« CHILL IS HERE TO STAY. COASTAL CONCERN NEXT WEEK. | Main | SNOOZE & CRUISE TILL SUNDAY »

11/14/2012

JURY STILL OUT ON NEXT WEEK'S POSSIBLE NOR'EASTER

AS WE APPROACH THE MIDWAY POINT OF THIS MONTH, WE ARE FACED WITH A PRETTY TAME WEATHER PATTERN...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING. THE BIG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS CENTERED OUT IN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NY-QUEBEC BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SETTING UP SHOP OVER EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A WEAK FEATURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, AND AN AXIS OF VORTICITY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER GOOD SIZED HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THAT HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD OVER INTO QUEBEC,CANADA BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOL OR CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING EXTREME.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDS AROUND HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SOME OF IT HIGH OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT SOME OF IT ALSO LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A GOOD RULE OF THUMB TO FOLLOW AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE, IS THAT ANY AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS TENDS TO BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE THAN AT TIMES OF THE YEAR WHEN THE SUN IS HIGHER IN THE SKY. IT ACTUALLY SEEMS LIKE WE WILL SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN IT MAY BRIEFLY TREND CLEARER AFTER THAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

AS FOR TEMPS, WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN READINGS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. HOWEVER, AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, NO REALLY MILD OR WARM WEATHER IS ON THE WAY ANYTIME SOON. LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN COMING UP, THERE IS NO SIGN OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ANYTIME IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST, AND ITS POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE EAST COAST. ALL INDICATORS ARE POINTING TO THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S., AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF, AND THE ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE. THE BIG QUESTION THAT WE STILL HAVE TO RESOLVE IS...HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST WILL THAT STORM TRACK OR STAY, AND WHAT KIND OF TIME FRAME ARE WE LOOKING AT? WE CAN ALL SEE THE SCENARIO WHEREBY IT GETS WINDY ALONG THE COAST FOR A TWO OR THREE DAY PERIOD, GIVEN THE GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OCEAN STORM AND THE BIG HIGH UP IN EASTERN CANADA. WE CAN ALSO ENVISION THIS EVOLVING INTO A NASTY RAIN EVENT FOR AT LEAST THE EAST COAST, IF NOT FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE OCEAN STORM STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE WATER, AND NEVER REALLY HAS ANY MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE EAST COAST WEATHER...OTHER THAN PERHAPS CLOUDS AND A NOTICEABLE BREEZE FOR AWHILE. SINCE IT IS ONLY WEDNESDAY, AND WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE OUR THINKING, IT IS PROBABLY A WISE MOVE TO KEEP OPTIONS OPEN AT THIS JUNCTURE.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on November 14, 2012 | Permalink

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00e555030a2c8834017ee51fbf0f970d

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference JURY STILL OUT ON NEXT WEEK'S POSSIBLE NOR'EASTER:

Comments

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear on this weblog until the author has approved them.

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In.