Blog or Bust

CHALLENGING FALL FORECAST

WELCOME TO THE FIRST WEEK OF FALL. ASWE OFTEN SAY AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, AND AGAIN IN THE SPRING, IS THAT YOU REALLY HAVE TO KEEP UP WITH THE NORMAL TEMPS, AS THEY ARE CHANGING AT A RAPID PACE. IN FACT, FROM NOW THROUGH EARLY DECEMBER, THE NORMAL HIGH AND LOW TEMP DROP A DEGREE ABOUT EVERY THREE DAYS. THAT'S WHY WE HAVE TO CONSTANTLY KEEP CHECKING THEM, SINCE IT IS SO EASY TO GET OUT OF TOUCH WITH REALITY.

HERE IS A QUICK REVIEW OF WHERE WE ARE NOW, AND WHERE WE ARE GOING WITH THE NORMAL TEMPS...TODAY: 73/58, OCTOBER 24TH: 61/48, NOVEMBER 24TH: 51/39, DECEMBER 24TH: 41/30. OF COURSE, ALONG WITH THE RAPID DECREASE IN TEMPS AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING A QUICK DECLINE IN DAYLIGHT...ON THE ORDER OF 2.5 MINUTES OR MORE PER DAY! SINCE THE SUN'S INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IN THE DAYS AND WEEKS AHEAD, WE REALLY HAVE TO BE COGNIZANT OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHEN IT IS CLOUDY OR MOSTLY CLOUDY, AND TEMPS UNDER-ACHIEVE...SOMETIMES BY A BUNCH!

IN ANY CASE, MOVING FORWARD, WE WILL HAVE A MOSTLY CLEAR, COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A BIG RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION, THANKS TO HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS NOW CENTERED OVER WV. THAT HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE EAST COAST TOMORROW, CAUSING OUR WIND FLOW TO TURN SOUTHWESTERLY. THAT COMBINED WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN AND NICE WARMING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A WARMER AFTERNOON. OVERALL, TOMORROW WILL BE A PLEASANT DAY, AND LIKELY OUR BEST DAY WEATHER WISE OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS OR MORE.

THE MID-WEEK PERIOD CERTAINLY LOOKS MILD/WARM. HOWEVER, MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A LIMITING EFFECT ON OUR TEMPS HERE ON WEDNESDAY. WE ARE LEANING OUR FORECAST MORE TOWARD CLOUDS THAN SUN THAT DAY, AND WE ARE ALSO PREDICTING A COUPLE OF SHOWERS. WHILE IT MAY THUNDER, WE ARE NOT TOO IMPRESSED WITH A LOT OF T-STORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING. THE PARAMETERS SEEM TO INDICATE THAT THE BEST SHOT AT T-STORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE FROM SOUTHERNMOST PA AND SOUTH JERSEY ON SOUTHWARD, WITH A DECREASING CHANCE OF A T-STORM THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO.

BY THURSDAY THE FRONT WILL BE PRESSING SOUTHWARD, BUT COULD SLOW DOWN SOME OR EVEN STALL OUT FOR AWHILE UNTIL A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH IN THE FLOW. FOR THAT REASON, WE MAY NEED SOME SORT OF TRANSITION TYPE OF WORDING THAT DAY, EVENTUALLY GETTING INTO A DRIER SCENARIO.

HOW LONG OUR DRY AND QUIET SPELL LASTS IS DEFINITELY A BIG QUESTION MARK FOR LATE IN THE WEEK. THE LATEST RUN OF THE EURO IS SUGGESTING THAT MOISTURE WILL RETURN FAIRLY QUICKLY ON FRIDAY, AND IT COULD STAY GLOOMY OUT INTO AT LEAST PART OF SATURDAY. OUR WETTEST PERIOD MAY ACTUALLY END UP BEING FRIDAY NIGHT, AND THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT THEN. OF COURSE, THE FASTER MOISTURE MOVES BACK IN ON FRIDAY, THE COOLER IT WILL BE THAT DAY.

WITH A DEEP TROF OR EVEN A CLOSED LOW FORMING THIS WEEKEND, WE MAY STAY IN A VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE  WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. DETAILS WILL OBVIOUSLY FOLLOW IN LATER DISCUSSIONS.

SUMMER SUN PLAYING PEEKABOO

THE OVERALL THEME OF THE FORECAST FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS BASICALLY ON TARGET FROM WHAT WE HAD DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME SHORT TERM TWEAKS, MOSTLY IN THE AREA OF SKY COVER. THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR PITTSBURGH AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED UP OVER MAINE. THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THAT HIGH IS CAUSING A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THAT, IN TURN, HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF SOME CLOUDINESS TODAY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM YESTERDAY SLIGHTLY HINTED AT THAT POSSIBILITY, BUT THERE DID END UP BEING MORE CLOUDS AROUND TODAY THAN WHAT WE HAD BARGAINED FOR. GOING FORWARD, WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH THIS OCEAN BREEZE. THUS, THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD A CLOUDIER WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE STILL FEEL THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE AT ITS PEAK COVERAGE AND EXTENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THEN, THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW ARE LIKELY TO BE BRIGHTER.

WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS LOW TONIGHT AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, OUR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW COULD BE SOMEWHAT IN JEOPARDY, IF WE END UP BEING CLOUDIER LONGER THAN WE CURRENTLY THINK...OR, IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...ALL DAY LONG!  OTHERWISE, AS LONG AS WE GET ENOUGH SUN TOMORROW, OUR HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY IN GOOD SHAPE.

MEANWHILE, A LEAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. THAT ZONE OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY TONIGHT. THEN, THAT ZONE OF MOISTURE JUST WON'T BE ABLE TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER EASTWARD TOMORROW, DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS BEING SO FAR WEST, AND OUR UPPER FLOW BEING STRONGLY SOUTHWEST.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE BIGGEST CONCERN WE HAVE IS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE T-STORMS AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, ANYWHERE CENTRAL PA AND UPSTATE NY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SPC ALREADY HAS A SLIGHT RISK AREA OUT FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.  TEMPS WILL BE AT THEIR WARMEST LEVELS ON SATURDAY, SINCE WE WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL. WE STILL FEEL THAT READINGS WILL REACH OR TOP THE 80 DEGREE MARK OVER A LARGE AREA ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, AND AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE A SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE UP THAT DAY, GETTING TO OR PAST 60 IN MANY LOCATIONS, AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS GOOD. WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE NEARBY FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SO, STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND WITH THE FROPA, AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MOVES EASTWARD. RIGHT NOW, WE FEEL THAT ANY ACTIVITY FROM NYC EASTWARD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM AND PERHAPS 8 PM ON SATURDAY, WHILE IT DOES GET CRAZY LATE IN THE DAY INTO EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY, THE MAIN THING TO EMPHASIZE WEATHER WISE IS THE CHANGE TO COOLER, DRIER, AND

BREEZY CONDITIONS. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF NYC, AND THAT WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS, DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT. SPEAKING OF THAT COOLING ALOFT, THAT WILL DEFINITELY PUT THE BRAKES ON TEMPS HERE ON SUNDAY, AND WE WILL REACH OUR HIGHS BY OR BEFORE NOON.

LOOKING AHEAD, MONDAY WILL BE OUR COOLEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH, THEN A MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY.

SUMMER SUN PLAYING PEEKABOO

THE OVERALL THEME OF THE FORECAST FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND IS BASICALLY ON TARGET FROM WHAT WE HAD DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD TO MAKE SOME SHORT TERM TWEAKS, MOSTLY IN THE AREA OF SKY COVER. THE SURFACE HIGH THAT WAS CENTERED NEAR PITTSBURGH AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY IS NOW LOCATED UP OVER MAINE. THE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION AROUND THAT HIGH IS CAUSING A LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW OF AIR OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THAT, IN TURN, HAS RESULTED IN THE FORMATION OF SOME CLOUDINESS TODAY. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM YESTERDAY SLIGHTLY HINTED AT THAT POSSIBILITY, BUT THERE DID END UP BEING MORE CLOUDS AROUND TODAY THAN WHAT WE HAD BARGAINED FOR. GOING FORWARD, WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEING EASTERLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH THIS OCEAN BREEZE. THUS, THE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST TOWARD A CLOUDIER WORDING FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. WE STILL FEEL THAT THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROBABLY BE AT ITS PEAK COVERAGE AND EXTENT LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. THEN, THE AFTERNOON HOURS TOMORROW ARE LIKELY TO BE BRIGHTER.

WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT WILL NOT BE AS LOW TONIGHT AS THEY WERE LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, OUR MAX TEMPS TOMORROW COULD BE SOMEWHAT IN JEOPARDY, IF WE END UP BEING CLOUDIER LONGER THAN WE CURRENTLY THINK...OR, IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO...ALL DAY LONG!  OTHERWISE, AS LONG AS WE GET ENOUGH SUN TOMORROW, OUR HIGH TEMPS ARE LIKELY IN GOOD SHAPE.

MEANWHILE, A LEAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA. THAT ZONE OF MOISTURE WILL PUSH INTO NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST PA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY TONIGHT. THEN, THAT ZONE OF MOISTURE JUST WON'T BE ABLE TO MOVE MUCH FARTHER EASTWARD TOMORROW, DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS BEING SO FAR WEST, AND OUR UPPER FLOW BEING STRONGLY SOUTHWEST.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, THE BIGGEST CONCERN WE HAVE IS THAT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST SOME SCATTERED STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE T-STORMS AROUND SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT, ANYWHERE CENTRAL PA AND UPSTATE NY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THE SPC ALREADY HAS A SLIGHT RISK AREA OUT FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT, AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE.  TEMPS WILL BE AT THEIR WARMEST LEVELS ON SATURDAY, SINCE WE WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL. WE STILL FEEL THAT READINGS WILL REACH OR TOP THE 80 DEGREE MARK OVER A LARGE AREA ON SATURDAY EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, AND AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE A SOUTH WIND WILL KEEP THINGS A BIT COOLER. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE UP THAT DAY, GETTING TO OR PAST 60 IN MANY LOCATIONS, AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT LOOKS GOOD. WHILE THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS BY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST, IT DOES APPEAR THAT A DECENT LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE NEARBY FOR A TIME LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SO, STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, AND WITH THE FROPA, AS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MOVES EASTWARD. RIGHT NOW, WE FEEL THAT ANY ACTIVITY FROM NYC EASTWARD WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 6 PM AND PERHAPS 8 PM ON SATURDAY, WHILE IT DOES GET CRAZY LATE IN THE DAY INTO EASTERN PA AND WESTERN NJ.

BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY, THE MAIN THING TO EMPHASIZE WEATHER WISE IS THE CHANGE TO COOLER, DRIER, AND

BREEZY CONDITIONS. ANY LEFTOVER SHOWERS WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF NYC, AND THAT WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS, INSTABILITY SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT INTO THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS, DUE TO FALLING HEIGHTS AND COOLING ALOFT. SPEAKING OF THAT COOLING ALOFT, THAT WILL DEFINITELY PUT THE BRAKES ON TEMPS HERE ON SUNDAY, AND WE WILL REACH OUR HIGHS BY OR BEFORE NOON.

LOOKING AHEAD, MONDAY WILL BE OUR COOLEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH, THEN A MODERATING TREND WILL GET UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY.

FINE FINISH TO SUMMER

WHAT A DIFFERENCE 24 HOURS MAKES! YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME WE WERE DEALING WITH A WATERLOGGED COLD FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY EASTWARD, CAUSING HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING RAINS IN SOME AREAS, AS WELL AS STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS. FORTUNATELY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT CAUSED ALL OF THE HAVOC HAS PUSHED OFF THE EAST COAST. IN ITS WAKE, A MUCH DRIER AND STABLE AIR MASS HAS TAKEN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY. 24 HOURS AGO, DEW POINTS ACROSS OUR REGION WERE CLOSE TO 70. NOW, THEY ARE WAY DOWN IN THE 40S! A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED NEAR PITTSBURGH WILL BUILD NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, AND WILL BE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY TOMORROW MORNING. AS THAT HAPPENS, WE ARE IN STORE FOR A MOSTLY CLEAR, COOLER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND A NICE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

THE HIGH SLOWLY PUSH INTO ATLANTIC CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE DOWN TOWARD US. SO, WE EXPECT THE FINAL TWO DAYS OF THIS WORK WEEK TO TURN OUT PRETTY DECENT WEATHER WISE. ASIDE FROM A LITTLE PATCHY FOG EACH OF THE NEXT TWO MORNINGS, PERHAPS MORE SO ON FRIDAY, BOTH DAYS WILL LIKELY FEATURE AT LEAST SOME SUNSHINE WITH PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPS. FRIDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TOMORROW, EVEN ALONG THE COAST WHERE THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BREEZE OFF THE WATER.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, WE FEEL PRETTY STRONGLY THAT SATURDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH, SINCE WE WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL THAT DAY. IN MANY INLAND LOCATIONS EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, READINGS WILL TOP THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY. THE TIMING OF THE FRONT NOW SEEMS TO BE CLOSER ON THE MODELS THAN IT DID EVEN EARLIER TODAY. THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN A BIT FROM EARLIER RUNS, AND THE EURO LOOKS A TAD FASTER. THE LATEST TRENDS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THERE REALLY MAY NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. THAT GENERALLY DOES MAKE SENSE, WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS BEING WELL TO OUR WEST, AND MUCH OF THE ENERGY MISSING US TO THE NORTH AND WEST. FOR THAT REASON, WE NOW FEEL THAT A FORECAST OF A SINGULAR SHOWER POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY IS BETTER, AS OPPOSED TO A COUPLE OF SHOWERS. ALSO, THE EMPHASIS WILL LIKELY BE MORNING, RATHER THAN ANYTIME ON SUNDAY. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL STILL BE COMFORTABLE, BUT A TREND TOWARD COOLER CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. ONE LAST NOTE...FALL OFFICIALLY ARRIVES AT 10:49 AM ON SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 22ND.

PUT THE UMBRELLA IN THE BACKPACK

LABOR DAY IS OFTEN CONSIDERED TO BE THE UNOFFICIAL END TO THE SUMMER SEASON. IN REALITY, WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE END OF METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER, OR THE THREE MONTH PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST NORMAL TEMPS. IN THE WEEKS AHEAD, WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME SUMMERY WEATHER. HOWEVER, THE CHANCES OF GETTING ANY MORE EXTENDED SPELLS OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE PRETTY SLIM. EVEN WHEN WE DO GET A HOT, HUMID DAY IN SEPTEMBER, IT JUST ISN'T THE SAME AS A SWELTERING DAY BACK IN JUNE OR JULY. THAT'S BECAUSE THE SUN ANGLE IS LOWER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN LOOKING BACK AT THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND, OUR IDEA OF SATURDAY BEING THE BEST OF THE THREE DAYS WEATHER WISE DEFINITELY DID WORK OUT. THE DOWNHILL SLIDE IS IN PROGRESS WITH A TREND TOWARD MORE PESSIMISTIC WEATHER. ACROSS THE BOARD, CLOUDS HAVE DEFINITELY BECOME MORE PREVALENT, BOTH BY WAY OF THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS, DUE TO HIGH AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHING EASTWARD FROM WHAT WAS ONCE ISAAC. SPEAKING OF ISAAC, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS STILL VERY WELL-DEFINED ON THE SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSIS, CENTERED NEAR EVANSVILLE, IN AS OF 2 P.M.

THIS AFTERNOON. IF YOU LOOK AT THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS, THEY TRACK ISAAC'S REMAINS INTO EASTERN OHIO BY TOMORROW OR NEAR WHEELING, WV BY TOMORROW EVENING, TO A POSITION IN THE CATSKILLS BY SOME WEDNESDAY MORNING, AND TO OR JUST EAST OF BOSTON BY 8 P.M. WEDNESDAY.

MEANWHILE, ON THE SURFACE MAP WE SEE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE CENTRAL JERSEY SHORE NORTHWESTWARD INTO MICHIGAN. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF SOME VERY JUICY, TROPICAL AIR. DEW POINTS RIGHT NOW ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. THIS STICKY AIR WILL BE SPREADING FARTHER NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD IN THE SHORT TERM, AS THE WIND FLOW TURNS FROM EASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTHERLY. WITHIN THIS MUGGY AIR MASS, P-WAT VALUES ARE QUITE HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 2" TO 2.3". SO, WITH ISAAC MOVING EASTWARD IN THE FLOW, ENCOUNTERING THIS JUICY AIR, WE ABSOLUTELY HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR DRENCHING DOWNPOURS, AND PERHAPS LOCALLY ENOUGH HEAVY RAIN TO RESULT IN FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND HIGHWAYS. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE YOU REALLY DON'T NEED LIGHTNING AND THUNDER TO PRODUCE THE DOWNPOURS. EVEN SHOWERS CAN LEAD TO DELUGES. UNTIL THIS MOIST ZONE FINALLY SHIFT OUT OF HERE BY SOMETIME LATER WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WE ARE STILL FAIR GAME FOR AT LEAST ONE OR TWO MORE DOWNPOURS AROUND THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. OBVIOUSLY, WITH CLOUDS DOMINATING OUR SKIES TOMORROW, AND SOME WET WEATHER OCCURRING AT TIMES, IT DOES APPEAR THAT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE HELD DOWN. WEDNESDAY PROMISES TO BE AT LEAST SOMEWHAT WARMER AS OUR WIND FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST, AND SOME BREAKS OF SUN DEVELOP. THAT UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, AND THAT IS CURRENTLY OUR WARMEST DAY IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL STAY RATHER HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY, AND WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE AND SURFACE FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, THERE MAY BE A SHOWER OR T-STORM HERE THURSDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. HOWEVER, AT THIS JUNCTURE, IT APPEARS THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY THURSDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY, SINCE WE WILL BE IN THE SUBSIDENCE ZONE BEHIND ISAAC FOR AT LEAST AWHILE ON THURSDAY. WHAT HAPPENS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL BE STRONGLY DEPENDENT ON THE FUTURE COURSE OF "LESLIE" OUT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THAT STORM WILL PASS VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA LATE IN THE WEEK, AND COULD TAKE DIRECT AIM ON THAT ISLAND. LESLIE WILL GENERATE ROUGH SURF, SWELLS, AND RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE EAST COAST BEACHES LATER THIS WEEK. THAT WILL START AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY FROM VIRGINIA BEACH SOUTHWARD, AND THEN ALL UP AND DOWN THE COAST FROM THE CAROLINAS NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.