NO WHITE CHRISTMAS, BUT MAYBE A FLURRY FOR CHRISTMAS DINNER

'TWAS THE FRIDAY BEFORE CHRISTMAS, AND THE WEATHER IS STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY TAME IN OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY! THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT CAUSED OUR RAIN LAST NIGHT IS NOW LONG GONE. IN ITS WAKE, TODAY WAS A DRY, COOLER DAY WITH GUSTY BREEZES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES SHOWING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. FOR THE MOST PART, WE EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MEANWHILE, A RATHER VIGOROUS LOOKING VORT MAX IS CAUSING SOME SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE ALONG QUICKLY IN THE FLOW TONIGHT, REACHING CENTRAL OR EASTERN PA BY 12Z TOMORROW. THAT SYSTEM WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH GROUND OF THE APPALACHIANS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. IN FACT, THERE COULD EVEN BE A COATING OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AS THE MAX GETS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS, IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND A STRAY FLURRY.

ONCE THAT DISTURBANCE GOES BY TOMORROW MORNING, STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT ALONG WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HERE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS OVER US TOMORROW LOOKS GENUINELY CHILLY...SEASONABLE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS HERE DON'T QUITE GET TO 40.

TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DECENT RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA, TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. OUR FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY, AND EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AROUND, AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TOMORROW.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED, BUT IT MAY BE ABLE TO CAUSE A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER HERE. ONCE AGAIN, WE ARE LOOKING AT A SYSTEM THAT WILL RACE ALONG RAPIDLY. SO, BY MONDAY, IT WILL BE EXITING THE SCENE TO THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY DAY HERE ON MONDAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE THICKNESSES AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD ON MONDAY, THE LOW LEVELS WILL STAY RATHER CHILLY FOR AWHILE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WE DO EXPECT A GUSTY WIND TO BLOW FOR AWHILE ON MONDAY, DUE TO A WELL ALIGNED FLOW, A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE MORNING, AND GOOD DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE THAT WE MADE IN THE FORECAST IN THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO ADD IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY. WELL INLAND, THE PRECIP MAY BE SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN, IF IT BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH. THE EURO AND CANADIAN HAVE HAD THAT SOLUTION FOR AWHILE, AND THE 12Z GFS HAS ALSO COME ON BOARD.

FOLLOWING THAT SYSTEM, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.