« October 2012 | Main | December 2012 »

November 2012

11/14/2012

JURY STILL OUT ON NEXT WEEK'S POSSIBLE NOR'EASTER

AS WE APPROACH THE MIDWAY POINT OF THIS MONTH, WE ARE FACED WITH A PRETTY TAME WEATHER PATTERN...AT LEAST FOR THE TIME BEING. THE BIG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS CENTERED OUT IN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY HAS NOW SHIFTED NORTHEASTWARD TO JUST NORTH OF THE NY-QUEBEC BORDER. THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FURTHER TO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, SETTING UP SHOP OVER EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER, IT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD US THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTER A WEAK FEATURE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, AND AN AXIS OF VORTICITY MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER GOOD SIZED HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES. THAT HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY HEAD OVER INTO QUEBEC,CANADA BY EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH DRY WEATHER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE COOL OR CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL...BUT CERTAINLY NOTHING EXTREME.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUDS AROUND HERE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SOME OF IT HIGH OR MID LEVEL MOISTURE, BUT SOME OF IT ALSO LOW LEVEL CLOUDINESS. A GOOD RULE OF THUMB TO FOLLOW AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE, IS THAT ANY AMOUNT OF CLOUDINESS TENDS TO BE MUCH MORE NOTICEABLE THAN AT TIMES OF THE YEAR WHEN THE SUN IS HIGHER IN THE SKY. IT ACTUALLY SEEMS LIKE WE WILL SEE A BIT OF AN UPTICK IN CLOUDS IN THE SHORT TERM, THEN IT MAY BRIEFLY TREND CLEARER AFTER THAT AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA.

AS FOR TEMPS, WE WILL PROBABLY SEE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN READINGS OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. HOWEVER, AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, NO REALLY MILD OR WARM WEATHER IS ON THE WAY ANYTIME SOON. LOOKING AT THE OVERALL PATTERN COMING UP, THERE IS NO SIGN OF UNSEASONABLY WARM WEATHER ANYTIME IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

AS WE GET INTO SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THE FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM OFF THE EAST COAST, AND ITS POSSIBLE IMPACTS ON THE EAST COAST. ALL INDICATORS ARE POINTING TO THE FORMATION OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOMEWHERE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE U.S., AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF CLOSES OFF, AND THE ENERGY ENCOUNTERS THE NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE OFFSHORE. THE BIG QUESTION THAT WE STILL HAVE TO RESOLVE IS...HOW CLOSE TO THE EAST COAST WILL THAT STORM TRACK OR STAY, AND WHAT KIND OF TIME FRAME ARE WE LOOKING AT? WE CAN ALL SEE THE SCENARIO WHEREBY IT GETS WINDY ALONG THE COAST FOR A TWO OR THREE DAY PERIOD, GIVEN THE GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE OCEAN STORM AND THE BIG HIGH UP IN EASTERN CANADA. WE CAN ALSO ENVISION THIS EVOLVING INTO A NASTY RAIN EVENT FOR AT LEAST THE EAST COAST, IF NOT FARTHER INLAND. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO THE CHANCE THAT THE OCEAN STORM STAYS WELL OUT OVER THE WATER, AND NEVER REALLY HAS ANY MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE EAST COAST WEATHER...OTHER THAN PERHAPS CLOUDS AND A NOTICEABLE BREEZE FOR AWHILE. SINCE IT IS ONLY WEDNESDAY, AND WE HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO FINE TUNE OUR THINKING, IT IS PROBABLY A WISE MOVE TO KEEP OPTIONS OPEN AT THIS JUNCTURE.

11/13/2012

CHILL IS HERE TO STAY. COASTAL CONCERN NEXT WEEK.

MUCH CHILLIER AIR HAS INVADED OUR AREA TODAY BEHIND THE SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST. AS WE SUSPECTED, IN AREAS THAT STAYED MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY, TEMPS REALLY DIDN'T MOVE MUCH AT ALL AFTER THE INITIAL PLUNGE.

THE RAIN PATTERN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE LINES THAT WE DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO, MORE RAIN FELL. MOUNT POCONO PICKED UP A LITTLE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN, WHILE ABE GOT 0.73" AND LANCASTER PICKED UP 0.78". THERE WAS EVEN 1.06" AT DULLES AIRPORT. HOWEVER, AS YOU HEADED FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND DOWN TO THE COAST, RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GENERALLY LIGHTER FROM THIS SYSTEM. BWI PICKED UP 0.44", PHL GOT 0.14", ACY HAD 0.16", AND NYC RECEIVED A PIDDLY 0.09". RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND WERE ALSO ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST, AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH A TRAILING VORT MAX COMING ALONG IN THE FLOW, THE RAIN WILL BE SLUGGISH TO LEAVE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND, AND JUST WEST OF THERE, THE CLOUDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO CLEAR OUT.

TOMORROW'S WEATHER LOOKS VERY NICE AND PRETTY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE, THANKS TO GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. A GOOD SIZED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, REACHING LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY TOMORROW EVENING. THAT HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP SHOP OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR A FEW DAYS, AND CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY, QUIET, AND TRANQUIL WEATHER HERE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY. WITH A WEATHER MAP SETUP LIKE THAT, OUR WIND FLOW WILL STAY NORTHEASTERLY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, KEEPING TEMPS HERE ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL.

LATER THIS WEEK, WE WILL PROBABLY NOTICE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS AS A FEATURE HEADS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER, THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE ANY TIME PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY THAT WILL BE ANY WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY . WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS, WE DO EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPS HERE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....BUT THE EMPHASIS WILL BE ON SLIGHT.

IN THE LONGER RANGE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THERE SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST OR MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THAT OVERALL SCENARIO SEEMS VERY REASONABLE, AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROF TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THAT, IN TURN, WILL INTERACT WITH A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THAT WAVE AND THE BIG HIGH UP IN EASTERN CANADA WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT. WHAT THAT ALL BOILS DOWN TO FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS A SPELL OF CLOUDY, POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE AT LEAST BREEZY IF NOT DOWNRIGHT WINDY ALONG THE COAST, GIVEN THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHETHER THAT STORM ENDS UP BEING A MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER HERE, OR JUST A "THORN IN OUR SIDE", REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

SINCE THE STORM IS LIKELY TO BE A LONG DURATION EVENT, IT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN LATER DISCUSSIONS.

11/12/2012

SO LONG 60s. FIGHT TO 50 REST OF THE WEEK

COMPARED TO WHAT IT WAS LIKE LAST MONDAY AND THE MONDAY BEFORE, TODAY WAS A WALK IN THE PARK FROM A FORECASTING STANDPOINT! TWO WEEKS AGO, WE WERE GEARING UP FOR SANDY'S LANDFALL DURING THE EVENING HOURS. OF COURSE, LAST WEEK, WE WERE FACED WITH A VERY DIFFICULT FORECASTING SITUATION CONCERNING THE MID-WEEK NOR'EASTER.

ON THIS FIRST DAY OF THE WORK WEEK, WE DO HAVE SOME CHALLENGES...BOTH IN THE SHORT TERM, AND ALSO IN THE LONG RANGE...BUT NOTHING COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. CURRENTLY, A VERY WELL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OUT TO OUR WEST. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOWS UP REALLY NICELY ON THE PRESSURE ANALYSIS, BUT THE DEMARCATION IS EVEN SHARPER WHEN YOU LOOK AT TEMPS AND WIND DIRECTION. AT 2 PM, TEMPS WERE HOVERING NEAR THE 70 DEGREE MARK IN PITTSBURGH. MEANWHILE, ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE FRONT, IT WAS DOWN TO 47 IN COLUMBUS AND 36 IN DAYTON, OH. IT IS ACTUALLY SHOWING A BIT ON THE VERY BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP, WHERE THE COLD AIR IS CATCHING UP TO THE MOISTURE LINGERING BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THAT SAME THING COULD HAPPEN ALL THE WAY THROUGH OHIO AND INTO WESTERN PA AND UPSTATE NY. IN FACT, OVER THE HIGH GROUND FROM GARRETT COUNTY, MD UP THROUGH THE LAURELS OF SOUTHWESTERN PA, INTO THE HIGH GROUND OF NORTHWEST AND NORTHCENTRAL PA, AND INTO NY STATE, A SMALL ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER TONIGHT.

SINCE MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD, WE FEEL THAT RAIN AMOUNTS FROM THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AMOUNTS IN THE RANGE OF 1/4" TO 1/3" SEEM MOST LIKELY IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR, WITH UPWARDS TO 1/2" FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. SO FAR, WE HAVE SEEN VERY LITTLE OR NO THUNDER WITH THIS EVENT. THAT WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE TO BE THE CASE AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THE SHOWALTER INDEX DOES HINT THAT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT IN A FEW SPOTS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TOMORROW AS THE FRONT COMES THROUGH. WE HAVE SEEN PRETTY GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING WITH THE FROPA OUT TO OUR WEST TODAY ON THE ORDER OF 35-45 MPH GUSTS, AND THE SAME THING COULD HAPPEN FARTHER EAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ALONG. A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MOVING OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS JUST OFF THE DECK MAY HAVE SHIFTED OUT OF THE AREA BY FROPA TIME. IN ANY CASE, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS RIGHTBEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AT 12Z (7 AM) TOMORROW, WE EXPECT THIS BOUNDARY TO BE FROM CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS LONG ISLAND...JUST EAST OF NYC, AND JUST ABOUT ON TOP OF THE JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELMARVA BEACHES. RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LAST FOR AWHILE TOMORROW...INTO THE MIDDAY OR EARLY P.M. HOURS FROM I-95 OVER THE COAST, WHILE RAIN TAPERS OFF TO SHOWERS AND ENDS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST IN PLACES SUCH AS THE HUDSON VALLEY, THE LEHIGH VALLEY, AND DOWN TO THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SUBURBS OF BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON.

TEMPS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS ARE TRICKY. UNTIL THE FRONT GETS HERE, IT WILL STAY QUITE MILD. THE 24 HOUR MAX TEMP FOR TOMORROW WILL BE REACHED IN THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING, AND WILL BE VERY BALMY. HOWEVER, BY MID MORNING, IT WILL HAVE COOLED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. IN THE PLACES WHERE THE SUN COMES BACK OUT EARLY ENOUGH TOMORROW, TEMPS WILL RECOVER SEVERAL DEGREES. HOWEVER, IN THE ZONE WHERE CLOUDS HANG IN TOUGH DEEPER INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WE'LL PROBABLY SEE LITTLE OR NO MOVEMENT ON THE TEMPS. FOR THAT REASON, WE ARE FORECASTING VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN MANY AREAS TOMORROW FROM THE EARLY MORNING LOW TO THE AFTERNOON HIGH.

DRY, COLDER WEATHER WILL SETTLE IN TOMORROW NIGHT. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT ALL OF THE MODELS, TO ONE DEGREE OR ANOTHER, BRING A VORT MAX ACROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT, AND PUSH THAT AWAY FROM US ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. IT APPEARS THAT THE AIR MASS WILL BE SO MUCH DRIER BEHIND THE FRONT THAT THE MAX WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DO MORE THAN PRODUCE A FEW HIGH OR MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THE BALANCE OF THE WORK WEEK IS LOOKING QUIET AND DRY, WITH TEMPS RUNNING ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL.

IN THE LONG RANGE, WE MAY EVENTUALLY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A DEVELOPING STORM OFF THE EAST COAST BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SYSTEM COULD TURN INTO ANOTHER WIND AND RAIN PRODUCER FOR US.

11/09/2012

WARMING TREND STALLS TOMORROW, RESUMES SUNDAY

THE THREE MONTH PERIOD OF THE YEAR, OR ONE QUARTER SLICE OF THE ANNUAL PIE, WITH THE LOWEST SUN ANGLE AND THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT, IS OFTEN CALLED SOLAR WINTER. THAT PERIOD RUNS FROM EARLY NOVEMBER TO EARLY FEBRUARY, AND IS CENTERED ON THE WINTER SOLSTICE IN DECEMBER. THE DECREASE IN SOLAR INSOLATION HAS DEFINITELY BECOME QUITE NOTICEABLE IN RECENT WEEKS. UNFORTUNATELY, WE HAVE TO TREND DOWN EVEN FURTHER ON THE CURVE BEFORE BEGINNING THE SLOW RECOVERY AGAIN IN JANUARY. THE SHORT DAYS ARE ALWAYS ACCENTUATED WHEN WE SWITCH BACK TO STANDARD TIME, LEADING TO VERY EARLY SUNSETS.

DESPITE THE REDUCED SUNLIGHT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE DEFINITELY DID GET TO THE SEE SUN TODAY. DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE OUR SUNNIEST DAY, WITH MONDAY PROBABLY COMING IN SECOND. THE CLOUDIEST DAY OF THE NEXT THREE STILL LOOKS TO BE TOMORROW.

A SURFACE FRONT NOW STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO MICHIGAN AND INTO EASTERN ONTARIO. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THAT FRONT IS STILL PUSHING ALONG AS A COLD FRONT, WHILE THE SOUTHWESTERN END HAS PRETTY MUCH STALLED OUT. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT, BEFORE STALLING OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE THIS WEEKEND AS A GOOD SIZED RIDGE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, THE FRONT WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO PUSH NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY, AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM PARKS ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST. WHAT THIS ALL BOILS DOWN TO IS AN EVENTUAL TREND TO SOME VERY NICE WEATHER HERE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF NOVEMBER.

BEFORE WE CAN GET THERE, HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE TO CONTEND WITH A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION THAT WILL SET UP TOMORROW. THERE IS STILL SOME DEBATE AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH ANY SHOWERS GET, BUT RIGHT NOW WE FEEL THAT SOMEWHERE NEAR I-80 MAY BE A GOOD BET. THAT BEING SAID, IT WOULD NOT BE TOTALLY SHOCKING IF A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE MADE IT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THAT, AS THE PRECIP WILL TRY TO RUN SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE THICKENSS LINES. ARGUING AGAINST THE SHOWERS MAKING IT VERY FAR SOUTHWARD TOMORROW IS THE FACT THAT HEIGHTS WILL NOT BE STEADY STATE ALL DAY, BUT WILL ACTUALLY BE STEADILY RISING. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WE WILL AT LEAST HAVE TO CONTEND WITH SOME CLOUDINESS HERE TOMORROW. WE EXPECT A MIX OF CLOUDS AND SUN SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, WHILE CLOUDS WILL TEND TO BE MORE DOMINANT FARTHER NORTH THROUGH PA, MUCH OF NJ, AND INTO NY STATE.

WITH RATHER LIGHT WINDS HERE TOMORROW, WE DO HAVE TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO BE TOO AMBITIOUS WITH OUR HIGH TEMP PREDICTION. SPEAKING OF TEMPS, WE SEEM TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE RIGHT NOW ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, PLACES NEAR THE COAST WITH A WIND OFF THE WATER WILL DEFINITELY BE COOLER THOSE TWO DAYS.

AS FOR THE SPEED AND TIMING OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT, THINGS DO LOOK SOMEWHAT FASTER TODAY THAN THEY DID YESTERDAY. FOR THAT REASON, WE CAN SEE SHOWERS WITH THAT FRONT GETTING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN CARRYING OVER INTO PART OF TUESDAY. WITH THE FASTER SPEED OF THE FRONT, HIGH TEMPS THAT DAY WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE MORNING, FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A HEALTHY SHOT OF MUCH CHILLIER, BUT DRIER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

11/05/2012

ELECTION DAY IS CALM BEFORE NOR'EASTER

ALTHOUGH THIS UPCOMING NOR'EASTER DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL NOT HAVE A NAME, WE CAN DEFINITELY REFER TO IT IN DIFFERENT WAYS…"KICKING YOU WHEN YOU'RE DONE STORM", "POURING SALT IN YOUR WOUNDS STORM", OR PERHAPS THE "ADDING INSULT TO INJURY STORM". THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT, TAKEN ALL BY ITSELF, THIS UPCOMING STORM WOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SCALE AS FAR AS NOR'EASTERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE STORM IS GOING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS, ON THE ORDER OF 1-2". FOR THE MOST PART, RAIN WILL NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THIS STORM, BUT IT COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR A TIME TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND HIGHWAYS. THE STORM WILL CAUSE STRONG WINDS, PARTICULARLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE 60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND DOWN TO JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELMARVA BEACHES. 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR FARTHER INLAND, PERHAPS AS FAR AS 75-100 MILES.

ON THE ISSUE OF TIDES, A STORM OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATER LEVELS AT LEAST 2 OR 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND MAYBE AS BAD AS 4-5 FEET. THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. AGAIN, IF THIS WERE A "NORMAL" SITUATION ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND NOT A LITTLE MORE THAN A WEEK AFTER SUPERSTORM SANDY HIT, THEN WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT A MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SITUATION. NOW, WITH A LOT OF THE PROTECTION GONE FROM THE BEACH COMMUNITIES, THINGS WILL DEFINITELY BE WORSE.

FINALLY, THIS NOR'EASTER, JUST LIKE SANDY, WILL PRODUCE SNOW ON ITS COLD SIDE. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE ARE LOOKING AT A FEW 6" AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM WESTERN MD THROUGH EASTERN PA AND INTO NY STATE. THIS DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE A CLASSIC, EARLY SEASON ELEVATION-DEPENDENT STORM, WITH NOTICEABLE SNOWFALL DIFFERENCES FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER SPOTS. ONE THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT FOR A TIME, THIS STORM WILL BE IN THE DEEPENING PHASE, AND SOME WEIRD THINGS CAN HAPPEN DURING THAT EPISODE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY HINTING THAT THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL COME WAY DOWN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, AND THEN GO BACK UP. THAT MAY BE INDICATING THAT SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN PRETTY FAR SOUTH AND EAST...EVEN IF IT IS JUST BRIEFLY.

THE WORST OF THE STORM HERE SEEMS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAYBE 3 P.M. TO 3 A.M. IT SEEMS LIKE THIS NOR'EASTER RAMPS UP FAIRLY QUICKLY TO ITS PEAK STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND THEN OCCLUDES AND STARTS TO WEAKEN BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL HAVE RESIDUAL EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM ON THURSDAY FOR SURE. HOWEVER, BETTER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK, AND A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS ON THE WAY. THAT IS GREAT NEWS FOR THE CONTINUED CLEANUP OPERATION ON THE EAST COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME, OUR WEATHER WILL BE QUIET OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A MOSTLY CLEAR, COLD NIGHT IS COMING UP TONIGHT...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...AS A GOOD SIZED HIGH SYSTEM BUILDS INTO PA. THAT HIGH WILL BRING US A PRETTY DAY TOMORROW FOR ELECTION DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

11/02/2012

WINDY WEEKEND. NO'REASTER NEARBY NEXT WEEK?

THE WEATHER PATTERN HERE THROUGH NEXT WEEK DEFINITELY LOOKS CHILLY WITH A CONTINUATION OF WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. IT'S ACTUALLY BEEN QUITE A LONG TIME SINCE WE HAVE HAD AN EXTENDED STRETCH LIKE THIS OF PERSISTENTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. THE REASON FOR THE STUBBORN CHILL IS VERY SIMPLE. THE NAO IS STRONGLY NEGATIVE NOW, AND IS FORECAST TO STAY NEGATIVE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE GENERAL TROF POSITION WILL WANT TO STAY IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY FOR AWHILE LONGER. SO, DON'T EXPECT ANY MILD OR WARM WEATHER ANYTIME SOON.

IN THE LONGER RANGE, PERHAPS BEGINNING NEXT WEEKEND, THE PATTERN WILL TRY TO RELAX SOMEWHAT AND TEMPS WILL TREND BACK TO AT LEAST MORE NORMAL LEVELS, AND PROBABLY EVENTUALLY TO ABOVE NORMAL. THAT WILL CERTAINLY BE A VERY WELCOME CHANGE IF AND WHEN IT COMES TO PASS. IN THE MEANTIME, WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH READINGS MORE TYPICAL OF LATE NOVEMBER THAN THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.

AS WE SUSPECTED, IT DID BECOME VERY UNSTABLE TODAY WITH LOW HEIGHTS AND CHILLY AIR ALOFT AS A STRONG SHORT WAVE PUSHED EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION. THE LATEST RADAR STILL INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS OUT THERE, AND WE WILL HAVE TO NOWCAST THIS SITUATION AS WE HEAD INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT WE WILL HAVE TO COVER FOR A BRIEF SHOWER HERE AND THERE THIS EVENING. LATER ON TONIGHT, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND A GOOD DOWNSLOPING BREEZE BLOWS ALL NIGHT. THAT WILL LEAVE US WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON AVERAGE.

OUR WINDIEST TIME IS COMING UP TOMORROW WITH A FAIRLY WELL ALIGNED FLOW, A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT, ENERGETIC WINDS NOT TOO FAR OFF THE DECK, AND A CONTINUED UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THAT WILL LEAD TO SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 12-25 MPH TOMORROW, WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 OR EVEN 35 MPH ON OCCASION. WINDS OF THAT MAGNITUDE COULD CERTAINLY HAMPER SOME OF THE CLEANUP OPERATIONS OCCURRING IN THE WAKE OF SANDY. OVERALL, WE EXPECT THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW TO KEEP THINGS DRY HERE. HOWEVER, AS WE TALKED ABOUT YESTERDAY, SOME STRATOCU WILL SPILL OVER FROM THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES.

THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL STILL BE BRISK, BUT WIND SPEEDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIGHTER. GUSTS ON SUNDAY MAY BE MORE ON THE ORDER OF 25 MPH, AND SKIES WILL TEND TO BE A TAD SUNNIER.

THE LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT WERE CONCERNED ABOUT A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NOW SEEMS TO WANT TO STAY SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH. THAT FEATURE WILL USHER IN A FRESH BATCH OF CHILLY AIR FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, REINFORCING THE BELOW NORMAL TEMP PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL BE DRY HERE FOR MONDAY AND ALSO ELECTION DAY ON TUESDAY.

BEYOND TUESDAY, THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH ANOTHER COASTAL STORM SOMETIME WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT... MAYBE EVEN INTO THURSDAY. WHILE THAT STORM WILL BE NOTHING LIKE WHAT WE JUST WENT THROUGH, IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT FOR PARTS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD, STRONG, GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COAST, AND EVEN SOME WET SNOW ON ITS WESTERN FLANK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH GROUND. SINCE A LOT OF THE PROTECTION HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE BEACH SITES FROM SANDY, THIS STORM MAY CAUSE MORE COASTAL FLOODING PROBLEMS THAN WOULD NORMALLY BE THE CASE WITH A STORM OF THAT MAGNITUDE. OBVIOUSLY, THIS NEXT STORM WILL CONSUME A LOT OF OUR ATTENTION AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.