UNSETTLED LATE WEEK & CLOSE CALL THIS WEEKEND

WE ARE NOW MORE THAN A MONTH PAST THE WINTER SOLSTICE, AND WE HAVE GOTTEN TO THE POINT WHERE THE GAIN IN DAYLIGHT IS NOW NOTICEABLE IN THE EVENINGS. IN THE GRAND SCHEME OF THINGS, THE SUN IS STILL PRETTY WEAK AND THE DAYS ARE SHORT. HOWEVER, PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE, AND MORE NOTICEABLE GAINS ARE ON THE WAY IN THE WEEKS AHEAD. IT WILL TAKE ANOTHER WEEK TO 10 DAYS BEFORE NORMAL TEMPS BEGIN TO START THEIR SLOW CLIMB BACK UPWARD.

HERE IS A BRIEF SUMMARY OF OUR WEATHER SO FAR THIS WINTER...BASICALLY FROM DECEMBER 22ND TO NOW. HIGHEST TEMP 62, LOWEST TEMP 13. DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL +4.4 DEGREES. TOTAL PRECIP 4.42" VS. 3.97" NORMAL. 4.3" OF SNOW HAS FALLEN DURING THIS PERIOD.

AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, THIS MID-WEEK PERIOD WILL FEATURE QUIET, UNEVENTFUL WEATHER WITH NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES MOST OF THE TIME. AS WE SUSPECTED, TODAY ENDED UP BEING QUITE MILD FOR LATE JANUARY, GIVEN THE HIGH LAUNCHING PAD THIS MORNING, SOME SUN, A DOWNSLOPING BREEZE, AND AN AIR MASS IN PLACE THAT DEFINITELY HAS PACIFIC AIR IN THE MIX. A SHORT WAVE TROF CROSSING THE NORTHEAST THIS EVENING WILL USHER IN SLIGHTLY CHILLIER AIR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, TEMPS WILL TREND DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT, BUT READINGS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE DEAD OF WINTER.

MOISTURE WILL RETURN BY THURSDAY...FIRST IN THE FORM OF CLOUDS, AND EVENTUALLY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL APPEARS THAT

OUR WETTEST TIME WILL COME THURSDAY NIGHT INTO PART OF FRIDAY. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING OF THAT RAIN EVENT, BUT RIGHT NOW, SOME SORT OF COMPROMISE IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO GO. WE ARE STILL A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT THE RAIN STARTING OUT AS SOMETHING FROZEN NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY. HOWEVER, IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE DICEY ZONE WILL SET UP PRETTY FAR TO THE NORTH AND WEST. IN THE ADIRONDACKS OF NORTHEASTERN NY STATE AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THIS LATE WEEK EVENT WILL BE MAINLY SNOW.

ONE WAY ORANOTHER, FRIDAY LOOKS MILD.

IT DOES LOOK LIKE A HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THAT MAY BE PRECEDED BY SOME CLOUDS AND EVEN A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER ON SUNDAY, AND IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A SHOT OF NOTICEABLY COLDER AIR LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

JUST HOW HIGH TEMPS GO THAT DAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH IT RAINS, AND WHEN IT BEGINS TO DRY OUT. THE NEXT ISSUE OF CONCERN WE HAVE IS THE HANG BACK, SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE COMING OUT IN THE FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE GFS HAS SOMEWHAT OF A SCARY LOOK, AS IT TRIES TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW FAIRLY FAR NORTHWARD, PERHAPS MESSING UP AT LEAST PART OF SATURDAY'S FORECAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AS WELL AS THE NORTHEAST COAST. THE EURO SUPPRESSES THAT SYSTEM MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, AND PREDICTS A TOTALLY DRY DAY HERE AND OVER MANY AREAS NEARBY ON SATURDAY. AGAIN, TEMPS ON SATURDAY ARE TRICKY, BASED ON WHAT IS GOING TO HAPPEN WITH THAT WAVE. WE ARE ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL EITHER WAY, BUT THE ACTUAL NUMBERS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON A FEW DIFFERENT FACTORS.