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02/13/2012

NOT MUCH SUN, BUT NO BIG STORMS REST OF THE WEEK

IT ACTUALLY LOOKED AND FELT LIKE WINTER THIS PAST WEEKEND! HOWEVER, IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS, OUR WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY WASN'T ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. AS WE SUSPECTED FROM LAST FRIDAY, TODAY ENDED UP BEING A BRISK DAY, BUT TEMPS ARE TRENDING BACK UPWARD AGAIN, THANKS TO SUNSHINE, WARMING ALOFT, AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. LOOKING BACK AT LEAST WEEK (THE 5TH THROUGH THE 11TH), TEMPS RAN 4.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS WEEK, IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL LIKELY END UP WITH YET ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL WEEK IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. TODAY IS SEASONABLY CHILLY, AND TEMPS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. HOWEVER, THE SPACE IN BETWEEN WILL FEATURE TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL. WHAT'S MORE, THERE IS NO INDICATION OF ANY TRULY COLD AIR HEADING OUR WAY ANYTIME DURING THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. BY THAT POINT, WE WILL HEADING TOWARD THE END OF FEBRUARY!

AS FOR SOME POSSIBLE PITFALLS IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK, WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT TEMPS RUNNING A TAD LOWER THAN WE HAVE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, IF THERE ENDS UP BEING MORE PRECIP AROUND THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY BARGAINING FOR. THE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT EVENT REALLY DOES LOOK PRETTY WIMPY AND MINOR. THAT IS BECAUSE THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT PIECES OF ENERGY THAT WILL BE COMING ALONG, AND VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION AT THE SURFACE. EVEN SO, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO SQUEEZE OUT A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP. IF IT DOES INDEED PRECIP, THEN WE ARE ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A CASE WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MARGINAL, AND IN SOME LOCATIONS, TOO MILD FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. EVEN IN THE PLACES WHERE IT DOES SNOW A BIT TOMORROW OR TOMORROW EVENING, WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IT WILL BE A MILD DAY.  HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WE FACE THAT DAY IS WHETHER OR NOT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH ALL DAY. IF THAT DOES INDEED HAPPEN AND IT STAYS CLOUDY ALL DAY, THEN WE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER, IF CLOUDS JUST BREAK A BIT, THEN WE ARE PROBABLY OK.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT COMING UP WILL BE SOMETIME THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, WE ARE FACED WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS, WITH THE NAM AND OLD CANADIAN BEING THE SLOWEST, AND THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. WHILE THAT NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO BRING IS JUST RAIN, WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET OCCURRING AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY, PRECIP ARRIVING, AND WET BULBING TAKING PLACE, WE DON'T WANT TO PREDICT TEMPS TOO HIGH THAT DAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HEAD UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE A SECONDARY LOW, OR TRIPLE POINT LOW, FORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND RUNS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE.

BEHIND THIS COMPLEX, FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD, SINCE THERE IS NO COLD AIR BEHIND IT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WELL MIXED THAT DAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY, THEN WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A CLIPPER TYPE OF FEATURE ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY, WE HAVE TAKEN SATURDAY'S MAX UP, AND ADDED FLURRIES TO SUNDAY.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on February 13, 2012 | Permalink

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