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11/13/2012

CHILL IS HERE TO STAY. COASTAL CONCERN NEXT WEEK.

MUCH CHILLIER AIR HAS INVADED OUR AREA TODAY BEHIND THE SHARP COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING SLOWLY OFF THE EAST COAST. AS WE SUSPECTED, IN AREAS THAT STAYED MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY, TEMPS REALLY DIDN'T MOVE MUCH AT ALL AFTER THE INITIAL PLUNGE.

THE RAIN PATTERN WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS PRETTY MUCH ALONG THE LINES THAT WE DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. THE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST YOU GO, MORE RAIN FELL. MOUNT POCONO PICKED UP A LITTLE OVER AN INCH OF RAIN, WHILE ABE GOT 0.73" AND LANCASTER PICKED UP 0.78". THERE WAS EVEN 1.06" AT DULLES AIRPORT. HOWEVER, AS YOU HEADED FARTHER SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND DOWN TO THE COAST, RAINFALL TOTALS WERE GENERALLY LIGHTER FROM THIS SYSTEM. BWI PICKED UP 0.44", PHL GOT 0.14", ACY HAD 0.16", AND NYC RECEIVED A PIDDLY 0.09". RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND NEW ENGLAND WERE ALSO ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

DRIER AIR IS SLOWLY BUT SURELY WORKING ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST, AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WITH A TRAILING VORT MAX COMING ALONG IN THE FLOW, THE RAIN WILL BE SLUGGISH TO LEAVE SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND, AND JUST WEST OF THERE, THE CLOUDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT SLOW TO CLEAR OUT.

TOMORROW'S WEATHER LOOKS VERY NICE AND PRETTY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE, THANKS TO GOOD SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE. A GOOD SIZED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED OVER ILLINOIS WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS, REACHING LAKE ONTARIO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY TOMORROW EVENING. THAT HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP SHOP OVER EASTERN CANADA FOR A FEW DAYS, AND CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE U.S. THE RESULT WILL BE A STRETCH OF DRY, QUIET, AND TRANQUIL WEATHER HERE WITH AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE EACH DAY. WITH A WEATHER MAP SETUP LIKE THAT, OUR WIND FLOW WILL STAY NORTHEASTERLY FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, KEEPING TEMPS HERE ON THE CHILLY SIDE OF NORMAL.

LATER THIS WEEK, WE WILL PROBABLY NOTICE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS AS A FEATURE HEADS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER, THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE ANY TIME PERIOD THROUGH SATURDAY THAT WILL BE ANY WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY . WITH NO REAL CHANGE IN AIR MASS, WE DO EXPECT A SLIGHT UPTICK IN TEMPS HERE AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY....BUT THE EMPHASIS WILL BE ON SLIGHT.

IN THE LONGER RANGE FROM SUNDAY INTO THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THERE SEEMS TO BE AN INCREASING CHANCE THAT WE WILL HAVE TO DEAL WITH SOME SORT OF LOW PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST OR MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THAT OVERALL SCENARIO SEEMS VERY REASONABLE, AS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL TROF TRIES TO CLOSE OFF OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THAT, IN TURN, WILL INTERACT WITH A NATURAL BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE, AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THAT WAVE AND THE BIG HIGH UP IN EASTERN CANADA WILL LIKELY TIGHTEN UP SOMEWHAT. WHAT THAT ALL BOILS DOWN TO FOR THE EASTERN SEABOARD IS A SPELL OF CLOUDY, POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE OF SOME RAIN. IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE AT LEAST BREEZY IF NOT DOWNRIGHT WINDY ALONG THE COAST, GIVEN THAT PRESSURE GRADIENT. WHETHER THAT STORM ENDS UP BEING A MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER HERE, OR JUST A "THORN IN OUR SIDE", REMAINS TO BE SEEN.

SINCE THE STORM IS LIKELY TO BE A LONG DURATION EVENT, IT CERTAINLY HAS THE POTENTIAL TO HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACT ON HOLIDAY TRAVEL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. MORE DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN LATER DISCUSSIONS.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on November 13, 2012 | Permalink

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