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11/12/2012

SO LONG 60s. FIGHT TO 50 REST OF THE WEEK

COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS LIKE LAST MONDAY AND THE MONDAY BEFORE, TODAY WAS A WALK IN THE PARK FROM A FORECASTING STANDPOINT! TWO WEEKS AGO, WE WERE GEARING UP FOR SANDY'S LANDFALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OF COURSE, LAST WEEK, WE WERE FACED WITH A VERY DIFFICULT FORECASTING SITUATION CONCERNING THE MID-WEEK NOR'EASTER.

ON THIS FIRST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK, WE DO HAVE SOME CHALLENGES...BOTH IN THE SHORT TERM, AND ALSO IN THE LONG RANGE...BUT NOTHING COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CURRENTLY, A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OUT TO OUR WEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS UP REALLY NICELY ON THE PRESSURE ANALYSIS, BUT THE DEMARCATION IS EVEN SHARPER WHEN YOU LOOK AT TEMPS AND WIND DIRECTION. AT 2 PM, TEMPS WERE HOVERING NEAR THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN PITTSBURGH. MEANWHILE, ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, IT WAS DOWN TO 47 IN COLUMBUS AND 36 IN DAYTON, OH. IT IS ACTUALLY SHOWING A BIT ON THE VERY BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP, WHERE THE COLD AIR IS CATCHING UP TO THE MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT SAME THING COULD HAPPEN ALL THE WAY THROUGH OHIO AND INTO WESTERN PA AND UPSTATE NY. IN FACT, OVER THE HIGH GROUND FROM GARRETT COUNTY, MD UP THROUGH THE LAURELS OF SOUTHWESTERN PA, INTO THE HIGH GROUND OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL PA, AND INTO NY STATE, A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT.

SINCE MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD, WE FEEL THAT RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 1/4" TO 1/3" SEEM MOST LIKELY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH UPWARDS TO 1/2" FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. SO FAR, WE HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE OR NO THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THE SHOWALTER INDEX DOES HINT THAT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOMORROW AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. WE HAVE SEEN PRETTY GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING WITH THE FROPA OUT TO OUR WEST TODAY ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 MPH GUSTS, AND THE SAME THING COULD HAPPEN FARTHER EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ALONG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK MAY HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA BY FROPA TIME. IN ANY CASE, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS RIGHTBEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AT 12Z (7 AM) TOMORROW, WE EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BE FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS LONG ISLAND...JUST EAST OF NYC, AND JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELMARVA BEACHES. RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LAST FOR AWHILE TOMORROW...INTO THE MIDDAY OR EARLY P.M. HOURS FROM I-95 OVER THE COAST, WHILE RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS AND ENDS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST IN PLACES SUCH AS THE HUDSON VALLEY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, AND DOWN TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON.

TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE TRICKY. UNTIL THE FRONT GETS HERE, IT WILL STAY QUITE MILD. THE 24 HOUR MAX TEMP FOR TOMORROW WILL BE REACHED IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING, AND WILL BE VERY BALMY. HOWEVER, BY MID MORNING, IT WILL HAVE COOLED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. IN THE PLACES WHERE THE SUN COMES BACK OUT EARLY ENOUGH TOMORROW, TEMPS WILL RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES. HOWEVER, IN THE ZONE WHERE CLOUDS HANG IN TOUGH DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WE'LL PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO MOVEMENT ON THE TEMPS. FOR THAT REASON, WE ARE FORECASTING VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN MANY AREAS TOMORROW FROM THE EARLY MORNING LOW TO THE AFTERNOON HIGH.

DRY, COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN TOMORROW NIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ALL OF THE MODELS, TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER, BRING A VORT MAX ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT, AND PUSH THAT AWAY FROM US ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE SO MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT THAT THE MAX WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DO MORE THAN PRODUCE A FEW HIGH OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK IS LOOKING QUIET AND DRY, WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL.

IN THE LONG RANGE, WE MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A DEVELOPING STORM OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SYSTEM COULD TURN INTO ANOTHER WIND AND RAIN PRODUCER FOR US.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on November 12, 2012 | Permalink

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