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02/20/2012

NO SIGN OF SUSTAINED COLD FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF FEBRUARY

AFTER ALL OF THE CONCERN LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND COASTAL STORM, NOT EVEN FLAKE FOR US AS THE STORM SLIPPED HARMELESSLY TO OUR SOUTH. IF YOU LOOK AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP, YOU CAN REALLY SEE THE SNOW ON THE GROUND VERY WELL ACROSS PARTS OF VA, SOUTHERN WV, EASTERN KY, AND NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL NC. IT IS ALSO NEAT TO SEE THE SNOW BEING ERODED AWAY AT THE EDGES.

ONCE AGAIN, WE HAD A SITUATION WHERE A CHILLY AIR MASS MOVED INTO THE REGION, BUT THE COLD SHOT WAS SHORT-LIVED. ALSO, DUE TO A LACK OF SNOW ON THE GROUND, AND THE STRENGTHENING SUN, TEMPS TODAY ENDED UP GETTING HIGHER THAN WE HAD BARGAINED FOR LATE LAST WEEK. SPEAKING OF THE SUN, WE ARE NOW ALMOST TWO MONTHS PAST THE WINTER SOLSTICE. THE INCREASING SOLAR ENERGY IS REALLY BEGINNING TO BE NOTICEABLE. JUST SIT IN YOUR VEHICLE AT MIDDAY ON A SUNNY DAY! IN RESPONSE TO THE LENGTHENING DAYLIGHT AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE, THE NORMAL TEMPS ARE SNOW SLOWLY ON THEIR WAY BACK UP. IN A LITTLE MORE THAN A WEEK FROM NOW, THAT UPWARD TREND IN NORMALS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE.

LATER THIS WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY MILD AIR. WE ARE PRETTY HIGH WITH OUR MAX TEMPS NOW. HOWEVER, OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR READINGS TO OVER-ACHIEVE ON EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...OR PERHAPS BOTH DAYS. THE TIMING OF THE LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHICH DAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST HERE.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE EURO, AND IS FORECASTING THURSDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER, AND IS LEANING TOWARD FRIDAY AS BEING THE BLOW TORCH DAY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE WILL WORK OUT THOSE TEMP DETAILS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF MODERATELY COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY BEING OUR UNSTABLE, TRANSITION DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR BUFFALO, NY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THAT WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A BIG RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT DEPARTING HIGH, WE'LL GET INTO A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW. ALONG WITH THE MILD TEMPS WILL ALSO COME INCREASED MOISTURE. SO, WE EXPECT SUNSHINE TO BE FOLLOWED BY SOME CLOUDS. A SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST INTO NY STATE BY LATE IN THE DAY, AND THEN ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. THAT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER AT SOME POINT. THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO FROM LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

HOWEVER, OUR MAIN PRECIP EVENT OF THE WEEK WILL COME ON FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SLOWER THAT FRONT ENDS UP BEING, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FORM ALONG IT, THUS ENHANCING OUR RAINFALL. THAT IS ANOTHER ISSUE THAT WE WILL LOOK AT MORE CAREFULLY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on February 20, 2012 | Permalink

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