Blog or Bust

TWO MORE TRIES AT 60 THEN A COLD WEEKEND WIND

ONE WEEK AGO TODAY, WE WERE LOOKING AT HUGE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW THEY WERE PLAYING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND STORM. HERE IT IS, SEVEN DAYS LATER, AND WE ARE ONCE AGAIN FACING MODEL BATTLES. THIS TIME, IT SEEMS TO BE THE U.S. MODELS AGAINST THE REST OF THE WORLD! THERE HAS BEEN SOME MOVEMENT OF THE GLOBAL MODELS TOWARD THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTION. HOWEVER, THEIR MAIN THEME OF SLOWER AND DEEPER WITH THE LOW, MORE RAIN, AND MUCH MORE EMPHASIS ON A TRIPLE POINT OR SECONDARY LOW CONTINUES.

OUR FORECASTS ARE STILL LEANED HEAVILY TOWARD THE AMERICAN MODELS, BUT WE CERTAINLY HAVE TO AT LEAST MENTION THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE OTHER IDEAS POSED BY THE EURO, CANADIAN, AND UKMET COULD BE RIGHT. DESPITE THE FAIRLY NOTICEABLE IMPLICATIONS FOR FRIDAY'S WEATHER, AT LEAST THIS WEEK WE'RE NOT DEALING WITH THE ISSUE OF STORM VS. NO STORM, OR HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL!

STEPPING BACK AND LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE OF THE WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, ALL OF THE MODELS ARE BASICALLY SINGING THE SAME TUNE...TODAY WAS A NICE, DRY, SPRINGLIKE DAY, IT WILL SHOWER A COUPLE OF TIMES TONIGHT AND PERHAPS EARLY TOMORROW, THEN THE BALANCE OF TOMORROW WILL BE DRY AND MILD AGAIN.

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING, TO SOME DEGREE OR ANOTHER, A SPELL OF WET WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK, FOLLOWED BY A VERY WINDY, CHILLIER DAY ON SATURDAY. ACROSS THE BOARD, ALL SOLUTIONS ARE POINTING TOWARD A MOSTLY SUNNY, LESS WINDY, AND SEASONABLY CHILLY DAY HERE ON SUNDAY. THE DETAILS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT'S WEATHER IS WHAT IS GIVING US THE MOST ANGST. WE'LL DEAL WITH THAT IN A BIT.

FIRST OF ALL, THE SETUP FOR TONIGHT SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON TWO MAIN AREAS OF UPWARD MOTION AND ENHANCED PRECIP...ONCE UP ACROSS NY STATE, AND THE OTHER TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH VA AND TOWARD THE DELMARVA COAST. WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE TWO ZONES, AND SO WE WILL PROBABLY JUST GET BY WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS...AT MOST. THE MOISTURE WILL BE LEAVING THE SCENE BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, OR ALREADY GONE.  THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY TOMORROW LOOKS DRY WITH A GUSTY, DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY BREEZE AT TIMES. THERE IS A LITTLE COOLING ALOFT BEHIND TONIGHT'S FEATURE, AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED TO BE A BIT LOWER TOMORROW. WITH THE ATMOSPHERE WELL MIXED TO OR PAST 850 MB TOMORROW, THOSE TEMPS SHOULD BE A PRETTY GOOD GUIDE FOR OUR SURFACE HIGH TEMPS. EVERYTHING IS INDICATING ANOTHER DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SET UP TOMORROW NIGHT WITH THE WARM FRONT BEGINNING TO MAKE A PUSH NORTHWARD TOWARD US. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME RAIN BREAKING OUT, AND THAT WET WEATHER COULD SPILL OVER INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY. HOW LOW TEMPS GO TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DEPEND ON WHERE DEW POINTS ARE WHEN THE RAIN STARTS, AND HOW MUCH RAIN ACTUALLY FALLS. AS WE SAID EARLIER, FRIDAY'S FORECAST IS REALLY UP IN THE AIR, ALTHOUGH EVEN THE EURO IS NOW SUGGESTING A DRYING OUT PHASE AFTER FRIDAY MORNING. WHERE IT DIFFERS GREATLY, HOWEVER, IS BRINGING IN MORE PRECIP ON FRIDAY NIGHT. OF COURSE, THE TEMP FORECAST ON FRIDAY IS THE MOST IN JEOPARDY, DEPENDING ON WHICH SET OF MODELS IS RIGHT. WE HATE TO BACK OFF OUR FORECAST OF REALLY MILD READINGS ON FRIDAY, AND THEN HAVE TO YANK TEMPS BACK UP AGAIN IN THE FACE OF OVERWHELMING EVIDENCE. IN ANY CASE, WE'LL GIVE THIS ONE MORE DAY TO FINALIZE.

SATURDAY LOOKS VERY BLUSTERY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS TO OR PAST 50 MPH. IF THE GFS AND NAM ARE RIGHT, THEN OUR MAX TEMPS THAT DAY ARE A TAD TOO HIGH. AGAIN, THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL FINE TUNE LATER ON.

NO SIGN OF SUSTAINED COLD FOR THE FINAL DAYS OF FEBRUARY

AFTER ALL OF THE CONCERN LEADING UP TO THE WEEKEND COASTAL STORM, NOT EVEN FLAKE FOR US AS THE STORM SLIPPED HARMELESSLY TO OUR SOUTH. IF YOU LOOK AT THE VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP, YOU CAN REALLY SEE THE SNOW ON THE GROUND VERY WELL ACROSS PARTS OF VA, SOUTHERN WV, EASTERN KY, AND NORTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL NC. IT IS ALSO NEAT TO SEE THE SNOW BEING ERODED AWAY AT THE EDGES.

ONCE AGAIN, WE HAD A SITUATION WHERE A CHILLY AIR MASS MOVED INTO THE REGION, BUT THE COLD SHOT WAS SHORT-LIVED. ALSO, DUE TO A LACK OF SNOW ON THE GROUND, AND THE STRENGTHENING SUN, TEMPS TODAY ENDED UP GETTING HIGHER THAN WE HAD BARGAINED FOR LATE LAST WEEK. SPEAKING OF THE SUN, WE ARE NOW ALMOST TWO MONTHS PAST THE WINTER SOLSTICE. THE INCREASING SOLAR ENERGY IS REALLY BEGINNING TO BE NOTICEABLE. JUST SIT IN YOUR VEHICLE AT MIDDAY ON A SUNNY DAY! IN RESPONSE TO THE LENGTHENING DAYLIGHT AND HIGHER SUN ANGLE, THE NORMAL TEMPS ARE SNOW SLOWLY ON THEIR WAY BACK UP. IN A LITTLE MORE THAN A WEEK FROM NOW, THAT UPWARD TREND IN NORMALS WILL REALLY BEGIN TO ACCELERATE.

LATER THIS WEEK, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH YET ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY MILD AIR. WE ARE PRETTY HIGH WITH OUR MAX TEMPS NOW. HOWEVER, OUR GUT FEELING IS THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR READINGS TO OVER-ACHIEVE ON EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY...OR PERHAPS BOTH DAYS. THE TIMING OF THE LATE-WEEK COLD FRONT WILL BE CRITICAL IN DETERMINING WHICH DAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST HERE.  THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE EURO, AND IS FORECASTING THURSDAY TO BE THE WARMER OF THE TWO. THE EURO IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER, AND IS LEANING TOWARD FRIDAY AS BEING THE BLOW TORCH DAY ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. WE WILL WORK OUT THOSE TEMP DETAILS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, ANOTHER QUICK SHOT OF MODERATELY COLD AIR IS ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND, WITH SATURDAY BEING OUR UNSTABLE, TRANSITION DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR BUFFALO, NY WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK. THAT WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A BIG RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT DEPARTING HIGH, WE'LL GET INTO A RETURN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TOMORROW. ALONG WITH THE MILD TEMPS WILL ALSO COME INCREASED MOISTURE. SO, WE EXPECT SUNSHINE TO BE FOLLOWED BY SOME CLOUDS. A SHORT WAVE WILL LIFT TO OUR NORTH AND WEST INTO NY STATE BY LATE IN THE DAY, AND THEN ANOTHER WEAK AREA OF VORTICITY ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS WILL COME THROUGH THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT. THAT MAY TOUCH OFF A SHOWER AT SOME POINT. THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO MORE OPPORTUNITIES FOR A SHOWER OR TWO FROM LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

HOWEVER, OUR MAIN PRECIP EVENT OF THE WEEK WILL COME ON FRIDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SLOWER THAT FRONT ENDS UP BEING, THE MORE LIKELY IT IS THAT A LOW PRESSURE WAVE WILL FORM ALONG IT, THUS ENHANCING OUR RAINFALL. THAT IS ANOTHER ISSUE THAT WE WILL LOOK AT MORE CAREFULLY IN THE DAYS AHEAD.

NOT MUCH SUN, BUT NO BIG STORMS REST OF THE WEEK

IT ACTUALLY LOOKED AND FELT LIKE WINTER THIS PAST WEEKEND! HOWEVER, IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS, OUR WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS REALLY WASN'T ANYTHING OUT OF THE ORDINARY FOR THE MIDDLE OF FEBRUARY. AS WE SUSPECTED FROM LAST FRIDAY, TODAY ENDED UP BEING A BRISK DAY, BUT TEMPS ARE TRENDING BACK UPWARD AGAIN, THANKS TO SUNSHINE, WARMING ALOFT, AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY FLOW. LOOKING BACK AT LEAST WEEK (THE 5TH THROUGH THE 11TH), TEMPS RAN 4.3 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. LOOKING AHEAD TO THIS WEEK, IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL LIKELY END UP WITH YET ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL WEEK IN THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTMENT. TODAY IS SEASONABLY CHILLY, AND TEMPS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE SOMEWHAT LOWER. HOWEVER, THE SPACE IN BETWEEN WILL FEATURE TEMPS AVERAGING NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL. WHAT'S MORE, THERE IS NO INDICATION OF ANY TRULY COLD AIR HEADING OUR WAY ANYTIME DURING THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. BY THAT POINT, WE WILL HEADING TOWARD THE END OF FEBRUARY!

AS FOR SOME POSSIBLE PITFALLS IN THE FORECAST THIS WEEK, WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT TEMPS RUNNING A TAD LOWER THAN WE HAVE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, IF THERE ENDS UP BEING MORE PRECIP AROUND THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY BARGAINING FOR. THE TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT EVENT REALLY DOES LOOK PRETTY WIMPY AND MINOR. THAT IS BECAUSE THERE ARE A COUPLE OF DIFFERENT PIECES OF ENERGY THAT WILL BE COMING ALONG, AND VERY LITTLE ORGANIZATION AT THE SURFACE. EVEN SO, THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO SQUEEZE OUT A SMALL AMOUNT OF PRECIP. IF IT DOES INDEED PRECIP, THEN WE ARE ONCE AGAIN DEALING WITH A CASE WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS VERY MARGINAL, AND IN SOME LOCATIONS, TOO MILD FOR SNOW. HOWEVER, THE TEMPS ALOFT ARE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. EVEN IN THE PLACES WHERE IT DOES SNOW A BIT TOMORROW OR TOMORROW EVENING, WE EXPECT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION.

HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY, THERE IS NO DOUBT THAT IT WILL BE A MILD DAY.  HOWEVER, THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WE FACE THAT DAY IS WHETHER OR NOT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HANG TOUGH ALL DAY. IF THAT DOES INDEED HAPPEN AND IT STAYS CLOUDY ALL DAY, THEN WE MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. HOWEVER, IF CLOUDS JUST BREAK A BIT, THEN WE ARE PROBABLY OK.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP EVENT COMING UP WILL BE SOMETIME THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN, WE ARE FACED WITH TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS, WITH THE NAM AND OLD CANADIAN BEING THE SLOWEST, AND THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST. WHILE THAT NEXT SYSTEM SEEMS DESTINED TO BRING IS JUST RAIN, WE ARE A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT SOME WET SNOW OR SLEET OCCURRING AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. WITH A SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY, PRECIP ARRIVING, AND WET BULBING TAKING PLACE, WE DON'T WANT TO PREDICT TEMPS TOO HIGH THAT DAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ONE LOW PRESSURE CENTER HEAD UP WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION, WHILE A SECONDARY LOW, OR TRIPLE POINT LOW, FORMS SOMEWHERE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND RUNS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THERE.

BEHIND THIS COMPLEX, FRIDAY LOOKS DRY AND RELATIVELY MILD, SINCE THERE IS NO COLD AIR BEHIND IT AND THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME WELL MIXED THAT DAY. OVER THE WEEKEND, SATURDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY, THEN WE MAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH A CLIPPER TYPE OF FEATURE ON SUNDAY. CONSEQUENTLY, WE HAVE TAKEN SATURDAY'S MAX UP, AND ADDED FLURRIES TO SUNDAY.

SOLAR SPRING SNOW

HAPPY SOLAR SPRING! YES INDEED, THE SUN WILL HAVE INCREASING STRENGTH IN THE WEEKS AHEAD, AND WINTER WILL EVENTUALLY RUN OUT OF TIME. IN THE MEANTIME, WE ACTUALLY DO HAVE SOME WINTRY WEATHER IN THE FORECAST...BOTH SNOW, AND COLD TEMPS.

THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS HUNG UP JUST TO OUR NORTH TODAY CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD. CHILLIER, BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD, AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW. MEANWHILE, AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES. THAT DISTURBANCE WILL HEAD QUICKLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW, AND SPAWN A WEAK WAVE OR WRINKLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, SKIES WILL TURN OUT CLOUDY HERE TOMORROW, AND IT STILL LOOKS LIKE WE ARE IN STORE FOR A PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT PRECIP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS WILL BE ONE OF THOSE SITUATIONS WHERE TEMPS ALOFT ARE PLENTY COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW...THAT IS CERTAINLY THE CASE LOOKING AT THICKNESSES AND 850 MB TEMPS. THE ONLY POSSIBLE ISSUE WILL BE WHAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE LIKE WHEN THE PRECIP GETS UNDERWAY. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE FEEL THAT LOW LEVEL TEMPS MAY BE JUST MARGINAL ENOUGH FOR AWHILE FOR SOME RAINDROPS TO BE PRESENT FROM THE CT. COAST, ACROSS LONG ISLAND, DOWN ALONG THE JERSEY SHORE, BACK TO NEAR PHL AND THEN SOUTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND BACK INTO THE BALTIMORE-WASHINGTON AREA. EVERYWHERE NORTH AND WEST OF THERE, THE ATMOSPHERE IS LIKELY TO BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ALL SNOW TO FALL. BY TOMORROW EVENING, WITH FURTHER COOLING TAKING PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER, EVEN THE AREAS THAT STARTED OUT AS A MIX WILL PROBABLY GO TO ALL SNOW. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THAT MAY BE THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE DELMARVA WHERE RAIN WILL GO TO A MIX.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ON THE MODELS, IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST UPWARD MOTION WANTS TO EVENTUALLY TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN PA, MD, WV, VA, AND THEN OVER TO THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE QPF WILL DEFINITELY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE WITH THIS SYSTEM...GENERALLY 0.10" OR LESS. THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO A COATING TO AT MOST AN INCH OF WET SNOW, WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF THE 1" BEING IN THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COVERAGE AREA. WHILE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATION WILL OCCUR ON NON-PAVED SURFACES, WE DO HAVE TO COVER FOR SLICK SPOTS DEVELOPING TOMORROW NIGHT AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING.

BEHIND THIS FEATURE, DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY RETURN, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A REALLY NICE DAY WEATHER WISE ON THURSDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN TEMPS. FRIDAY WILL BE OUR MILDEST DAY OF THE NEXT SEVERAL SINCE WE WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL THAT DAY WITH A DECENT SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE.

THE WEEKEND WEATHER IS FULL OF CHALLENGES, NOT JUST DEALING WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF THE MUCH COLDER AIR, BUT ALSO FIGURING OUT WHETHER OR NOT THERE WILL BE ANY PRECIP...AND IF THERE WILL BE RAPID CYCLOGENESIS JUST OFF THE EAST COAST AS HEIGHTS CRASH INTO A TIGHT BAROCLINIC ZONE. FOR NOW, WE HAVE ADDED THE CHANCE OF FLURRIES FOR SATURDAY, BUT WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT A HEAVIER SNOW SHOWER OR A PERIOD OF STEADY SNOW.

A BITTER WIND SATURDAY NIGHT & SUNDAY WILL USHER IN THE COLDEST AIR SINCE JANUARY 21ST.

 

50 & CONFETTI FLYING TOMORROW. FLAKES FLYING WEDNESDAY.

THE THREE MONTHS, OR 1/4 OF THE YEAR, WITH THE SHORTEST DAYS AND THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS SOLAR WINTER. THIS PERIOD RUNS FROM EARLY NOVEMBER TO EARLY FEBRUARY, AND IS CENTERED ON THE WINTER SOLSTICE IN LATE DECEMBER. SOLAR WINTER IS NOW ENDING, AND WE ARE HEADING INTO THE NEXT THREE MONTH PERIOD CALLED SOLAR SPRING, OR THE QUARTER OF THE YEAR WITH THE MOST RAPID GAIN IN DAYLIGHT AND SOLAR STRENGTH. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF SOLAR SPRING, WE ARE ALSO ENTERING A TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN SOME OF THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS IN HISTORY HAVE OCCURRED. FEBRUARY 6TH AND 7TH IS THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE FAMOUS BLIZZARD OF '78 THAT DUMPED AS MUCH AS 40-50 INCHES OF SNOW ON PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THE BLIZZARD OF '83 OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 11TH. YOU CAN ADD A NUMBER OF OTHER STORMS TO THAT LIST. EARLY TO MID-FEBRUARY IS A TIME WHEN WARMING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD MORE NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES, WHILE IT REMAINS VERY COLD WAY UP NORTH IN MOST OF CANADA. THAT, IN TURN, GENERALLY TIGHTENS UP THE NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS, WHICH IS ONE OF THE INGREDIENTS YOU LIKE TO SEE FOR POTENT STORMS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE OCEANS USUALLY REACH THEIR COLDEST LEVELS LATER THIS MONTH, MAKING IT HARDER FOR STORMS TO BE EITHER ALL RAIN OR FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN. OF COURSE, THIS IS ALL IN A "NORMAL" SITUATION, WHICH THIS WINTER HAS DEFINITELY NOT BEEN.

IN LOOKING OVER THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM SOME OF THE MODELS, THERE IS CERTAINLY A SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO AS TO HOW THINGS EVOLVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRENDS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, TODAY WAS ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE OVER-ACHIEVING DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS, GIVEN THE BARE GROUND, SUNSHINE, AND WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW. AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT, WE'VE GOT ANOTHER MILD DAY IN STORE TOMORROW, SINCE WE WILL BE AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING OF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WE DECIDED TO TWEAK TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM ABOUT I-78 SOUTHWARD.  THAT ZONE OF TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PROGGED COULD EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THAT.

BY WEDNESDAY, CHILLIER, BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD, AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. TO SOME DEGREE OR ANOTHER, THE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SORT OF WEAK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD IN THE FLOW. THAT FEATURE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE CLOUDS HERE, AND PROBABLY A TOUCH OF PRECIP. THE 850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW, BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN DROPS AS WELL. THE PRECIP SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, PARTS OF THE AREA PICK UP A COATING OF SNOW ON NON-PAVED SURFACES FOLLOWING THAT MINOR EVENT, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS AGAIN...BUT IT PROBABLY WON'T GET QUITE AS MILD AS IT IS NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE. THE EURO HAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW. THE CHALLENGES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE (1) TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR, (2) DETERMINING HOW COLD IT IS EVENTUALLY GOING TO GET, AND (3) IF THE COLD AIR WILL BE PRECEDED BY OR ACCOMPANIED BY ANY PRECIP. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN LATER REPORTS.

 

 

THANKS FOR YOUR INPUT PHIL & CHUCK. WE'LL TAKE IT FROM HERE.

GROUNDHOG DAY IS COMING TO A CLOSE. PHIL SAYS WINTER AND CHUCK SAYS SPRING. HER'S OUR SHORT TERM TAKE: IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL REMAIN IN A TRANSIENT PATTERN FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. FOR MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY, TEMPS WILL TENDD TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL. HOWEVER, THERE ARE HINTS ON THE MODELS THAT IT COULD TURN GENUINELY COLD...AT LEAST FOR ACOUPLE OF DAYS...BY NEXT WEEKEND.

ONE THING TO CONSIDER IN THIS SITUATION. THE MOS NUMBERS DO HAVE, TO SOME DEGREE OR ANOTHER, SNOW COVER FACTORED INTO THE MID-WINTER EQUATIONS. WITH SUCH A LACK OF SNOW ON THE GROUND...NOT ONLY IN OUR AREA, BUT ALSO ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF THE U.S....DAYTIME TEMPS WILL TEND TO BE AT LEAST A BIT HIGHER THAN THEY NORMALLY WOULD BE, ALL THINGS BEING EQUAL. WE CERTAINLY SAW EVIDENCE OF THE OVER-ACHIEVING EFFECT WITH TEMPS YESTERDAY AND TUESDAY. SO, ON ANY DAYS WHEN THERE IS A CHANCE THAT TEMPS WILL BUST ON THE HIGH SIDE, WE PROBABLY SHOULD JUST ASSUME THAT THEY WILL...AS LONG AS PRECIP IS NOT A FACTOR.

THE OTHER THING TO KEEP IN MIND IS THAT NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE SLOWLY HEADING UPWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW WEEKS. THAT WILL CERTAINLY BE A VERY GRADUAL PROCESS AT FIRST. HOWEVER, THAT WILL CHANGE ONCE WE GET TO MARCH 1ST.

Forecast Discussion Page 2

AS FOR SOME OF THE SPECIFICS OF OUR FORECAST, THE WAVE THAT RAN BY TO OUR SOUTH IS WELL OFFSHORE. CLOUDS ARE REALLY BEING STUBBORN AND SLOW TO CLEAR OUT. THIS IS PROBABLY DUE TO TWO MAIN REASONS...(1) THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC, WITH THE LOW HEADING OUT TO SEA. (2) HEIGHTS WERE FALLING SLIGHTLY THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING, AND WE WERE STILL IN PVA. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL REVERSE THEMSELVES OVERNIGHT, AND DRIER AIR WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT. CLEARING HAS WORKED INTO AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, AND CLOUDS ARE ALSO BREAKING UP WELL TO OUR NORTH NEAR LAKE ONTARIO. SO, THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT BY THE TIME DAYLIGHT ROLLS AROUND, WE WILL BE DAWNING MOSTLY SUNNY.

TOMORROW WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH GOOD DEAL OF SUN, AS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHEAST VA BY LATE IN THE DAY. TOMORROW NIGHT LOOKS DRY WITH TEMPS THE SAME OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TONIGHT. FORTUNATELY, THE PROGS HAVE COME MUCH CLOSER TOGETHER NOW WITH THEIR SOLUTIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WEATHER. NO LONGER ARE WE DEALING WITH HUGE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO. THE CANADIAN STILL HAS A SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. AT THIS JUNCTURE, IT APPEARS THAT AT LEAST A PIECE OF THE MIDWEST STORM WILL GET EJECTED QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE FLOW. HOWEVER, WITH THE UPPER FLOW BEING FAIRLY FLAT, THAT FEATURE IS LIKELY TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, ONCE YOU GET TO ABOUT THE LATITUDE OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, THEN IT DOES GET A BIT MORE DICEY.

A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE, INSTEAD OF PICKING UP THAT EASTWARD MOVING SYSTEM, WILL INSTEAD ACT AS A KICKER AND A SUPPRESSOR. ALTHOUGH THE AIR WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE TIME THIS WEEKEND, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THE NORTHERN BRANCH VORT MAX ENDS UP BEING POTENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE A SNOW SHOWER...OR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES.

MONDAY WILL PROBABLY BE DRY, THEN THERE COULD BE ANOTHER CLOSE CALL WITH A WEAK SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT.

 

 

GETTING COOLER, BUT NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL

TWO MONTHS OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER ARE NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS. LOOKING BACK AT JANUARY, WE FIND THAT TEMPS RAN 4.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGHEST TEMP OF THE MONTH WAS 62 ON THE 7TH, AND THE LOWEST TEMP WAS 13 ON THE 4TH. PRECIP WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH 3.23", AND WE ENDED UP WITH 4.3" OF SNOW. GOING BACK TO DECEMBER 1ST, TEMPS ARE RUNNING 5.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO FEBRUARY, NORMAL TEMPS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STARTING THEIR SLOW UPHILL CLIMB, AND THEN WILL ACCELERATE UPWARD IN MARCH. TODAY CERTAINLY ENDED UP BEING ANOTHER "BLOWTORCH" DAY, BUT READINGS WILL TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT STILL ON THE MILD SIDE OF THE CURVE.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR COLD SHOTS TO COME DOWN OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER, UNLESS WE DEVELOP SOME NOTICEABLE AND LONG-LASTING BLOCKING OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES, ANY COLD SNAPS ARE LIKELY TO BE TRANSIENT...AS THEY HAVE BEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER. THE NEW EURO WEEKLIES COME OUT TOMORROW EVENING , AND THAT WILL GIVE US A LOOK OUT TO THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.

AS FOR THE SHORTER TERM, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, TEMPORARILY STALLING OUT TO OUR SOUTH IN VA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD IN THE FLOW WILL SPAWN A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL THEN RUN QUICKLY EASTWARD AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FROM AROUND THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON SOUTHWARD. THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY AFFECT MUCH OF MD, A GOOD CHUNK OF DE, AND SOUTHERNMOST NJ. THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM NORTH OF THAT ZONE FOR 20 OR 30 MILES, AND SO WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS LATER TONIGHT.

 

AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY, DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST, LEADING TO SOME SUN...ANYTIME NORTH OF THE CITY, AND A RETURN OF SUN FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. HIGHPRESSURE NOSING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THEN A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON FRIDAY. ONCE WE GET TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND EURO, AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE OVERALL SCENARIO. SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A DISTINCT SPLIT FLOW SITUATION, THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE A LOT OF TROUBLE RESOLVING THESE PATTERNS. THE EURO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING IT DRY HERE THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE STAY SLOW AND SUPPRESSED. THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE 9 OUT OF 12 MEMBERS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE EURO, AND ONLY 3 MEMBERS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN. SO, AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE LIKE LEANING MUCH MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE EURO. WE OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT FOR NOW, WE ARE FORECASTING A DRY WEEKEND HERE.

 

Forecast Discussion Page 2:

Severe Weather Potential Through Forecast P