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10/26/2012

ALL SANDY, ALL THE TIME

WE HAVE TO BE A LITTLE MORE DEFINITIVE WITH OUR FORECAST AND PROJECTIONS...BUT, AT THE SAME TIME WE STILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME OPTIONS OPEN. THE LATEST GUIDANCE FROM THE EURO IS NOW IN. IT APPEARS THAT THE MODEL NOW HAS A SOLUTION FARTHER OFFSHORE INITIALLY, BUT THEN STILL DOES FORECAST A VERY SHARP HOOK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE JERSEY SHORE.

WITH THAT PATH FARTHER OUT TO SEA INITIALLY, THE TIMING WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE OLDER RUNS OF THE EURO HAVE BEEN SUGGESTING. A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE BETWEEN MONTAUK POINT AND CHESAPEAKE BAY STILL SEEMS MOST LIKELY, WITH A TARGET SOMEWHERE ON THE JERSEY SHORE. BEFORE THE 12Z RUN OF THE EURO CAME IN, WE WERE REALLY LEANING MORE TOWARD CAPE MAY AND THE MOUTH OF THE DELAWARE BAY. NOW ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING MORE TOWARD ATLANTIC CITY. OF COURSE, THE EXACT TRACK IS VERY CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE ABSOLUTE WORST AREA FOR COASTAL FLOODING, THE OVERALL FLAVOR OF WHAT WE HAVE BEEN COVERING HAS NOT CHANGED.

AS SANDY HOOKS TO THE LEFT TOWARD THE COAST, IT WILL PILE A LOT OF WATER ONTO THE COASTLINE. AT AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH, WE MAY BE DEALING WITH A RECORD OR NEAR RECORD STORM SURGE. IN THAT SITUATION, THE COASTAL FLOODING IS VERY SERIOUS AND PERHAPS CATASTROPHIC, ESPECIALLY IF THE WORST CONDITIONS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE. RIGHT NOW, WE STILL THINK THAT TIDES COULD RUN AS HIGH AS 6-10 FEET ABOVE NORMAL, IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO. WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE A MAJOR FACTOR WITH THIS STORM. WE FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE A LARGE AREA WITH GUSTS PAST 60 MPH, EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE CORRIDOR FROM BALTIMORE AND WASHINGTON NORTHEASTWARD TO THE POCONOS AND WESTERN CATSKILLS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS TO OR PAST HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE RIGHT ALONG THE COAST FROM LONG ISLAND DOWN TO DE.

RAINFALL IS VERY TRICKY, BUT IN GENERAL, THE HEAVIEST RAIN FROM SANDY WILL OCCUR TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE STORM TRACK, AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, AND IS ALSO AIDED BY AN UPSLOPING FLOW INTO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. AT THIS STAGE, WE HAVE A 4" TOTAL RAINFALL LINE THAT RUNS BASICALLY RIGHT THROUGH NYC, WITH 2'4" TO THE EAST OF THERE, AND A LARGE AREA OF 4-8" TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST, WITH LOCALLY 10"+. OBVIOUSLY, THE MORE RAIN THAT FALLS IN A SHORTER TIME PERIOD, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS FOR FLASH FLOODING TO OCCUR. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO SOFTEN THE GROUND, MAKING IT MORE LIKELY FOR TREES TO BLOW OVER FROM THE STRONG WINDS. SPEAKING OF TREES, THE FLOODING PROBLEMS WILL LIKELY BE ACCENTUATED BY STORM DRAINS GETTING CLOGGED BY TONS OF LEAVES THAT HAVE FALLEN OR WILL FALL OFF THE TREES.

SOME OTHER POINTS TO BE MADE ON THIS STORM...

- THE FULL MOON IS 3:49 PM ON MONDAY, AND SO THE TIDES WILL ALREADY BE RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL ANYWAY.

- THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF THIS STORM WILL LIKELY BE IN THE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS!

- THERE IS THE POTENTIAL THAT THE ELECTIONS COULD BE IMPACTED, DUE TO PEOPLE STILL BEING WITHOUT POWER.

- POWER OUTAGES WILL PROBABLY LAST AT LEAST DAYS, AND COULD LAST FOR WEEKS!

- THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY INSISTENT ALL ALONG THAT SANDY WILL MAINTAIN A WARM CORE THROUGH LANDFALL,

AND FOR MAYBE 12 HOURS OR MORE AS IT IS TRACKING INLAND.

- AS FOR SNOW, WE STILL FEEL THAT THE MOUNTAINS OF WV WILL BE HARDEST HIT, PARTICULARLY ABOVE 3,000 FEET. 1-3

FEET OR MORE OF SNOW COULD FALL IN THAT REGION.

- THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT REALLY SUMS UP OUR CONCERNS: "SANDY WILL AFFECT MILLIONS AND COST BILLIONS!"

IN THE SHORT TERM, WE ARE KEEPING THE FORECAST RATHER CLOUDY SOUNDING, GIVEN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. OUR WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE SECOND  HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT THAT WILL BE NOTHING COMPARED TO WHAT IT WILL BE LIKE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on October 26, 2012 | Permalink

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