GETTING COOLER, BUT NOWHERE NEAR NORMAL

TWO MONTHS OF METEOROLOGICAL WINTER ARE NOW IN THE RECORD BOOKS. LOOKING BACK AT JANUARY, WE FIND THAT TEMPS RAN 4.6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE HIGHEST TEMP OF THE MONTH WAS 62 ON THE 7TH, AND THE LOWEST TEMP WAS 13 ON THE 4TH. PRECIP WAS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH 3.23", AND WE ENDED UP WITH 4.3" OF SNOW. GOING BACK TO DECEMBER 1ST, TEMPS ARE RUNNING 5.2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

AS WE HEAD INTO FEBRUARY, NORMAL TEMPS WILL OBVIOUSLY BE STARTING THEIR SLOW UPHILL CLIMB, AND THEN WILL ACCELERATE UPWARD IN MARCH. TODAY CERTAINLY ENDED UP BEING ANOTHER "BLOWTORCH" DAY, BUT READINGS WILL TREND BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND...BUT STILL ON THE MILD SIDE OF THE CURVE.

OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS, IT DOES APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR COLD SHOTS TO COME DOWN OUT OF EASTERN CANADA. HOWEVER, UNLESS WE DEVELOP SOME NOTICEABLE AND LONG-LASTING BLOCKING OVER THE HIGH LATITUDES, ANY COLD SNAPS ARE LIKELY TO BE TRANSIENT...AS THEY HAVE BEEN SO FAR THIS WINTER. THE NEW EURO WEEKLIES COME OUT TOMORROW EVENING , AND THAT WILL GIVE US A LOOK OUT TO THE BEGINNING OF MARCH.

AS FOR THE SHORTER TERM, A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, TEMPORARILY STALLING OUT TO OUR SOUTH IN VA. AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EASTWARD IN THE FLOW WILL SPAWN A WEAK SURFACE WAVE ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL THEN RUN QUICKLY EASTWARD AND OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TOMORROW. THE RESULT WILL BE A PERIOD OF RAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FROM AROUND THE MASON-DIXON LINE ON SOUTHWARD. THE RAIN WILL PROBABLY AFFECT MUCH OF MD, A GOOD CHUNK OF DE, AND SOUTHERNMOST NJ. THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM NORTH OF THAT ZONE FOR 20 OR 30 MILES, AND SO WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW THINGS PROGRESS LATER TONIGHT.

 

AFTER THIS FEATURE MOVES AWAY, DRIER AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST, LEADING TO SOME SUN...ANYTIME NORTH OF THE CITY, AND A RETURN OF SUN FOR AREAS FARTHER SOUTH. HIGHPRESSURE NOSING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THEN A GOOD DEAL OF SUN ON FRIDAY. ONCE WE GET TO SATURDAY AND BEYOND, THERE IS A HUGE DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS, ESPECIALLY THE GFS AND EURO, AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE THE OVERALL SCENARIO. SINCE WE ARE DEALING WITH A DISTINCT SPLIT FLOW SITUATION, THE MODELS OFTEN HAVE A LOT OF TROUBLE RESOLVING THESE PATTERNS. THE EURO HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN KEEPING IT DRY HERE THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT SYSTEM AND ITS MOISTURE STAY SLOW AND SUPPRESSED. THE GFS ENSEMBLES HAVE 9 OUT OF 12 MEMBERS LOOKING MORE LIKE THE EURO, AND ONLY 3 MEMBERS SIMILAR TO THE OPERATIONAL RUN. SO, AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE LIKE LEANING MUCH MORE HEAVILY TOWARD THE EURO. WE OBVIOUSLY HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT FOR NOW, WE ARE FORECASTING A DRY WEEKEND HERE.

 

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