WINTER COMES OUT OF HIBERNATION

FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS WINTER, WE ARE ACTUALLY DEALING WITH MULTIPLE EVENTS IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. FIRST OF ALL, TONIGHT'S CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING US A MINIMAL AMOUNT OF SNOW. IN A NORMAL WINTER, BY THE THIRD WEEKEND OF JANUARY, THIS WOULD ALMOST BE A JOKE. HOWEVER, GIVEN HOW LITTLE HAS HAPPENED SO FAR THIS SEASON, IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT OUR AREA WILL PICK UP A COATING TO AN INCH OF SNOW. THE BEST CHANCE OF THE INCH WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WELL NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY, AS WELL AS AREAS FARTHER EAST...INTO CT AND PERHAPS LONG ISLAND...WHERE THERE WILL BE A LAST MINUTE INJECTION OF SOME MOISTURE FROM OFF OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AT SOME POINT FARTHER EAST, THE COATING TO 1" WILL TRANSITION INTO A 1-2" ZONE. EASTERN LONG ISLAND IS TRICKY, AS WE MAY BE DEALING WITH BOUNDARY LAYER ISSUES THERE WITH THE FLOW OFF OF THE WATER. IN THE THE FAR SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE COVERAGE AREA, WE EXPECT NO MORE THAN A SKIFF OF SNOW, AND PERHAPS JUST SOME FLURRIES. IN THE CITY, WE EXPECT ANY SNOW TO BE OVER WITH BY 2 OR 3 A.M...EARLIER FARTHER WEST, AND A BIT LATER FARTHER EAST.

TOMORROW WILL BE A BRISK, COLD, AND DRY DAY WITH SOME SUN AS WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE AIR MASS OVER US LOOKS GENUINELY COLD TOMORROW, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE ARE STILL A TAD TOO HIGH WITH OUR MAX TEMPS. THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL COME RIGHT ALONG QUICKLY TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WILL EXIT THE SCENE QUICKLY ON SATURDAY. IN ANY GIVEN SPOT, THERE PROBABLY WON'T BE MUCH MORE THAN A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF REALLY GOOD PRECIP. THE VERTICAL VELOCITY GUIDANCE ON THE MODELS SHOWS THAT. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL BE VERY FLAT, AND THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK. IT WILL OPERATE MAINLY ON WARM ADVECTION AS WELL AS SOME UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WITH BEING IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A JET STREAK GOING BY TO OUR NORTH. SO, THE FASTER BUT WEAKER SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM WILL MEAN LESS WARMING FARTHER NORTH. THAT, IN TURN, MEANS THAT OUR ICE/SNOW LINE AND OUR RAIN/ICE LINE WILL HAVE TO SHIFT FARTHER SOUTHWARD ON THE MAPS...AS WELL AS ACCUMULATIONS.

 

 

TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE HELD DOWN BY THE EASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FLOW. WE DO EXPECT SOME DRYING AND MAYBE EVEN PARTIAL CLEARING BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE SATURDAY NIGHT, AND SO WE WILL PROBABLY START WITH SOME SUN ON SUNDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE WIND FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN, AND IT MAY EVEN START TO DRIZZLE BY EVENING. MONDAY DEFINITELY LOOKS MILDER, BUT ALSO RATHER WET.

SINCE THIS FEATURE IS COMING RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF A FRESH, COLD AIR MASS TOMORROW, WE DEFINITELY LIKE THE COLDER SOLUTION...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS. WE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS DOWN A BIT FOR SATURDAY, AND WE STILL MAY NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE REACH OUR MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY...BUT AFTER THE PRECIP ENDS. SPEAKING OF THAT ENDING TIME, WE NOW THINK THAT IT WILL PRETTY MUCH BE OVER IN THE CITY BY MID-AFTERNOON. FORTUNATELY, WE STILL HAVE ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO TO MAKE SOME FINE TUNE ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR SNOWFALL/PRECIP MAP. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT FOLKS HEADING OUT SATURDAY MORNING WILL ENCOUNTER SOME SLICK TRAVEL AROUND THE REGION.