TWO MORE TRIES AT 60 THEN A COLD WEEKEND WIND

ONE WEEK AGO TODAY, WE WERE LOOKING AT HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW THEY WERE PLAYING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STORM. HERE IT IS, SEVEN DAYS LATER, AND WE ARE ONCE AGAIN FACING MODEL BATTLES. THIS TIME, IT SEEMS TO BE THE U.S. MODELS AGAINST THE REST OF THE WORLD! THERE HAS BEEN SOME MOVEMENT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER, THEIR MAIN THEME OF SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE LOW, MORE RAIN, AND MUCH MORE EMPHASIS ON A TRIPLE POINT OR SECONDARY LOW CONTINUES.

OUR FORECASTS ARE STILL LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE AMERICAN MODELS, BUT WE CERTAINLY HAVE TO AT LEAST MENTION THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OTHER IDEAS POSED BY THE EURO, CANADIAN, AND UKMET COULD BE RIGHT. DESPITE THE FAIRLY NOTICEABLE IMPLICATIONS FOR FRIDAY'S WEATHER, AT LEAST THIS WEEK WE'RE NOT DEALING WITH THE ISSUE OF STORM VS. NO STORM, OR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL!

STEPPING BACK AND LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE OF THE WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALL OF THE MODELS ARE BASICALLY SINGING THE SAME TUNE...TODAY WAS A NICE, DRY, SPRINGLIKE DAY, IT WILL SHOWER A COUPLE OF TIMES TONIGHT AND PERHAPS EARLY TOMORROW, THEN THE BALANCE OF TOMORROW WILL BE DRY AND MILD AGAIN.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING, TO SOME DEGREE OR ANOTHER, A SPELL OF WET WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A VERY WINDY, CHILLIER DAY ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE BOARD, ALL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY, LESS WINDY, AND SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY HERE ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT'S WEATHER IS WHAT IS GIVING US THE MOST ANGST. WE'LL DEAL WITH THAT IN A BIT.

FIRST OF ALL, THE SETUP FOR TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON TWO MAIN AREAS OF UPWARD MOTION AND ENHANCED PRECIP...ONCE UP ACROSS NY STATE, AND THE OTHER TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH VA AND TOWARD THE DELMARVA COAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO ZONES, AND SO WE WILL PROBABLY JUST GET BY WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...AT MOST. THE MOISTURE WILL BE LEAVING THE SCENE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, OR ALREADY GONE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TOMORROW LOOKS DRY WITH A GUSTY, DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY BREEZE AT TIMES. THERE IS A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT BEHIND TONIGHT'S FEATURE, AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT LOWER TOMORROW. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED TO OR PAST 850 MB TOMORROW, THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD GUIDE FOR OUR SURFACE HIGH TEMPS. EVERYTHING IS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD TOWARD US. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN BREAKING OUT, AND THAT WET WEATHER COULD SPILL OVER INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. HOW LOW TEMPS GO TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE DEW POINTS ARE WHEN THE RAIN STARTS, AND HOW MUCH RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS. AS WE SAID EARLIER, FRIDAY'S FORECAST IS REALLY UP IN THE AIR, ALTHOUGH EVEN THE EURO IS NOW SUGGESTING A DRYING OUT PHASE AFTER FRIDAY MORNING. WHERE IT DIFFERS GREATLY, HOWEVER, IS BRINGING IN MORE PRECIP ON FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE, THE TEMP FORECAST ON FRIDAY IS THE MOST IN JEOPARDY, DEPENDING ON WHICH SET OF MODELS IS RIGHT. WE HATE TO BACK OFF OUR FORECAST OF REALLY MILD READINGS ON FRIDAY, AND THEN HAVE TO YANK TEMPS BACK UP AGAIN IN THE FACE OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE. IN ANY CASE, WE'LL GIVE THIS ONE MORE DAY TO FINALIZE.

SATURDAY LOOKS VERY BLUSTERY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO OR PAST 50 MPH. IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE RIGHT, THEN OUR MAX TEMPS THAT DAY ARE A TAD TOO HIGH. AGAIN, THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL FINE TUNE LATER ON.