SIGNS OF A PATTERN CHANGE

IF YOU LOOK AT WHAT'S BEEN HAPPENING OVER THE PAST MONTH AND A HALF...BASICALLY THROUGH THE LATE FALL AND SO FAR THIS EARLY WINTER...THE MILD OR WARM DAYS HAVE BEEN FAR OUTNUMBERING THE COLD DAYS. IN FACT, UP UNTIL LAST WEEK, WHEN WE ACTUALLY HAD ABOUT A THREE DAY SHOT OF COLD WEATHER, THE TREND WAS FOR COLD SNAPS TO LAST A DAY OR DAY AND A HALF AT MOST. THERE IS STILL NO SIGN OF ANY MAJOR BLOCKING SETTING UP IN THE HIGH LATITUDES. THERE IS ALSO NO INDICATION THAT THE NAO WANTS TO TREND NEGATIVE ANYTIME SOON, ALTHOUGH IT COULD END UP CLOSER TO NEUTRAL.

AFTER ANOTHER FEW DAYS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS HERE, IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TURN COLDER AT THE END OF THIS WEEK, AND THEN STAY AT LEAST MODERATELY COLD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. IN FACT, IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF WEEKS AND PERHAPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH, THE COLD DAYS WILL TEND TO OUTNUMBER THE MILD DAYS...EVEN AS THE PATTERN STILL REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANSIENT.

EVEN IN THIS RATHER MILD PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY FRIDAY, THERE ARE SOME CHALLENGES. WE ENDED UP TRIMMING TEMPS BACK A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY, GIVEN THE STABLE LOOK TO THE ATMOSPHERE THAT DAY AND THE ARRIVAL OF SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS. WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED THAT WE ARE TOO HIGH WITH OUR MAX TEMP FORECAST ON THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THE LOW DOES INDEED TRACK TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST, KEEPING OUR WINDS FROM SWINGING AROUND INTO A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE TWO SEPARATE LOWS ON THE MAP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER, THE ONE THAT IS FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST IS LIKELY TO BE THE MORE DOMINATE SYSTEM IN OUR WEATHER. SO, FOR NOW, WE HAVE TRIMMED NUMBERS BACK A BIT FOR THURSDAY, AND IT COULD END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN THAT. WE DON'T WANT TO ADJUST READINGS DOWN TOO FAR, JUST IN CASE WE DO END UP GETTING BURNED IN THE OTHER DIRECTION.

ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN, WE NUDGED FRIDAY'S HIGH UP A TAD, SINCE WE WILL BE AHEAD OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THAT DAY...AT LEAST IN THE MORNING...AND TEMPS ALMOST ALWAYS OVER-ACHIEVE AHEAD OF THOSE TYPE OF BOUNDARIES AS THINGS GET WELL MIXED.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, TEMPS TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY CLOUDS, THEN TOMORROW IS DEFINITELY LOOKING MILD FOR THE MIDDLE OF JANUARY, THANKS TO THE RETURN OF SUNSHINE AND A NICE DOWNSLOPING BREEZE. IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY UP THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR 2 A.M. WHILE WE DO HAVE TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH, IT JUST SEEMS TOO DRY FOR THAT TO HAPPEN. ANY STEADY PRECIP IS LIKELY TO STRETCH FROM DCA TO DOVER, DE TO CAPE MAY, NJ.

DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE TOMORROW, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY. THEN, RAIN FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE ON-AND-OFF INTO THURSDAY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WET BULBING TO OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP, NORTH OF A CERTAIN POINT. IF THAT DOES INDEED OCCUR, THEN THERE COULD BE SOME WET SNOW FOR A TIME AS FAR SOUTH AS THE POCONOS, NORTHERN NJ, THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY, AND INTERIOR CT. THAT IS SOMETHING WE WILL HAVE TO EXAMINE MORE CAREFULLY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

FINALLY, WE ARE COVERING FOR RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE ARCTIC FRONT THE UPPER TROF ON FRIDAY. THE GFS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THERE IS SOMETHING A LITTLE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THAT. AGAIN, THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WARRANTS FURTHER REVIEW.