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August 2012

08/29/2012

WILL ISAAC INFLUENCE THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WEATHER?

                        ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10, TODAY'S WEATHER RATED PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERFECT 10! THE COLD FRONT THAT

SWEPT AWAY THE HIGH HUMIDITY OF EARLIER THIS WEEK IS NOW WELL OFF THE EAST COAST, AND HAS ALSO

PUSHED WAY TO OUR SOUTH. IN ITS WAKE, WE GOT INTO A NORTHERLY FLOW OF MUCH LESS HUMID AIR. A

GOOD SIZED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW CENTERED NEAR DETROIT, MI IS SLOWLY BUILDING TOWARD US.

THE RESULT HAS BEEN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TODAY WITH A FEW PUFFY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS,

COMFORTABLY LOW DEW POINTS, AND PLEASANT TEMPS. WITH THAT HIGH SETTLING INTO PA TONIGHT, WE

EXPECT CLEAR SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND COOL TEMPS WITH A BIG RANGE IN LOWS ACROSS THE AREA. WE

EXPECT READINGS TO DIP JUST BELOW 40 IN THE CHILLIEST LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND

NORTHCENTRAL PA AS WELL AS UPSTATE NY. PLACES SUCH AS BRADFORD AND KANE, PA MAY END UP WITH A

LOW OF 38 OR 39 DEGREES TOMORROW MORNING. ALSO, AS IS OFTEN THE CASE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, RIVER

VALLEY FOG IS ALMOST A GIVEN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING IN THE TRADITIONAL FOG SPOTS OF

THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.

                        OUR WEATHER WILL REMAIN IN "SNOOZE AND CRUISE" MODE FOR THE REST OF THE

WORK WEEK AND INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE WEEKEND. AS WE HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING ALL WEEK

LONG, WE WILL EXPERIENCE A PRETTY AGGRESSIVE WARMUP HERE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HEIGHTS

AND THICKNESSES RISE, AND 850 MB TEMPS TREND QUICKLY UPWARD. IN ADDITION, THE SURFACE PATTERN

SETTING UP THE NEXT TWO DAYS LOOKS VERY FAVORABLE FOR A FAST WARMUP. THE BIG HIGH THAT WE

MENTIONED EARLIER WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTHEAST VA BY LATE TOMORROW, AND THEN WILL SINK A BIT

FARTHER SOUTHWARD INTO THE CAROLINAS ON FRIDAY. THAT WILL PRODUCE A WEST TO SOUTHWEST

SURFACE FLOW HERE. WHAT THIS ADDS UP TO IS A WARMER DAY TOMORROW, EVEN AS DEW POINTS REMAIN

QUITE LOW. FRIDAY WILL BE NOTICEABLY HOTTER, AND HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO TREND BACK

UPWARD. WE HAVE NUDGED HIGH TEMPS FOR FRIDAY UP FROM WHAT WE HAD IN CONTINUITY EARLIER IN THE

WEEK. HOPEFULLY, WE ARE NOW HOT ENOUGH, BUT THOSE 850 MB TEMPS DO LOOK VERY IMPRESSIVE! GIVEN

THE POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE, AND THE DECENT NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS UPSTATE NY

AND NEW ENGLAND, THERE IS DEFINITELY ROOM FOR A COLD FRONT TO PRESS SOUTHWARD FRIDAY NIGHT

AND SATURDAY. JUST HOW MUCH OF A PUSH THAT FRONT HAS, AND THE SPEED AT WHICH IT MOVES

SOUTHWARD, WILL DETERMINE WHERE OUR TEMPS END UP ON SATURDAY.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE NAM SEEMED VERY BULLISH ON THE FRONT AND THE COOLING BEHIND IT FOR SATURDAY,

WHILE THE 00Z RUN OF THE EURO WAS MUCH SLOWER AND MUCH WARMER/HOTTER LOOKING THAT DAY.

PROBABLY, SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE IS THE BEST SOLUTION. WHILE THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL

LIKELY CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS ON FRIDAY WELL TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHEAST, AND

PERHAPS EVEN A FEW STRONG CELLS DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL JET UP THAT WAY, THE FROPA WILL PROBABLY

BE RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL FARTHER SOUTH.

                        MEANWHILE, ISAAC WILL CONTINUE TO CRAWL ALONG AT A

SNAIL'S PACE.EVENTUALLY, ISAAC WILL TAKE A SHARPER TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN THE NORTHEAST AS IT GETS

CAUGHT UP IN THE WESTERLIES. WHILE ISAAC PROMISES TO BRING MUCH NEEDED RAIN TO PARTS OF THE

NATION'S MID-SECTION, THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR TOO MUCH RAIN TO FALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF

TIME, LEADING TO FLOODING PROBLEMS WELL INLAND FROM WHERE IT IS NOW. THE REMNANTS OF ISAAC, AND

ITS MOISTURE, MAY EVENTUALLY AFFECT OUR WEATHER. HOWEVER, THAT MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL SOMETIME

EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW, WE ARE TRENDING OUR FORECAST MORE PESSIMISTIC SOUNDING AS WE HEAD

TOWARD LABOR DAY, BUT THE WORST WEATHER MAY OCCUR AFTER THE HOLIDAY.