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11/05/2012

ELECTION DAY IS CALM BEFORE NOR'EASTER

ALTHOUGH THIS UPCOMING NOR'EASTER DURING THE MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL NOT HAVE A NAME, WE CAN DEFINITELY REFER TO IT IN DIFFERENT WAYS…"KICKING YOU WHEN YOU'RE DONE STORM", "POURING SALT IN YOUR WOUNDS STORM", OR PERHAPS THE "ADDING INSULT TO INJURY STORM". THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT, TAKEN ALL BY ITSELF, THIS UPCOMING STORM WOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SCALE AS FAR AS NOR'EASTERS ARE CONCERNED.

THE STORM IS GOING TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN IN SOME AREAS, ON THE ORDER OF 1-2". FOR THE MOST PART, RAIN WILL NOT BE A MAJOR PROBLEM WITH THIS STORM, BUT IT COULD BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR A TIME TO CAUSE MINOR FLOODING...POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND HIGHWAYS. THE STORM WILL CAUSE STRONG WINDS, PARTICULARLY RIGHT ALONG THE COAST. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE 60-70 MPH WIND GUSTS FROM SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN LONG ISLAND DOWN TO JERSEY SHORE AND THE DELMARVA BEACHES. 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR FARTHER INLAND, PERHAPS AS FAR AS 75-100 MILES.

ON THE ISSUE OF TIDES, A STORM OF THIS MAGNITUDE IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WATER LEVELS AT LEAST 2 OR 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, AND MAYBE AS BAD AS 4-5 FEET. THAT WOULD PROBABLY BE ABOUT THE WORST CASE SCENARIO. AGAIN, IF THIS WERE A "NORMAL" SITUATION ALONG THE EAST COAST, AND NOT A LITTLE MORE THAN A WEEK AFTER SUPERSTORM SANDY HIT, THEN WE WOULD BE LOOKING AT A MINOR TO MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING SITUATION. NOW, WITH A LOT OF THE PROTECTION GONE FROM THE BEACH COMMUNITIES, THINGS WILL DEFINITELY BE WORSE.

FINALLY, THIS NOR'EASTER, JUST LIKE SANDY, WILL PRODUCE SNOW ON ITS COLD SIDE. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE ARE LOOKING AT A FEW 6" AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM WESTERN MD THROUGH EASTERN PA AND INTO NY STATE. THIS DEFINITELY LOOKS TO BE A CLASSIC, EARLY SEASON ELEVATION-DEPENDENT STORM, WITH NOTICEABLE SNOWFALL DIFFERENCES FROM THE MOUNTAINS TO THE LOWER SPOTS. ONE THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT FOR A TIME, THIS STORM WILL BE IN THE DEEPENING PHASE, AND SOME WEIRD THINGS CAN HAPPEN DURING THAT EPISODE. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE ACTUALLY HINTING THAT THE FREEZING LEVEL WILL COME WAY DOWN FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, AND THEN GO BACK UP. THAT MAY BE INDICATING THAT SOME WET SNOW FLAKES MAY BE SEEN PRETTY FAR SOUTH AND EAST...EVEN IF IT IS JUST BRIEFLY.

THE WORST OF THE STORM HERE SEEMS TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAYBE 3 P.M. TO 3 A.M. IT SEEMS LIKE THIS NOR'EASTER RAMPS UP FAIRLY QUICKLY TO ITS PEAK STRENGTH ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING, AND THEN OCCLUDES AND STARTS TO WEAKEN BY THURSDAY MORNING. WE WILL HAVE RESIDUAL EFFECTS FROM THIS STORM ON THURSDAY FOR SURE. HOWEVER, BETTER WEATHER IS ON THE WAY TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK, AND A VERY NICE WEEKEND IS ON THE WAY. THAT IS GREAT NEWS FOR THE CONTINUED CLEANUP OPERATION ON THE EAST COAST.

IN THE MEANTIME, OUR WEATHER WILL BE QUIET OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. A MOSTLY CLEAR, COLD NIGHT IS COMING UP TONIGHT...THE COLDEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR...AS A GOOD SIZED HIGH SYSTEM BUILDS INTO PA. THAT HIGH WILL BRING US A PRETTY DAY TOMORROW FOR ELECTION DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT WINDS. HOWEVER, TEMPS WILL BE ON THE CHILLY SIDE.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on November 5, 2012 | Permalink

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