THANKS FOR YOUR INPUT PHIL & CHUCK. WE'LL TAKE IT FROM HERE.

GROUNDHOG DAY IS COMING TO A CLOSE. PHIL SAYS WINTER AND CHUCK SAYS SPRING. HER'S OUR SHORT TERM TAKE: IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN A TRANSIENT PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, TEMPS WILL TENDD TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, THERE ARE HINTS ON THE MODELS THAT IT COULD TURN GENUINELY COLD...AT LEAST FOR ACOUPLE OF DAYS...BY NEXT WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO CONSIDER IN THIS SITUATION. THE MOS NUMBERS DO HAVE, TO SOME DEGREE OR ANOTHER, SNOW COVER FACTORED INTO THE MID-WINTER EQUATIONS. WITH SUCH A LACK OF SNOW ON THE GROUND...NOT ONLY IN OUR AREA, BUT ALSO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE U.S....DAYTIME TEMPS WILL TEND TO BE AT LEAST A BIT HIGHER THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD BE, ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL. WE CERTAINLY SAW EVIDENCE OF THE OVER-ACHIEVING EFFECT WITH TEMPS YESTERDAY AND TUESDAY. SO, ON ANY DAYS WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPS WILL BUST ON THE HIGH SIDE, WE PROBABLY SHOULD JUST ASSUME THAT THEY WILL...AS LONG AS PRECIP IS NOT A FACTOR.

THE OTHER THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY HEADING UPWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THAT WILL CERTAINLY BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS AT FIRST. HOWEVER, THAT WILL CHANGE ONCE WE GET TO MARCH 1ST.

Forecast Discussion Page 2

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS OF OUR FORECAST, THE WAVE THAT RAN BY TO OUR SOUTH IS WELL OFFSHORE. CLOUDS ARE REALLY BEING STUBBORN AND SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO TWO MAIN REASONS...(1) THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC, WITH THE LOW HEADING OUT TO SEA. (2) HEIGHTS WERE FALLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING, AND WE WERE STILL IN PVA. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL REVERSE THEMSELVES OVERNIGHT, AND DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. CLEARING HAS WORKED INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, AND CLOUDS ARE ALSO BREAKING UP WELL TO OUR NORTH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. SO, THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BY THE TIME DAYLIGHT ROLLS AROUND, WE WILL BE DAWNING MOSTLY SUNNY.

TOMORROW WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH GOOD DEAL OF SUN, AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA BY LATE IN THE DAY. TOMORROW NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TONIGHT. FORTUNATELY, THE PROGS HAVE COME MUCH CLOSER TOGETHER NOW WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WEATHER. NO LONGER ARE WE DEALING WITH HUGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. THE CANADIAN STILL HAS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. AT THIS JUNCTURE, IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A PIECE OF THE MIDWEST STORM WILL GET EJECTED QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE FLOW. HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING FAIRLY FLAT, THAT FEATURE IS LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, ONCE YOU GET TO ABOUT THE LATITUDE OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, THEN IT DOES GET A BIT MORE DICEY.

A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE, INSTEAD OF PICKING UP THAT EASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM, WILL INSTEAD ACT AS A KICKER AND A SUPPRESSOR. ALTHOUGH THE AIR WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME THIS WEEKEND, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE NORTHERN BRANCH VORT MAX ENDS UP BEING POTENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SNOW SHOWER...OR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES.

MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY, THEN THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.