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June 2012

06/18/2012

HEAT IN SYNC WITH THE CALENDAR

DURING THIS WEEK, SPRING 2012 WILL BE OFFICIALLY COMING TO AN END, AS SUMMER BEGINS AT 7:09 PM EDT WEDNESDAY. IT ALMOST SEEMS LIKE THE ATMOSPHERE IS AWARE OF THE CALENDAR! THE HOTTEST AND MOST OPPRESSIVE AIR MASS THAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE LAST SUMMER WILL BE OVERSPREAD THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES BY MID-WEEK, AND STICKING AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY.

 

 

 

SINCE IT IS EARLY IN THE SEASON, AND FOLKS ARE JUST NOT USED TO HEAT AND HUMIDITY, THIS STEAMY STRETCH COMING UP IS GOING TO BE QUITE NOTICEABLE. SOMETIMES, WHEN WE TRANSITION FROM A RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN FLOW LIKE WE HAVE NOW TO HARDCORE, MID-SUMMER STYLE TEMPS AND DEW POINTS, THERE IS A PRICE TO PAY IN THE FORM OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. WHILE OUR TRANSITION TO SUMMER MAY NOT BE ENTIRELY "CLEAN" AND FREE OF ANY PRECIP, IT DOES LOOK RELATIVELY SIMPLE AND STRAIGHTFORWARD. THAT IS PROBABLY DUE TO THE FACT THAT HEIGHTS WILL BE RISING STEADILY HERE FROM NOW UNTIL THEY PEAK LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE RISING HEIGHT FIELD AND WARMING ALOFT, SHOULD, FOR THE MOST PART, PUT A LID ON ANY EXTENSIVE OUTBREAK OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. IN FACT, IN ANY GIVEN SPOT, IT MAY NOT RAIN A DROP FROM NOW THROUGH THURSDAY. WE DO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS TONIGHT, JUST IN CASE WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH A SHOWER IN SPOTS. HOWEVER, THE MOST ACTIVE ZONE...AT LEAST THE WAY IT LOOKS NOW...SEEMS TO BE RUNNING FROM MICHIGAN SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF WV AND VA.

AT THE SURFACE, A WARM FRONT (SOME PLACES STILL STATIONARY) LOOPS FROM THE CAROLINAS UP INTO WESTERN PA AND SOUTHWESTERN NY STATE. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE PUSHING SLOWLY BUT SURELY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. SO, WHILE INLAND AREAS NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL BE GETTING NOTICEABLY WARMER AND MORE HUMID TOMORROW, A WIND COMPONENT OFF OF THE WATER WILL KEEP THE BEACHES NOTICEABLY COOLER.

 IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE STEAMY AIR WILL HAVE WORKED ITS WAY WELL EASTWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD BY WEDNESDAY. PROJECTED 850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES THAT DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS WELL UP IN THE 90S IN MANY LOCATIONS. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOKS VERY MUGGY, WITH READINGS HAVING A HARD TIME DROPPING MUCH BELOW 80 IN THE BIG CITIES OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SO, WITH A HIGH LAUNCHING PAD AND CONTINUED VERY WARM AIR ALOFT OVERHEAD...PLUS A FAVORABLE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SURFACE WIND FLOW...WE EXPECT MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY TO BE AT LEAST AS HIGH AS WEDNESDAY, AND PROBABLY SOMEWHAT HOTTER. HEIGHTS WILL BE SLOWLY BUT SURELY FALLING HERE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SO, WE MAY END UP HAVING TO DEAL WITH A THUNDERSTORM AT SOME POINT. WHEN IT IS THAT HOT AND HUMID, IT DOESN'T TAKE MUCH TO TRIGGER SOME T-STORM ACTIVITY, EVEN IF IT IS WELL AHEAD OF THE ACTUAL SURFACE COOL FRONT.

ON FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND T-STORMS MAY BE AROUND AS THE FRONT PRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION. TEMPS AND PROBABLY DEW POINTS WILL BE TRIMMED BACK SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY,