STORMS MAY MAKE HOLIDAY TRAVEL TRICKY

WE CONTINUE TO BE IN A POSITIVE NAO, PROGRESSIVE LA NINA PATTERN. THIS SETUP FEATURES NO HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WITH ONLY GLANCING BLOWS AND BRIEF, TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLD WEATHER IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. WE DID SEE EVIDENCE YESTERDAY THAT EVEN IN THIS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN, WE CAN GET A DAY HERE AND THERE THAT IS GENUINELY COLD. THE HIGH TEMP YESTERDAY WAS THE LOWEST DAYTIME MAX WE'VE HAD HERE SINCE FEBRUARY 10TH. OF COURSE, READINGS TRENDED BACK IN THE OTHER DIRECTION TODAY, THANKS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST, AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD FOR DECEMBER MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT WE DO HAVE TO COVER FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IN SPOTS. CHILLIER/COOLER AIR WILL TRICKLE IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY TOMORROW AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF A CERTAIN POINT TOMORROW, WE DO EXPECT JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY IN FOR THERE TO BE SOME SUN. THAT LINE WILL PROBABLY RUN FROM SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN NY STATE DOWN INTO NORTHEAST PA AND OVER TO ABOUT NYC. SOUTH OF THAT LINE, CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HANG IN TOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, AND IT COULD SHOWER HERE AND THERE.

A BUBBLE HIGH WILL PROBABLY BE CENTERED NORTH OF TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER TO WESTERN MA BY TOMORROW EVENING. BY LATER TOMORROW NIGHT, THAT HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, TURNING OUR SURFACE WIND FLOW INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THAT WILL MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS, AND SOME DRIZZLE COULD BREAK OUT. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT, WHICH WILL HAVE STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. THAT MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF RAIN. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, THAT RAIN COULD FREEZE ON SOME SURFACES FROM PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN PA TO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND ON NORTHWARD.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WE DO EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS PROBABLY WON'T BE ANY HIGHER THAN 1/4" TO 1/3".

BEHIND THAT FEATURE, DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY DAY HERE ON THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY MILD, AND SO WE ARE PREDICTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL RACE ALONG IN THE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PERHAPS BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING ALONG IN THE FLOW. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING, SPEED, AND INTENSITY OF THAT SYSTEM. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP OPTIONS OPEN. IN THE PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR AWHILE, ODDS WOULD FAVOR PROGRESSION AND LIMITED COLD AIR, BUT THERE MAY JUST ENOUGH AVAILABLE FOR SOME WET SNOW N/W CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.