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01/30/2012

MAJOR MIDWEEK WARM-UP

AFTER A WEEKEND OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS, TODAY IS TURNING OUT TO BE THE ONE LONE "COLD" DAY OF THIS WORK WEEK. THE CORE OF THE CHILLIEST AIR HAS JUST MOVED OVERHEAD, AND ALREADY BY THIS EVENING, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP AGAIN.

THE WEATHER WORD HERE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS....BLOWTORCH! THE BATTLE CRY FOR THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD IN OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN "TAKE 'EM UP!". WE DEFINITELY HAVE TRENDED UPWARD ON OUR MAX AND MIN TEMPS HERE TOMORROW, TOMORROW NIGHT, AND WEDNESDAY FROM WHAT WE HAD OUT NOT TOO LONG AGO. HOPEFULLY, OUR TEMPS ARE NOW HIGH ENOUGH. THE MUCH MILDER AIR WILL BEGIN SURGING IN TOMORROW, BUT THE WARMEST AREAS WILL END UP BEING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WHERE THAT WARM ADVECTION WILL HAVE BEGUN EARLIER. TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE HELD UP BY SOME CLOUDS AND A SOUTHWEST BREEZE. WEDNESDAY DOES APPEAR TO BE OUR WARMEST PERIOD OF THIS STRETCH, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO OVER-ACHIEVE. AT THE SAME TIME, WE DO EXPECT SOME MOISTURE TO BE AROUND ON WEDNESDAY IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS, AND PERHAPS A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. IF THE TIMING OF THE BEST MOISTURE ENDS UP BEING DURING THE MIDDAY OR THE DAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN THAT WOULD BE THE ONE LONE FACTOR THAT COULD CUT BACK A BIT ON MAX TEMPS THAT DAY. SO, AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE FEEL THAT WE ARE PRETTY CLOSE WITH OUR FORECAST HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL FLEXIBLE FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENT, IF NECESSARY.

READINGS WILL TREND BACK DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT LATER THIS WEEK, BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY STANDARDS. THAT WILL PROBABLY BE THE CASE THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WELL.

IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT, THINGS LOOK RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD IN THE SHORTER TERM, BUT THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST ONCE WE GET TO ABOUT THURSDAY AND BEYOND. DURING TONIGHT, A VERY WELL-DEFINED WARM ADVECTION ZONE WILL SET UP FROM NORTHERNMOST PA AND ESPECIALLY UPSTATE NY OVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE IMPRESSIVE OVERRUNNING ZONE THAT DOES SET UP WILL GENERATE A PERIOD OF SNOW NORTH OF A CERTAIN POINT. JUST WHERE THAT LINE SETS UP BETWEEN A SKIFF OF SNOW AND NOTHING AT ALL IS STILL SOMEWHAT UP FOR GRABS.

TOMORROW LOOKS DRY AS THAT WARM ADVECTION ZONE SHIFTS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST, AND TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE DRY AS WELL. WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WEAK COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY, AND SLIGHT HEIGHT FALLS FROM AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE, WE DO FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE A PASSING SHOWER OR TWO. QUICKLY FOLLOWING THAT FRONTAL PASSAGE, A SURFACE WAVE IS LIKELY TO HEAD QUICKLY EASTWARD IN THE FLOW ON THURSDAY, IN RESPONSE TO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE ALOFT. JUST LOOKING AT THE 500 MB CHARTS FOR THAT DAY, YOU WOULD THINK THAT THE PRECIP WOULD END UP BEING FARTHER NORTH THAN WHERE THE QPF IS FORECAST. FOR NOW, WE ARE PROBABLY OK WITH OUR FORECAST, BUT THERE IS SOME WIGGLE ROOM FOR THINGS TO CHANGE A BIT.

FRIDAY WILL BE DRY, THEN WE'VE GOT A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...DETAILS TO FOLLOW IN LATER DISCUSSIONS.

 

THE PRECIP WILL BE RUNNING INTO VERY DRY AIR FOR ONE, AND IT IS ALSO MOVING INTO A NOTICEABLY RISING HEIGHT FIELD. WITH THE THICKNESS LINES TILTED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST, THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SNOW PROBABLY WON'T BE A PERFECT WEST-EAST LINE, BUT RATHER WILL BE TILTED AT LEAST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT. WE FEEL THAT THE BEST CHANCE OF A COATING OF SNOW TONIGHT IS NORTH OF A LONE FROM BRADFORD, SUSQUEHANNA, AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN PA OVER TO ABOUT I-84 IN THE HUDSON VALLEY AND THEN NORTH OF THE MERRITT PARKWAY IN EASTERN CT. HOWEVER, THAT'S NOT TO SAY THAT THERE CAN'T BE A SNOW SHOWER 20 OR 30 MILES SOUTH OF THERE. WE'LL JUST HAVE TO WATCH RADARS AND SURFACE OBS CAREFULLY THIS EVENING BEFORE MAKING A FINAL JUDGMENT CALL.

 

 

Forecast Discussion Page 2:

Severe Weather Potential Through Forecast Period:

 

Posted by Lee Goldberg on January 30, 2012 | Permalink

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