« 10 DAYS INTO JANUARY & TEMPS ARE 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE | Main | WINTER COMES OUT OF HIBERNATION »

01/11/2012

BUMPY RIDE NEXT 48 HOURS. DESTINATION: BIG CHILL.

WE ENDED UP WITH ANOTHER BONUS DAY WEATHER TODAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPS. THIS IS ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS WHERE IT CLOUDS UP AND STARTS TO PRECIP IN A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...NOT ONE OF THOSE CASES WHERE THE CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN WAY AHEAD OF THE PRECIP SHIELD. THAT ALLOWED TEMPS TO OVER-ACHIEVE A BIT TODAY FROM WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY.

IN ANY CASE, THE RAIN CONTINUES TO MARCH NORTHEASTWARD, AND WE ARE IN STORE FOR A GOOD SOAKING TONIGHT. IT STILL APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF INTENSE UPWARD MOTION. THAT WILL RESULT IN SOME DOWNPOURS, AND PERHAPS ENOUGH RAIN TO CAUSE SOME MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS PONDING OF WATER ON STREETS AND HIGHWAYS. YESTERDAY WE THOUGHT THAT THERE COULD BE SOME THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WITH THIS SYSTEM AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXTREME SOUTH JERSEY. THAT STILL SEEMS REASONABLE, AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF A FLASH OF LIGHTNING AND A RUMBLE OF THUNDER WAS REPORTED ALL THE WAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA AND CENTRAL OR EVEN NORTHERN NJ., AND THE NYC AREA.

AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS FEATURE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW, WE ARE LOOKING AT A GENERAL 0.75" TO 1.25", WITH A FEW SPOTS PICKING UP OVER 1.5". GIVEN HOW MILD IT GOT TODAY, AND THE FACT THAT THE PRIMARY LOW IS CENTERED WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...BACK NEAR EVANSVILLE, IN AS OF 2 P.M....WE FEEL THAT ANY OCCURRENCE OF SLEET AND WET SNOW AT THE ONSET OF THE PRECIP DUE TO WET BULBING WILL BE PRETTY MINIMAL AND INSIGNIFICANT SOUTH OF A LINE FROM INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE MIDDLE HUDSON VALLEY TO NORTHERN PA. THE FARTHER NORTH YOU GO INTO NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND, THE MORE SNOW AND ICE PROBLEMS THIS SYSTEM WILL CAUSE.

GOING BACK TO BACK TO THE SURFACE WEATHER MAP, IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE PRIMARY LOW WILL TRACK TO A POSITION NEAR CLEVELAND, OH BY 12Z TOMORROW MORNING, WITH A SECONDARY OR TRIPLE POINT LOW COMING UP INTO SOUTHEASTERN PA. BY EVENING, THE MAIN LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO, WITH THE OTHER LOW JUST NORTHEAST OF BOSTON. ONCE THAT EASTERN LOW CENTER PASSES, WE WILL GET INTO A SUBSIDENCE ZONE BEHIND IT WITH WINDS SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHWEST, AND CLOUDS ATTEMPTING TO BREAK FOR SOME SUN. THAT WILL LEAD TO A VERY MILD DAY HERE TOMORROW. WE HAVE TAKEN TEMPS UP FOR TOMORROW FROM WHAT WE HAD OUT YESTERDAY. HOPEFULLY, WE ARE HIGH ENOUGH NOW!

THAT RELATIVE BREAK IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS WILL CARRY OVER INTO EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT. THEN, WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ARCTIC FRONT LATE AT NIGHT, ALONG WITH CRASHING HEIGHTS, RAIN SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BREAK OUT. TEMPS TOMORROW NIGHT WILL STAY MILD, AND THAT WILL BE THE CASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CROSS THE REGION, MUCH, MUCH COLDER AIR WILL RUSH INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND TEMPS WILL GO NOWHERE BUT DOWN. THIS SETUP WILL CAUSE A 1-3" STRIPE OF SNOW BACK IN THE  APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS, WITH AS MUCH AS 3-6" IN THE HIGH GROUND FROM THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS INTO NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PA AS WELL AS UPSTATE NY. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST, SNOW WILL DWINDLE. HOWEVER, THERE STILL COULD BE A COATING ON GRASS NOT TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

THE BIG TICKET ITEM ABOUT FRIDAY WILL BE THE STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THE FALLING TEMPS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A VERY UNSTABLE TYPE OF COLD, AND SO THE ACTUAL LOW TEMPS HERE ON FRIDAY NIGHT WON'T BE ALL THAT COLD FOR JANUARY STANDARDS.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS COLD, AND MAINLY DRY. HOWEVER, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT CLIPPER SYSTEM PROGGED TO TRACK TO OUR SOUTH ON SUNDAY. EVEN COLDER AIR BLASTS IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on January 11, 2012 | Permalink

TrackBack

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.typepad.com/services/trackback/6a00e555030a2c88340162ff685129970d

Listed below are links to weblogs that reference BUMPY RIDE NEXT 48 HOURS. DESTINATION: BIG CHILL.:

Comments

Post a comment

Comments are moderated, and will not appear on this weblog until the author has approved them.

If you have a TypeKey or TypePad account, please Sign In.