50 & CONFETTI FLYING TOMORROW. FLAKES FLYING WEDNESDAY.

THE THREE MONTHS, OR 1/4 OF THE YEAR, WITH THE SHORTEST DAYS AND THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DAYLIGHT IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS SOLAR WINTER. THIS PERIOD RUNS FROM EARLY NOVEMBER TO EARLY FEBRUARY, AND IS CENTERED ON THE WINTER SOLSTICE IN LATE DECEMBER. SOLAR WINTER IS NOW ENDING, AND WE ARE HEADING INTO THE NEXT THREE MONTH PERIOD CALLED SOLAR SPRING, OR THE QUARTER OF THE YEAR WITH THE MOST RAPID GAIN IN DAYLIGHT AND SOLAR STRENGTH. DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF SOLAR SPRING, WE ARE ALSO ENTERING A TIME OF THE YEAR WHEN SOME OF THE BIGGEST SNOWSTORMS IN HISTORY HAVE OCCURRED. FEBRUARY 6TH AND 7TH IS THE ANNIVERSARY OF THE FAMOUS BLIZZARD OF '78 THAT DUMPED AS MUCH AS 40-50 INCHES OF SNOW ON PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THE BLIZZARD OF '83 OCCURRED ON FEBRUARY 11TH. YOU CAN ADD A NUMBER OF OTHER STORMS TO THAT LIST. EARLY TO MID-FEBRUARY IS A TIME WHEN WARMING BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD MORE NOTICEABLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES, WHILE IT REMAINS VERY COLD WAY UP NORTH IN MOST OF CANADA. THAT, IN TURN, GENERALLY TIGHTENS UP THE NORTH-SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENTS, WHICH IS ONE OF THE INGREDIENTS YOU LIKE TO SEE FOR POTENT STORMS. CLIMATOLOGICALLY, THE OCEANS USUALLY REACH THEIR COLDEST LEVELS LATER THIS MONTH, MAKING IT HARDER FOR STORMS TO BE EITHER ALL RAIN OR FOR SNOW TO CHANGE TO RAIN. OF COURSE, THIS IS ALL IN A "NORMAL" SITUATION, WHICH THIS WINTER HAS DEFINITELY NOT BEEN.

IN LOOKING OVER THE LONGER RANGE GUIDANCE FROM SOME OF THE MODELS, THERE IS CERTAINLY A SPLIT BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE EURO AS TO HOW THINGS EVOLVE AFTER THIS WEEKEND. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH FOR TRENDS THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE, TODAY WAS ANOTHER ONE OF THOSE OVER-ACHIEVING DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPS, GIVEN THE BARE GROUND, SUNSHINE, AND WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW. AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT TONIGHT, WE'VE GOT ANOTHER MILD DAY IN STORE TOMORROW, SINCE WE WILL BE AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE CURRENT TIMING OF THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WE DECIDED TO TWEAK TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES FROM ABOUT I-78 SOUTHWARD.  THAT ZONE OF TEMPS BEING SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN PROGGED COULD EXTEND A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN THAT.

BY WEDNESDAY, CHILLIER, BUT NOT TERRIBLY COLD, AIR WILL BE IN PLACE. TO SOME DEGREE OR ANOTHER, THE MODELS ALL HAVE SOME SORT OF WEAK WAVE PUSHING EASTWARD IN THE FLOW. THAT FEATURE IS LIKELY TO CAUSE CLOUDS HERE, AND PROBABLY A TOUCH OF PRECIP. THE 850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES WOULD SUGGEST MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW, BUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS MAY BE JUST HIGH ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN DROPS AS WELL. THE PRECIP SEEMS TO BE CENTERED ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, PARTS OF THE AREA PICK UP A COATING OF SNOW ON NON-PAVED SURFACES FOLLOWING THAT MINOR EVENT, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK DRY WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS AGAIN...BUT IT PROBABLY WON'T GET QUITE AS MILD AS IT IS NOW.

OVER THE WEEKEND, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ARRIVE. THE EURO HAS HIGHLIGHTED THAT FOR QUITE SOME TIME NOW. THE CHALLENGES THIS WEEKEND WILL BE (1) TIMING THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDEST AIR, (2) DETERMINING HOW COLD IT IS EVENTUALLY GOING TO GET, AND (3) IF THE COLD AIR WILL BE PRECEDED BY OR ACCOMPANIED BY ANY PRECIP. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN LATER REPORTS.