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May 2012

05/22/2012

CAN WE WORK OUT THE WEATHER KINKS DURING THE WORK WEEK?

WE ARE GOING TO STAY IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, WE SEE THE WEAK WAVE THAT WAS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME NOW ROLLING NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING THROUGH MICHIGAN AND NORTHWEST OHIO 24 HOURS AGO HAS LIMPED ITS WAY INTO WESTERN NY AND WESTERN PA. THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY FOR ONLY A LITTLE LONGER AND THEN EVENTUALLY JUST GET WASHED OUT AS IT TRIES TO MOVE A BIT FARTHER EASTWARD.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ONE WEAK DISTURBANCE IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, AND THAT NEW CLOSED LOW THAT WE MENTIONED YESTERDAY IS JUST BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THAT FEATURE WILL BE THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM THAT WE DEAL WITH FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AS IT VERY SLOWLY ROLLS NORTHEASTWARD.

AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING, THE OVERALL PATTERN FAVORS RISING HEIGHTS AND A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY, IN RESPONSE TO A VERY HEALTHY AND DEEP TROF DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN STATES. THAT CLOSED LOW MENTIONED EARLIER IS AN ANOMALY IN THE PATTERN...BUT SOMETHING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO CONTEND WITH TO SOME DEGREE OR ANOTHER. OF COURSE, THERE IS ALSO THAT OLD DYING FRONT NEARBY. SO, THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE IS NO TIME PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN WE CAN GUARANTEE DRY WEATHER.

THE GENERAL TREND WILL BE FOR TEMPS TO SLOWLY INCH THEIR WAY UPWARD A BIT EACH DAY THIS WEEK, AND WE'LL PROBABLY SEE A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN AND LESS SHOWER/T-STORM ACTIVITY GOING FORWARD. THAT BEING SAID, IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT AS THE UPPER LOW MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO US LATER THIS WEEK, WE WILL NOTICE SOMEWHAT OF AN ENHANCEMENT IN ACTIVITY. ORIGINALLY, WE THOUGHT THAT WOULD OCCUR ON THURSDAY. THAT STILL MAY HAPPEN, BUT THE EURO IS HINTING THAT THE ENHANCED PERIOD WILL OCCUR A BIT LATER THAN THAT...PERHAPS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF FRIDAY. JUST HOW ACTIVE IT IS LATER THIS WEEK, AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AROUND, WILL DETERMINE WHERE TEMPS END UP. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT INSTEAD OF A DAY TO DAY UPTICK IN TEMPS, THAT READINGS AT LEAST LEVEL OFF ONE DAY, AND PERHAPS EVEN GET A BIT OF A SETBACK.

ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT DEW POINTS WILL BE RATHER HIGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS, MAKING IT FEEL RATHER HUMID FOR MAY STANDARDS. THAT MOISTURE IN THE AIR, AND THE WET GROUND, WILL LEAD TO SOME NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING FOG. IT ALSO MEANS THAT RATHER HIGH P-WAT VALUES CAN LEAD TO A DRENCHING DOWNPOUR WITH ANY SHOWER OR T-STORM THAT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.

HEADING INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, IT IS BECOMING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT IT WILL BE ABLE TO GET QUITE WARM TO BORDERLINE HOT...AT LEAST FOR A TIME. YOU HAVE TO BELIEVE THAT IF THERE IS INDEED A SIDE DOOR OR BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWARD AT SOME POINT THIS WEEKEND, THEN IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO WARM UP CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF IT. THE TIMING OF THAT BOUNDARY IS VERY TRICKY, AS IS THE TASK OF FIGURING OUT JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH BEFORE STALLING OUT. WEST OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, AND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH, THIS LOOKS LIKE A STRAIGHT-FORWARD EARLY SEASON HEAT WAVE SITUATION SETTING UP FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE FARTHER NORTH AND EAST YOU GO, AND THE CLOSER TO THE COAST YOU GET, THE TOUGHER THE FORECAST BECOMES.

AS FOR SHOWERS AND/OR T-STORMS, WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO COVER THE CHANCE OF SOME ACTIVITY ON AT LEAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WE'LL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE OUR IDEAS FOR THE HOLIDAY AS WE GET CLOSER.

05/02/2012

OCEAN AIR KEEPS TEMPS DOWN TILL FRIDAY

WE ARE NOW INTO MAY, THE MONTH DURING WHICH SPRING GRADUALLY MORPHS INTO SUMMER. STATISTICALLY, MAY BRINGS MORE NICE DAYS THAN DREARY AND CHILLY DAYS. HOWEVER, WITH THE COOL OCEAN NEARBY, WE CAN CERTAINLY HAVE SOME OF THE LATTER TYPE OF WEATHER FROM TIME TO TIME. IN ADDITION, GIVEN THE RIGHT CONDITIONS, WE ARE STILL PRONE TO NOTICEABLE, BUT GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED, SHOTS OF CHILLY AIR FROM CENTRAL OR EASTERN CANADA. OF COURSE, OUR NORMAL TEMPS CONTINUE TO TREND UPWARD IN MAY, RISING FROM 67/50 ON THE 1ST TO 75/59 ON THE 31ST. THE DAYS CONTINUE TO GET LONGER THIS MONTH AS WE GAIN A TOTAL OF 56 MINUTES OF DAYLIGHT. MAY FEATURES AN UPTICK IN THE OCCURRENCE OF T-STORMS, AND ALSO A DECREASE IN THE AMOUNT OF TOTALLY OVERCAST DAYS. OF COURSE, IT WOULDN'T BE A TYPICAL MAY IF WE DIDN'T HAVE TO DEAL WITH PAIN-IN-THE-NECK BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...LIKE WE HAVE ON THE MAP TODAY.

THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MADE ITS MOVE FARTHER WESTWARD AND SOUTHWESTWARD SINCE YESTERDAY, AND IS NOW BASICALLY IN A STALL MODE. NOT MUCH WILL HAPPEN WITH THIS FRONT TONIGHT AS THE ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. THAT WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND DRIZZLE. WITH A WEAK FEATURE HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW, WE DO EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE MM5 IS FOCUSING MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY LATER TONIGHT INTO CENTRAL NY STATE, AND THEN RUNNING IT INTO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND OVER INTO CT BY TOMORROW MORNING. 

THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT TOMORROW WILL START OFF WHERE TODAY ENDED...CLOUDY, DAMP, AND DISMAL WITH A FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. THE BIG QUESTION WE HAVE IS...JUST HOW FAR EAST WILL THE FRONT BE ABLE TO PUSH TOMORROW, ALLOWING CLOUDS TO BREAK AND SWINGING WINDS AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST? THE AMERICAN MODELS, AND ESPECIALLY THE GFS, IS MUCH MORE BULLISH ON THE EASTWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT AND THE MUCH WARMER WEATHER SETTLING IN FOR TOMORROW. THE EURO, WHILE LOOKING A TAD MILDER THAN THE 00Z RUN, IS STILL HOLDING ONTO THE COOLER AND CLOUDIER LOOK FOR TOMORROW. THE 12Z RUN OF THE CANADIAN IS NOT AVAILABLE YET...AT LEAST THE GRIDDED NUMBERS. HOWEVER, THE UKMET IS VERY MUCH IN LINE WITH THE EURO, AND EVEN A BIT COOLER LOOKING. WE ARE VERY CONFIDENT THAT AT THE JERSEY SHORE, AND FROM NYC EASTWARD ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, TOMORROW WILL BE A CLOUDY, COOL DAY. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT IT, WHAT MECHANISM DO WE HAVE TOMORROW TO GET THE BOUNDARY TO MOVE VERY FAR EASTWARD TOMORROW? BASICALLY NOTHING!

BY FRIDAY, HOWEVER, THERE IS A MUCH BETTER CHANCE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE TO MAKE EASTWARD PROGRESS. THAT'S BECAUSE A SURFACE LOW WILL BE TRACKING INTO UPSTATE NY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. STILL, THERE WILL COME A POINT WHERE THE MUCH WARMER AIR WILL JUST RUN INTO A BRICK WALL AND WILL NOT BE ABLE TO PUSH ANYMORE. FOR THAT REASON, WE DID END UP TRIMMING SOME TEMPS BACK FROM PARTS OF NJ, EASTERN NY, AND THE NYC AREA EASTWARD ON FRIDAY. FARTHER WEST, WE ARE PROBABLY FINE WITH OUR MAX TEMP FORECASTS...AND IN SOME PLACES, WE MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH! WE FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER GETTING FARTHEST EAST WILL BE ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. EVEN SO, IT MAY NEVER THUNDER DURING THIS ENTIRE STRETCH ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, AS IT REMAINS TOO STABLE.

AS WE HAVE BEEN SEEING RECENTLY, THIS LOW HEADING INTO NY STATE ON FRIDAY WILL NOT BE ABLE TO JUST BOWL ITSELF EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. INSTEAD, IT WILL REDEVELOP, OR TRIPLE POINT, FARTHER SOUTHEAST OVER TIME...EVENTUALLY EXITING THE COAST OF NJ OR DE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT WILL ALLOW SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR TO BEGIN MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, AND IT WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT THE UNSETTLED ZONE FARTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A PRETTY NICE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND HERE.