL INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT THERE, AND WE WILL HAVE TO NOWCAST THIS SITUATION AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL HAVE TO COVER FOR A BRIEF SHOWER HERE AND THERE THIS EVENING. LATER ON TONIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND A GOOD DOWNSLOPING BREEZE BLOWS ALL NIGHT. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON AVERAGE.

OUR WINDIEST TIME IS COMING UP TOMORROW WITH A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED FLOW, A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT, ENERGETIC WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE DECK, AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THAT WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12-25 MPH TOMORROW, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR EVEN 35 MPH ON OCCASION. WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE COULD CERTAINLY HAMPER SOME OF THE CLEANUP OPERATIONS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF SANDY. OVERALL, WE EXPECT THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP THINGS DRY HERE. HOWEVER, AS WE TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY, SOME STRATOCU WILL SPILL OVER FROM THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL STILL BE BRISK, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER. GUSTS ON SUNDAY MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 25 MPH, AND SKIES WILL TEND TO BE A TAD SUNNIER.

THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT WERE CONCERNED ABOUT A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NOW SEEMS TO WANT TO STAY SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THAT FEATURE WILL USHER IN A FRESH BATCH OF CHILLY AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, REINFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMP PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE DRY HERE FOR MONDAY AND ALSO ELECTION DAY ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY, THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANOTHER COASTAL STORM SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THAT STORM WILL BE NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH, IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, AND EVEN SOME WET SNOW ON ITS WESTERN FLANK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH GROUND. SINCE A LOT OF THE PROTECTION HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE BEACH SITES FROM SANDY, THIS STORM MAY CAUSE MORE COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE THE CASE WITH A STORM OF THAT MAGNITUDE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS NEXT STORM WILL CONSUME A LOT OF OUR ATTENTION AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on November 2, 2012 | Permalink

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00e555030a2c8834017d3d385f50970c

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference WINDY WEEKEND. NO'REASTER NEARBY NEXT WEEK?:

Comments

The comments to this entry are closed.