« September 2012 | Main | November 2012 »

October 2012

10/26/2012

ALL SANDY, ALL THE TIME

WE HAVE TO BE A LITTLE MORE DEFINITIVE WITH OUR FORECAST AND PROJECTIONS...BUT, AT THE SAME TIME WE STILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME OPTIONS OPEN. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE EURO IS NOW IN. IT APPEARS THAT THE MODEL NOW HAS A SOLUTION FARTHER OFFSHORE INITIALLY, BUT THEN STILL DOES FORECAST A VERY SHARP HOOK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE JERSEY SHORE.

WITH THAT PATH FARTHER OUT TO SEA INITIALLY, THE TIMING WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE OLDER RUNS OF THE EURO HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT AND CHESAPEAKE BAY STILL SEEMS MOST LIKELY, WITH A TARGET SOMEWHERE ON THE JERSEY SHORE. BEFORE THE 12Z RUN OF THE EURO CAME IN, WE WERE REALLY LEANING MORE TOWARD CAPE MAY AND THE MOUTH OF THE DELAWARE BAY. NOW ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING MORE TOWARD ATLANTIC CITY. OF COURSE, THE EXACT TRACK IS VERY CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE ABSOLUTE WORST AREA FOR COASTAL FLOODING, THE OVERALL FLAVOR OF WHAT WE HAVE BEEN COVERING HAS NOT CHANGED.

AS SANDY HOOKS TO THE LEFT TOWARD THE COAST, IT WILL PILE A LOT OF WATER ONTO THE COASTLINE. AT AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH, WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A RECORD OR NEAR RECORD STORM SURGE. IN THAT SITUATION, THE COASTAL FLOODING IS VERY SERIOUS AND PERHAPS CATASTROPHIC, ESPECIALLY IF THE WORST CONDITIONS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE. RIGHT NOW, WE STILL THINK THAT TIDES COULD RUN AS HIGH AS 6-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO. WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE A MAJOR FACTOR WITH THIS STORM. WE FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE AREA WITH GUSTS PAST 60 MPH, EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE CORRIDOR FROM BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON NORTHEASTWARD TO THE POCONOS AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS TO OR PAST HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FROM LONG ISLAND DOWN TO DE.

RAINFALL IS VERY TRICKY, BUT IN GENERAL, THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM SANDY WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM TRACK, AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPSLOPING FLOW INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AT THIS STAGE, WE HAVE A 4" TOTAL RAINFALL LINE THAT RUNS BASICALLY RIGHT THROUGH NYC, WITH 2'4" TO THE EAST OF THERE, AND A LARGE AREA OF 4-8" TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, WITH LOCALLY 10"+. OBVIOUSLY, THE MORE RAIN THAT FALLS IN A SHORTER TIME PERIOD, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO SOFTEN THE GROUND, MAKING IT MORE LIKELY FOR TREES TO BLOW OVER FROM THE STRONG WINDS. SPEAKING OF TREES, THE FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY BE ACCENTUATED BY STORM DRAINS GETTING CLOGGED BY TONS OF LEAVES THAT HAVE FALLEN OR WILL FALL OFF THE TREES.

SOME OTHER POINTS TO BE MADE ON THIS STORM...

- THE FULL MOON IS 3:49 PM ON MONDAY, AND SO THE TIDES WILL ALREADY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

- THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BE IN THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS!

- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE ELECTIONS COULD BE IMPACTED, DUE TO PEOPLE STILL BEING WITHOUT POWER.

- POWER OUTAGES WILL PROBABLY LAST AT LEAST DAYS, AND COULD LAST FOR WEEKS!

- THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INSISTENT ALL ALONG THAT SANDY WILL MAINTAIN A WARM CORE THROUGH LANDFALL,

AND FOR MAYBE 12 HOURS OR MORE AS IT IS TRACKING INLAND.

- AS FOR SNOW, WE STILL FEEL THAT THE MOUNTAINS OF WV WILL BE HARDEST HIT, PARTICULARLY ABOVE 3,000 FEET. 1-3

FEET OR MORE OF SNOW COULD FALL IN THAT REGION.

- THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT REALLY SUMS UP OUR CONCERNS: "SANDY WILL AFFECT MILLIONS AND COST BILLIONS!"

IN THE SHORT TERM, WE ARE KEEPING THE FORECAST RATHER CLOUDY SOUNDING, GIVEN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. OUR WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE SECOND  HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT THAT WILL BE NOTHING COMPARED TO WHAT IT WILL BE LIKE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

10/23/2012

LIMITED SUN & LOTS ON SANDY

 

SPECULATION IS UNDERWAY ON WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY HAPPEN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK! RUN AFTER RUN, THE EURO, AND TO SOME DEGREE THE CANADIAN, ARE FORECASTING AN EXTREME EVENT! IN FACT, YOU CAN TAKE IT EVEN FURTHER AND SAY THAT THE EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE DOWNRIGHT CATASTROPHIC IN SOME LOCATIONS, FROM THE 3+ FEET OF SNOW IT IS PREDICTING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PA TO THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND A MASSIVE STORM SURGE IT FORECASTS FOR PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. OF COURSE, RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE STORM COULD BE EXCESSIVE, GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING.

ARGUING AGAINST A BIG EAST COAST STORM IS CLIMATOLOGY. GENERALLY, TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF "SANDY" AND TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK USUALLY STAY WELL OFFSHORE IN LATEOCTOBER. THAT MAY VERY WELL BE THE CASE, ESPECIALLY IF SANDY IS ABLE TO MOVE ALONG AT A FASTER PACE THAN IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE STRENGTH OF SANDY, WE DO EXPECT IT TO RAMP UP TO A CAT 1 HURRICANE BEFORE IT CROSSES THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA. ARGUING FOR THIS INCREDIBLE EVENT IS THE FACT THAT THE NAO IS PROGGED TO TANK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT, THE NAO IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE LOWEST LEVELS THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME. THAT WOULD LEAD TO STRONG BLOCKING AND WOULD ALMOST HAVE TO FORCE THE STORM TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF DUE NORTH TOWARD OR INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT IS STILL ONLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WE HAVE AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO FINE TUNE OUR THINKING ON THE FUTURE PATH OF SANDY AND ANY IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE JUST HAVE TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS OPEN AND DISCUSS THE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, WE SEE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CT COAST. THERE IS ACTUALLY A WEAK WAVE LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF DETROIT. NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...ACTUALLY NORTH OF A CERTAIN POINT, IT WILL PROBABLY JUST RAIN FOR AWHILE TONIGHT. THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO BE DRY TONIGHT. THAT WILL PROBABLY BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80, ALTHOUGH A SHOWER CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT FROM THERE TO ABOUT THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SOUTH OF THERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE A NO-BRAINER TONIGHT.

BY TOMORROW MORNING, WE EXPECT THE WEAK WAVE TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ. FROM THERE, IT WILL HEAD EASTWARD OFF THE JERSEY SHORE TOMORROW, AND THE FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD IN BACK DOOR FASHION AS A BIG HIGH BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THAT HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE MAINE COAST BY LATE THURSDAY, AND THEN SETTING UP SHOP EAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. WE EXPECT THE HIGH TO NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THAT LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT. THAT WILL JUST LEAVE US WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW OVER A LARGE AREA. IF THAT SETUP WERE BACK A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO, THEN IT WOULD BE A SIMPLE CASE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG GIVING WAY TO SUN. THAT PROBABLY HAPPENS THIS TIME AS WELL, BUT WE DO HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THE WEAKER SUN NOW IN LATE OCTOBER. DUE TO THE OCEAN COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW LATER THIS WEEK, WE DO HAVE TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE MAX TEMPS...UNLIKE WHAT WILL BE HAPPENING OUT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED!

BEFORE WE GET THERE, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A HUGE RANGE IN WEATHER AND TEMPS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW...THE NYC AREA WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH PAST 60 WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW, WHILE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON REACH OR SURPASS THE 80 DEGREE MARK TOMORROW WITH SOME SUN. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, WE ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER DECENT DAY WEATHER WISE HERE ON SATURDAY, BUT THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF AFTER THAT. STAY TUNED!!!

LIMITED SUN & LOTS ON SANDY

SPECULATION IS UNDERWAY ON WHAT COULD POTENTIALLY HAPPEN ALONG THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK! RUN AFTER RUN, THE EURO, AND TO SOME DEGREE THE CANADIAN, ARE FORECASTING AN EXTREME EVENT! IN FACT, YOU CAN TAKE IT EVEN FURTHER AND SAY THAT THE EURO SOLUTION WOULD BE DOWNRIGHT CATASTROPHIC IN SOME LOCATIONS, FROM THE 3+ FEET OF SNOW IT IS PREDICTING IN THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL PA TO THE HURRICANE FORCE WIND GUSTS AND A MASSIVE STORM SURGE IT FORECASTS FOR PARTS OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. OF COURSE, RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THE STORM COULD BE EXCESSIVE, GIVEN THE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL PATTERN DEVELOPING.

ARGUING AGAINST A BIG EAST COAST STORM IS CLIMATOLOGY. GENERALLY, TROPICAL STORMS OR HURRICANES FORMING IN THE VICINITY OF "SANDY" AND TAKING A SIMILAR TRACK USUALLY STAY WELL OFFSHORE IN LATEOCTOBER. THAT MAY VERY WELL BE THE CASE, ESPECIALLY IF SANDY IS ABLE TO MOVE ALONG AT A FASTER PACE THAN IS PREDICTED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

AS FOR THE STRENGTH OF SANDY, WE DO EXPECT IT TO RAMP UP TO A CAT 1 HURRICANE BEFORE IT CROSSES THE ISLAND OF JAMAICA. ARGUING FOR THIS INCREDIBLE EVENT IS THE FACT THAT THE NAO IS PROGGED TO TANK OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IN FACT, THE NAO IS FORECAST TO DROP TO THE LOWEST LEVELS THAT WE HAVE SEEN IN A VERY LONG TIME. THAT WOULD LEAD TO STRONG BLOCKING AND WOULD ALMOST HAVE TO FORCE THE STORM TO TAKE A TRACK WEST OF DUE NORTH TOWARD OR INTO THE NORTHEASTERN STATES.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT IS STILL ONLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AND WE HAVE AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS TO FINE TUNE OUR THINKING ON THE FUTURE PATH OF SANDY AND ANY IMPACTS IT WILL HAVE ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE JUST HAVE TO KEEP ALL OPTIONS OPEN AND DISCUSS THE VARIOUS POSSIBILITIES.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, WE SEE A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE CT COAST. THERE IS ACTUALLY A WEAK WAVE LOCATED ALONG THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY NOT TOO FAR NORTH OF DETROIT. NEAR AND NORTH OF THIS FRONT, THERE WILL BE SHOWERS AROUND TONIGHT...ACTUALLY NORTH OF A CERTAIN POINT, IT WILL PROBABLY JUST RAIN FOR AWHILE TONIGHT. THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS TO BE DRY TONIGHT. THAT WILL PROBABLY BE MAINLY SOUTH OF I-80, ALTHOUGH A SHOWER CAN'T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT FROM THERE TO ABOUT THE MASON-DIXON LINE. SOUTH OF THERE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE A NO-BRAINER TONIGHT.

BY TOMORROW MORNING, WE EXPECT THE WEAK WAVE TO BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER CENTRAL NJ. FROM THERE, IT WILL HEAD EASTWARD OFF THE JERSEY SHORE TOMORROW, AND THE FRONT WILL SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD IN BACK DOOR FASHION AS A BIG HIGH BUILDS INTO EASTERN CANADA. THAT HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE MAINE COAST BY LATE THURSDAY, AND THEN SETTING UP SHOP EAST OF CAPE COD ON FRIDAY. WE EXPECT THE HIGH TO NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THAT LATE WEEK PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME, HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DRY OUT. THAT WILL JUST LEAVE US WITH A LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW OVER A LARGE AREA. IF THAT SETUP WERE BACK A COUPLE OF MONTHS AGO, THEN IT WOULD BE A SIMPLE CASE OF MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG GIVING WAY TO SUN. THAT PROBABLY HAPPENS THIS TIME AS WELL, BUT WE DO HAVE TO KEEP IN MIND THE WEAKER SUN NOW IN LATE OCTOBER. DUE TO THE OCEAN COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW LATER THIS WEEK, WE DO HAVE TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO GO OVERBOARD ON THE MAX TEMPS...UNLIKE WHAT WILL BE HAPPENING OUT WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHERE RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED!

BEFORE WE GET THERE, WE WILL LIKELY SEE A HUGE RANGE IN WEATHER AND TEMPS FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST TOMORROW...THE NYC AREA WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH PAST 60 WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW, WHILE BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON REACH OR SURPASS THE 80 DEGREE MARK TOMORROW WITH SOME SUN. LOOKING AHEAD TO THE WEEKEND, WE ARE FORECASTING ANOTHER DECENT DAY WEATHER WISE HERE ON SATURDAY, BUT THEN ALL BETS ARE OFF AFTER THAT. STAY TUNED!!!

10/10/2012

AUTUMN WIND KICKING IN

DESPITE THE JAM-UP OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RECENTLY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD, AND NOW STILL AFFECTING NEW ENGLAND, THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN HEADING THROUGH THE WEEKEND SEEMS VERY TYPICAL OF FALL. SYSTEMS ARE MOVING RIGHT ALONG IN THE FLOW. BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY, WE WILL DEAL WITH TWO COLD FRONTS, AND ONE WARM FRONT, PLUS TWO SEPARATE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS.

THE DEEPER EASTERLY FLOW MOISTURE WITH POCKETS OF RAIN IS NOW SHIFTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS ARE SHOWING UP TO OUR WEST, ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSING BY TO OUR NORTH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS NORTHERNMOST PA, UPSTATE NY, AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, WE FEEL THAT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY, BUT WE CAN'Y RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER THIS EVENING.

BY LATER TONIGHT, MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BE OVERSPREADING THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT, AND SKIES WILL TURN OUT CLEAR. THE AIR MASS ALSO LOOKS SOMEWHAT COOLER. HIGH PRESSURE NOW OUT IN MISSOURI WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, REACHING WV BY TOMORROW MORNING, AND THE VA COAST BY TOMORROW EVENING. THAT WILL TRANSLATE INTO A VERY NICE AUTUMN DAY HERE TOMORROW WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, A GUSTY WESTERLY BREEZE, AND TEMPS ON THE COOL SIDE OF NORMAL.

AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW NIGHT, WE'LL GET INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OF SLIGHTLY MILDER AIR...BRIEFLY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE RIGHT ALONG, AND WILL PASS BY TROUGH HERE ON FRIDAY. WE EXPECT SOME CLOUDS WITH THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BUT LITTLE MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER. THE AIR WILL BE FAIRLY DRY HERE ON FRIDAY, AND ONCE AGAIN, THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA WILL RUN BY TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS ON FRIDAY ARE VERY TRICKY. WITH ENOUGH SUN, A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW, AND TEMPS NOT TOO COOL ALOFT YET, READINGS COULD RISE RAPIDLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ONCE THE FROPA OCCURS, THEN PRETTY DECENT COLD ADVECTION WILL KICK IN. THAT WILL LIKELY PUT THE BRAKES ON THE TEMP RISE. HIGHS AROUND 60 LOOK REASONABLE.

THAT AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND FRIDAY'S FRONT LOOKS QUITE CHILLY. WE'LL PROBABLY SEE THE MOST  WIDESPREAD OCCURRENCE OF FROST SO FAR THIS SEASON IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SATURDAY LOOKS ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS, ALL BE IT ON THE COOL SIDE, GIVEN THE LOW LAUNCHING PAD AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT WILL BE PRESENT THAT DAY. WARMER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO MOVE IN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE FEEL THAT THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS HAS BEEN FOR A NICE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS ON SUNDAY.