10 DAYS INTO JANUARY & TEMPS ARE 5 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE

THE DRY, RELATIVELY MLD DAYS JUST KEEP ON COMING! WE ONCE AGAIN ENJOYED A DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WE WERE AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY UP TO OUR NORTH. AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, THIS MILDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST HERE THROUGH THURSDAY AND PROBABLY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THEN, A NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR MASS WILL START MOVING IN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A GENUINELY COLD, BUT NOT EXTREME, WEEKEND.

WITH THE LACK OF BLOCKING, IT APPEARS THAT TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BOUNCE BACK HERE DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. WE DO HAVE SOME TEMP CHALLENGES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...(1) HOW HIGH WILL READINGS GET TOMORROW, GIVEN THE MORE STABLE LOOK TO THE ATMOSPHERE AND THE ARRIVAL OF HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS? (2) HOW MUCH WILL TEMPS DROP DUE TO WET BULBING ONCE THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FINALLY GETS IN? FOR NOW, WE ARE ALLOWING FOR A MINIMAL DROP, FOLLOWED BY RISING TEMPS LATE AT NIGHT. (3) HOW HIGH WILL TEMPS BE ABLE TO GET ON THURSDAY? THAT WILL DEPEND ON WHETHER OR NOT CLOUDS ARE ABLE TO BREAK ONCE THE RAIN ENDS AS THE LOW DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST. ALSO, IT WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH WIND FLOW WE HAVE HERE DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS ON THURSDAY. THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH ON THE WARMTH THAT DAY THAN THE NAM, WITH THE EURO SOMEWHERE IN BETWEEN. (4) HOW HIGH WILL TEMPS SPIKE FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO THE RETURN OF SOME SUN AND A DOWNSLOPING WESTERLY BREEZE, BEFORE STRONG COLD ADVECTION SHUTS DOWN THE TEMP RISE? WE HAVE SEEN THESE SITUATIONS OVER AND OVER AGAIN, AND TEMPS OFTEN FIND A WAY TO GET BRIEFLY HIGHER THAN YOU WOULD EVER THINK, BEFORE THE COLD AIR FINALLY WINS OUT.

IN THE PRECIP DEPARTMENT, WE WILL STAY BONE DRY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, THEN, WE ARE IN STORE FOR A SOAKING RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH RAIN TAPERING OFF AND ENDING THURSDAY MORNING. YESTERDAY WE WERE THINKING THAT 1/2" TO 1" WOULD BE MOST LIKELY. WE ACTUALLY LIKE THE 1" BETTER THAN THE 1/2". THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER WITH THIS SETUP AS FAR NORTH AS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND EXTREME SOUTH JERSEY. WE DO HAVE TO COVER FOR AT LEAST A BRIEF PERIOD OF MIXED RAIN, SLEET, AND WET SNOW...OR EVEN ALL FROZEN PRECIP FOR A TIME, NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. HOWEVER, YOU PROBABLY HAVE TO GO PRETTY FAR NORTH TO GET ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

AFTER A SHORT SPELL OF QUIET WEATHER, WE COULD BE DEALING WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHOWERS, IF NOT A PERIOD OF STEADY RAIN, SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. NOT TOO FAR NORTH AND WEST, THAT PRECIP MAY BE A RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW SCENARIO. WE'LL HAVE MORE ON THAT IN LATER DISCUSSIONS. WE ARE STILL COVERING FOR A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER FRIDAY MORNING, THEN MOST, OR ALL OF THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY.