WINTER IS A NO SHOW FOR NOW

 

 

  

IS THIS LATE DECEMBER, OR LATE OCTOBER? ASIDE FROM THE GENUINELY COLD DAY THAT WE HAD THIS PAST SUNDAY, THERE REALLY HAS BEEN A LACK OF COLD WEATHER THIS MONTH. IN FACT, THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN EXTENDS BACK THROUGH THIS PAST FALL. WHEN YOU TALLY UP ALL OF THE NUMBERS FROM THE FIRST DAY OF FALL THROUGH YESTERDAY, WE FIND THAT THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE WAS +3.3 DEGREES. OF COURSE, PRECIP WAS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 15.14" VS. 12.42" NORMAL.

TEMPS ON THIS FIRST DAY OF WINTER ARE STILL MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL, AS THERE JUST WASN'T ANY CHILLY AIR BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S "COLD" FRONT THAT BROUGHT SOME RARE DECEMBER T-STORMS. A GOOD INDICATOR AS TO HOW MILD THE AIR MASS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW IN A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS OF THE NORTHEAST. AS OF 2 P.M., THE TEMP IN BRADFORD, PA WAS 41, WHILE IT WAS 45 AT BINGHAMTON AIRPORT AND 46 IN MOUNT POCONO.

AS WE SUSPECTED, TODAY WAS A DRY, TRANQUIL DAY WEATHER WISE, SINCE WE ARE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE SHORT RANGE OF THE FORECAST BASICALLY LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IF ANYTHING , THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW TONIGHT COULD END UP A TAD FARTHER NORTH THAN WE HAD BARGAINED FOR EARLIER. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT A HUGE ADJUSTMENT, BUT THE WAVE COULD END UP 25-50 MILES FARTHER NORTH. THAT WILL MEAN A FEW THINGS IN OUR FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL, WE HAD TO ADD THUNDER TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST FARTHER NORTH THAN WHERE WE ORIGINALLY HAD IT. WE FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER AS FAR NORTH AS THE MASON-DIXON LINE TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF PHILLY AND OVER INTO SOUTH JERSEY. THERE IS A VERY HEALTHY LOOKING LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS AIMED TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATER TONIGHT. THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SOME GUSTY T-STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. THE SECOND FACTOR TO DISCUSS WITH THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE WAVE IS THAT TEMPS TONIGHT WON'T GET QUITE AS LOW AS PERVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO, WE HAD TO TWEAK THE LOWS UP.

 

THE BEST RAIN FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 A.M. LINGERING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL QUICKLY LEAVE THE SCENE TOMORROW MORNING, THEN THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. A NOTICEABLE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL BLOW TOMORROW, AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. AT THIS JUNCTURE, THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING PRETTY TAME WEATHER WISE. SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLIER, THEN READINGS WILL TREND SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH HERE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW WILL STAY SQUASHED TO OUR SOUTH LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE STILL DO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT SITUATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE MINOR NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE LOW WILL MEAN THAT THE ZONE THAT GETS ACCUMULATING SNOW HAD TO BE NUDGED NORTHWARD A TAD. WITH NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE, THE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE GENERATED BY DYNAMIC COOLING DUE TO THE VORT MAX PASSING AND SOME DEEPENING OF THE LOW. THAT MEANS THAT EVEN IN THE ZONE WHERE RAIN DOES CHANGE TO SNOW, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION. E.G., BGM AIRPORT COULD PICK UP 2 OR 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW, BUT DOWNTOWN BINGHAMTON AS WELL AS ELMIRA AND OTHER LOWER ELEVATION PLACES IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MORE THAN A COATING TO 1". AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL FEEL THAT 1/2" TO AN INCH IS MOST LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.25" IN A FEW SPOTS.