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11/09/2012

WARMING TREND STALLS TOMORROW, RESUMES SUNDAY

THE THREE MONTH PERIOD OF THE YEAR, OR ONE QUARTER SLICE OF THE ANNUAL PIE, WITH THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE AND THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT, IS OFTEN CALLED SOLAR WINTER. THAT PERIOD RUNS FROM EARLY NOVEMBER TO EARLY FEBRUARY, AND IS CENTERED ON THE WINTER SOLSTICE IN DECEMBER. THE DECREASE IN SOLAR INSOLATION HAS DEFINITELY BECOME QUITE NOTICEABLE IN RECENT WEEKS. UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE TO TREND DOWN EVEN FURTHER ON THE CURVE BEFORE BEGINNING THE SLOW RECOVERY AGAIN IN JANUARY. THE SHORT DAYS ARE ALWAYS ACCENTUATED WHEN WE SWITCH BACK TO STANDARD TIME, LEADING TO VERY EARLY SUNSETS.

DESPITE THE REDUCED SUNLIGHT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE DEFINITELY DID GET TO THE SEE SUN TODAY. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR SUNNIEST DAY, WITH MONDAY PROBABLY COMING IN SECOND. THE CLOUDIEST DAY OF THE NEXT THREE STILL LOOKS TO BE TOMORROW.

A SURFACE FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THAT FRONT IS STILL PUSHING ALONG AS A COLD FRONT, WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN END HAS PRETTY MUCH STALLED OUT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, BEFORE STALLING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE THIS WEEKEND AS A GOOD SIZED RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY, AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKS ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST. WHAT THIS ALL BOILS DOWN TO IS AN EVENTUAL TREND TO SOME VERY NICE WEATHER HERE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER.

BEFORE WE CAN GET THERE, HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION THAT WILL SET UP TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL SOME DEBATE AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SHOWERS GET, BUT RIGHT NOW WE FEEL THAT SOMEWHERE NEAR I-80 MAY BE A GOOD BET. THAT BEING SAID, IT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKING IF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MADE IT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THAT, AS THE PRECIP WILL TRY TO RUN SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE THICKENSS LINES. ARGUING AGAINST THE SHOWERS MAKING IT VERY FAR SOUTHWARD TOMORROW IS THE FACT THAT HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE STEADY STATE ALL DAY, BUT WILL ACTUALLY BE STEADILY RISING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME CLOUDINESS HERE TOMORROW. WE EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, WHILE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE MORE DOMINANT FARTHER NORTH THROUGH PA, MUCH OF NJ, AND INTO NY STATE.

WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS HERE TOMORROW, WE DO HAVE TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO BE TOO AMBITIOUS WITH OUR HIGH TEMP PREDICTION. SPEAKING OF TEMPS, WE SEEM TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE RIGHT NOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, PLACES NEAR THE COAST WITH A WIND OFF THE WATER WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THOSE TWO DAYS.

AS FOR THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, THINGS DO LOOK SOMEWHAT FASTER TODAY THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. FOR THAT REASON, WE CAN SEE SHOWERS WITH THAT FRONT GETTING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CARRYING OVER INTO PART OF TUESDAY. WITH THE FASTER SPEED OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPS THAT DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A HEALTHY SHOT OF MUCH CHILLIER, BUT DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on November 9, 2012 | Permalink

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