Blog or Bust

COLD AIR IS A NO SHOW FOR NEW YEAR'S. HAPPY HEALTHY EVERYONE!

THE SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS THAT WAS OVER US YESTERDAY HAS GOTTEN ERODED AWAY. TEMPS FROM THIS POINT ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2011 AND INTO NEW YEARS DAY WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL. THE ACTUAL GRIDDED NUMBERS ARE FORECASTING ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS HERE TOMORROW AND SUNDAY TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE, BUT ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING TOWARD TOMORROW. THAT MAY HAPPEN, BUT IF CLOUDS HANG IN TOUGH FOR A BIT LONGER TOMORROW BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM, THEN SUNDAY WILL END UP BEING THE MILDER OF THE TWO DAYS THIS WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AS WE CLOSE OUT THIS YEAR AND ENTER INTO 2012, WE WILL BE DEALING WITH TEMPS THAT ARE VERY EASY TO TAKE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR!

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE ON BOARD IN PREDICTING A VERY HEALTHY SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL BE, BY FAR, THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. EVEN THOUGH THAT COLD SNAP WILL BE TRANSIENT LIKE ALL OF THE OTHERS HAVE BEEN, WE EXPECT IT TO LAST A FEW DAYS, RATHER THAN JUST A DAY OR DAY AND A HALF. HOWEVER, WITH THE NAO STILL BEING POSITIVE, AND PROBABLY REMAINING AT LEAST NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE NEXT WEEK, THERE IS NO WAY THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO LOCK IN A PERSISTENTLY COLD WEATHER PATTERN IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. IN FACT, ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER NOTICEABLE MODERATING TREND IS ON THE WAY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JANUARY.

MONDAY IS OUR TRANSITION DAY TO SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER, TUESDAY IS THE MOST HARSH, WHEN YOU COMBINE THE TEMPS AND WIND, AND WEDNESDAY IS LESS HARSH, BUT STILL COLD. IN FACT, WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A MORE STABLE DAY AND A VERY LOW LAUNCHING PAD, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ACTUAL MAX TEMP ON WEDNESDAY ENDS UP BEING THE LOWEST OF THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK, READINGS WILL BE WAY IN THE OTHER DIRECTION, AND WE WILL PROBABLY END UP PLAYING A CATCH-UP GAME WITH TEMPS AS WE GET CLOSER.

AS FOR PRECIP, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS THIS EVENING TO SEE WHERE THE ECHOES GO THAT ARE NOW IN PA. IF WE MISS THE BOAT ON THAT ACTIVITY, WHICH MOST PLACES PROBABLY WILL, THEN WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR IT TO SHOWER. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW, AND IT IS ACTUALLY PROGGED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. SO, IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST AS TIME GOES ON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST WEST OF BUFFALO, NY EARLY TOMORROW, AND WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF BOSTON BY 7 PM. SO, WE EXPECT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS, AND EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AS OUR WINDS SHIFT AROUND INTO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE CLOUDS WILL TRY TO BREAK BY LATE IN THE DAY, IT WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO CLEAR.

AT THIS JUNCTURE, NEW YEARS EVE LOOKS VERY QUIET WEATHER WISE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THAT IS GREAT NEWS FOR THOSE OUT ABOUT ABOUT TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST, OR ALL, OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT IT MAY SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

NO WHITE CHRISTMAS, BUT MAYBE A FLURRY FOR CHRISTMAS DINNER

'TWAS THE FRIDAY BEFORE CHRISTMAS, AND THE WEATHER IS STILL LOOKING RELATIVELY TAME IN OUR PART OF THE COUNTRY! THE FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAVE THAT CAUSED OUR RAIN LAST NIGHT IS NOW LONG GONE. IN ITS WAKE, TODAY WAS A DRY, COOLER DAY WITH GUSTY BREEZES AND MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. CURRENTLY, THERE ARE A FEW SPRINKLES AND FLURRIES SHOWING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. FOR THE MOST PART, WE EXPECT THAT ACTIVITY TO NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS.

MEANWHILE, A RATHER VIGOROUS LOOKING VORT MAX IS CAUSING SOME SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THAT FEATURE WILL MOVE ALONG QUICKLY IN THE FLOW TONIGHT, REACHING CENTRAL OR EASTERN PA BY 12Z TOMORROW. THAT SYSTEM WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGH GROUND OF THE APPALACHIANS AS IT MOVES EASTWARD. IN FACT, THERE COULD EVEN BE A COATING OF SNOW IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. AS THE MAX GETS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS, IT WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAN SOME CLOUDS AND A STRAY FLURRY.

ONCE THAT DISTURBANCE GOES BY TOMORROW MORNING, STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT ALONG WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY SURFACE WIND WILL RESULT IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE HERE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE AIR MASS OVER US TOMORROW LOOKS GENUINELY CHILLY...SEASONABLE...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TEMPS HERE DON'T QUITE GET TO 40.

TOMORROW NIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A DECENT RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA, TEMPS WILL MODERATE A BIT ON SUNDAY. OUR FLOW WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY, AND EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDINESS AROUND, AFTERNOON READINGS WILL BE AT LEAST SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN TOMORROW.

ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THAT FEATURE WILL BE MOISTURE-STARVED, BUT IT MAY BE ABLE TO CAUSE A RAIN OR SNOW SHOWER HERE. ONCE AGAIN, WE ARE LOOKING AT A SYSTEM THAT WILL RACE ALONG RAPIDLY. SO, BY MONDAY, IT WILL BE EXITING THE SCENE TO THE EAST. THE RESULT WILL BE A DRY DAY HERE ON MONDAY WITH AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. WHILE THICKNESSES AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD ON MONDAY, THE LOW LEVELS WILL STAY RATHER CHILLY FOR AWHILE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. MORE IMPORTANTLY, WE DO EXPECT A GUSTY WIND TO BLOW FOR AWHILE ON MONDAY, DUE TO A WELL ALIGNED FLOW, A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE MORNING, AND GOOD DOWNWARD TRANSFER OF MOMENTUM.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE THAT WE MADE IN THE FORECAST IN THE LONGER RANGE WAS TO ADD IN THE CHANCE OF RAIN ARRIVING FOR TUESDAY. WELL INLAND, THE PRECIP MAY BE SOMETHING OTHER THAN RAIN, IF IT BEGINS EARLY ENOUGH. THE EURO AND CANADIAN HAVE HAD THAT SOLUTION FOR AWHILE, AND THE 12Z GFS HAS ALSO COME ON BOARD.

FOLLOWING THAT SYSTEM, DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY.

WINTER IS A NO SHOW FOR NOW

 

 

  

IS THIS LATE DECEMBER, OR LATE OCTOBER? ASIDE FROM THE GENUINELY COLD DAY THAT WE HAD THIS PAST SUNDAY, THERE REALLY HAS BEEN A LACK OF COLD WEATHER THIS MONTH. IN FACT, THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN EXTENDS BACK THROUGH THIS PAST FALL. WHEN YOU TALLY UP ALL OF THE NUMBERS FROM THE FIRST DAY OF FALL THROUGH YESTERDAY, WE FIND THAT THE TEMPERATURE DEPARTURE WAS +3.3 DEGREES. OF COURSE, PRECIP WAS CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH 15.14" VS. 12.42" NORMAL.

TEMPS ON THIS FIRST DAY OF WINTER ARE STILL MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL, AS THERE JUST WASN'T ANY CHILLY AIR BEHIND LAST NIGHT'S "COLD" FRONT THAT BROUGHT SOME RARE DECEMBER T-STORMS. A GOOD INDICATOR AS TO HOW MILD THE AIR MASS IS WHAT IS HAPPENING RIGHT NOW IN A FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS OF THE NORTHEAST. AS OF 2 P.M., THE TEMP IN BRADFORD, PA WAS 41, WHILE IT WAS 45 AT BINGHAMTON AIRPORT AND 46 IN MOUNT POCONO.

AS WE SUSPECTED, TODAY WAS A DRY, TRANQUIL DAY WEATHER WISE, SINCE WE ARE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS. THE SHORT RANGE OF THE FORECAST BASICALLY LOOKS RIGHT ON TARGET FROM WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DISCUSSING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. IF ANYTHING , THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADING QUICKLY NORTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW TONIGHT COULD END UP A TAD FARTHER NORTH THAN WE HAD BARGAINED FOR EARLIER. WE ARE NOT TALKING ABOUT A HUGE ADJUSTMENT, BUT THE WAVE COULD END UP 25-50 MILES FARTHER NORTH. THAT WILL MEAN A FEW THINGS IN OUR FORECASTS. FIRST OF ALL, WE HAD TO ADD THUNDER TO TONIGHT'S FORECAST FARTHER NORTH THAN WHERE WE ORIGINALLY HAD IT. WE FEEL THAT THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHTNING AND THUNDER AS FAR NORTH AS THE MASON-DIXON LINE TO NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF PHILLY AND OVER INTO SOUTH JERSEY. THERE IS A VERY HEALTHY LOOKING LOW LEVEL JET THAT IS AIMED TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATER TONIGHT. THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SOME GUSTY T-STORMS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK. THE SECOND FACTOR TO DISCUSS WITH THE SLIGHTLY FARTHER NORTH TRACK OF THE WAVE IS THAT TEMPS TONIGHT WON'T GET QUITE AS LOW AS PERVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO, WE HAD TO TWEAK THE LOWS UP.

 

THE BEST RAIN FROM THIS LOW WILL BE CONCENTRATED IN ABOUT A 6 HOUR PERIOD FROM MIDNIGHT TO 6 A.M. LINGERING RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL QUICKLY LEAVE THE SCENE TOMORROW MORNING, THEN THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WILL BE DRY WITH MORE CLOUDS THAN SUN. A NOTICEABLE NORTHWEST BREEZE WILL BLOW TOMORROW, AND TEMPS WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY...BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE DECEMBER. AT THIS JUNCTURE, THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING PRETTY TAME WEATHER WISE. SATURDAY WILL BE CHILLIER, THEN READINGS WILL TREND SOMEWHAT HIGHER ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF ANOTHER POTENT NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE THAT WILL PASS THROUGH HERE SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY MONDAY. RAIN FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH LOW WILL STAY SQUASHED TO OUR SOUTH LATER SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, ALTHOUGH WE STILL DO HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THAT SITUATION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

THE MINOR NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE LOW WILL MEAN THAT THE ZONE THAT GETS ACCUMULATING SNOW HAD TO BE NUDGED NORTHWARD A TAD. WITH NO COLD AIR ANYWHERE, THE SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE GENERATED BY DYNAMIC COOLING DUE TO THE VORT MAX PASSING AND SOME DEEPENING OF THE LOW. THAT MEANS THAT EVEN IN THE ZONE WHERE RAIN DOES CHANGE TO SNOW, ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION. E.G., BGM AIRPORT COULD PICK UP 2 OR 3 INCHES OF WET SNOW, BUT DOWNTOWN BINGHAMTON AS WELL AS ELMIRA AND OTHER LOWER ELEVATION PLACES IN THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY MAY BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MORE THAN A COATING TO 1". AS FOR RAINFALL TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE STILL FEEL THAT 1/2" TO AN INCH IS MOST LIKELY, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1.25" IN A FEW SPOTS.

STORMS MAY MAKE HOLIDAY TRAVEL TRICKY

WE CONTINUE TO BE IN A POSITIVE NAO, PROGRESSIVE LA NINA PATTERN. THIS SETUP FEATURES NO HIGH LATITUDE BLOCKING WITH ONLY GLANCING BLOWS AND BRIEF, TRANSIENT SHOTS OF COLD WEATHER IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. WE DID SEE EVIDENCE YESTERDAY THAT EVEN IN THIS GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN, WE CAN GET A DAY HERE AND THERE THAT IS GENUINELY COLD. THE HIGH TEMP YESTERDAY WAS THE LOWEST DAYTIME MAX WE'VE HAD HERE SINCE FEBRUARY 10TH. OF COURSE, READINGS TRENDED BACK IN THE OTHER DIRECTION TODAY, THANKS TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE TOP SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST, AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.

IT WILL STAY RELATIVELY MILD FOR DECEMBER MUCH OF TONIGHT AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE ISN'T A WHOLE LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH, BUT WE DO HAVE TO COVER FOR A LIGHT SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IN SPOTS. CHILLIER/COOLER AIR WILL TRICKLE IN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY TOMORROW AS IT CONTINUES TO SINK A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHWARD. NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF A CERTAIN POINT TOMORROW, WE DO EXPECT JUST ENOUGH DRY AIR TO WORK ITS WAY IN FOR THERE TO BE SOME SUN. THAT LINE WILL PROBABLY RUN FROM SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN NY STATE DOWN INTO NORTHEAST PA AND OVER TO ABOUT NYC. SOUTH OF THAT LINE, CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HANG IN TOUGH MUCH OF THE DAY, AND IT COULD SHOWER HERE AND THERE.

A BUBBLE HIGH WILL PROBABLY BE CENTERED NORTH OF TORONTO TOMORROW MORNING, AND THAT HIGH WILL SHIFT OVER TO WESTERN MA BY TOMORROW EVENING. BY LATER TOMORROW NIGHT, THAT HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST, TURNING OUR SURFACE WIND FLOW INTO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THAT WILL MOISTEN UP THE LOW LEVELS, AND SOME DRIZZLE COULD BREAK OUT. IN ADDITION, THE FRONT, WHICH WILL HAVE STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT TOMORROW NIGHT. THAT MAY LEAD TO A BIT OF RAIN. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, THAT RAIN COULD FREEZE ON SOME SURFACES FROM PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN PA TO THE HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND ON NORTHWARD.

MILDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. WE DO EXPECT RAIN AT TIMES ON WEDNESDAY, BUT RAINFALL TOTALS PROBABLY WON'T BE ANY HIGHER THAN 1/4" TO 1/3".

BEHIND THAT FEATURE, DRIER AIR WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A PARTLY SUNNY DAY HERE ON THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY STILL LOOKS RELATIVELY MILD, AND SO WE ARE PREDICTING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS.

ANOTHER WAVE WILL RACE ALONG IN THE FLOW THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, PERHAPS BRINGING US ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE IN THE FORECAST WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DISTURBANCE COMING ALONG IN THE FLOW. THE MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING, SPEED, AND INTENSITY OF THAT SYSTEM. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP OPTIONS OPEN. IN THE PATTERN THAT WE HAVE BEEN IN FOR AWHILE, ODDS WOULD FAVOR PROGRESSION AND LIMITED COLD AIR, BUT THERE MAY JUST ENOUGH AVAILABLE FOR SOME WET SNOW N/W CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING.

"S" WORD BACK IN THE FORECAST. NOT SNOW...SIXTY!

DESPITE THE FACT THAT IT IS THE MIDDLE OF DECEMBER, THE WEATHER AROUND HERE IS UNBELIEVABLY TAME! WHAT'S MORE, IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL GET THROUGH YET ANOTHER WEEK OF THIS MONTH RELATIVELY UNSCATHED. AS WE HAVE DISCUSSED IN RECENT WEEKS, IT'S ALMOST LIKE WE HAVE ALREADY "PRE-PAID" FOR THIS RATHER NICE WEATHER DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS WITH ALL OF THE CRAZY THINGS THAT HAVE HAPPENED. MOST OF THE TIME, YOU'RE ALWAYS THINKING TO YOURSELF THAT WE WILL HAVE TO PAY FOR THIS SOMEWHERE DOWN THE LINE. THAT CERTAINLY MAY INDEED HAPPEN AT SOME POINT. HOWEVER, AT THIS JUNCTURE, THERE IS STILL NO SIGN OF PROLONGED COLD LOCKING IN AND NO SIGN OF BLOCKING IN THE HIGH LATITUDES. IN FACT, THE EURO WEEKLIES THAT CAME OUT LAST THURSDAY SHOWED ABSOLUTELY NO REALLY COLD WEATHER IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY OUT THROUGH THE 4 WEEK PERIOD. TEMPS HERE ARE FORECAST BY THE EURO TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL, WITH A COUPLE OF BRIEF BOUTS OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HEIGHT ANOMALIES BY WEEK 4 ARE SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF THREE STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE AVERAGE...FOR WHAT IT'S WORTH! SKI AREAS IN THE NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY THE SMALLER SITES, ARE SCRAMBLING TO PUT SOME ARTIFICIAL SNOW ON THE SLOPES. FOR THE SMALLER TO MEDIUM SIZED SKI RESORTS, THE CHRISTMAS-NEW YEARS TIME FRAME OFTEN MAKES OR BREAKS THEIR BOTTOM LINE FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON. CERTAINLY, THEY ARE GETTING QUITE ANTSY AT THIS JUNCTURE.

AS FOR THE ACTUAL WEATHER HERE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THINGS LOOK FAIRLY STRAIGHT-FORWARD. A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE MASON-DIXON LINE. A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE PLAINS STATES TOWARD SAULT ST. MARIE AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC. BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY, WE SEE ANOTHER GOOD SIZED HIGH LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. MEANWHILE, A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE CAROLINAS IS CAUSING SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS UP INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THAT DISTURBANCE TO OUR SOUTH WILL KEEP PATCHY CLOUDS AROUND HERE FOR AWHILE TONIGHT. HOWEVER, BY TOMORROW, WE EXPECT THE FEATURE TO MOVE AWAY, LEADING TO A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE HERE.

THAT NORTHERN FRONT THAT WE HAD MENTIONED EARLIER WILL MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND BY WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE IT MORE OR LESS FALLS APART AND LOSES ITS IDENTITY DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THE NEW HIGH FROM CANADA WILL MERGE WITH THE EXISTING HIGH FARTHER SOUTH, AND BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WE WILL LIKELY SEE ONE HIGH CENTERED SOMEWHERE NEAR BOSTON. THE RESULT WILL BE A CONTINUATION OF DRY WEATHER THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WE ARE GOING WITH SOME SORT OF CLOUDS/SUN COMBO WORDING FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, IT WILL PROBABLY END UP CLOUDIER THAN IT WILL BE EARLY IN THE DAY.

AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER BIG RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPS WILL TREND UPWARD A BIT TOMORROW. THEN READINGS ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY SIMILAR TO TOMORROW. THURSDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE OUR MILDEST DAY OF THE WEEK, SINCE WE WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL THAT DAY. TEMPERATURES MAY SPIKE TO 60 IF WE GET SOME SUNNY BREAKS.THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE DON'T LOOK TOO TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER, WE MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS WITH THE APPROACH AND ARRIVAL OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.

BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY, FRIDAY LOOKS BREEZY AND COOLER, ALTHOUGH THE CHILLIEST AIR WILL LIKELY HOLD BACK ONE MORE DAY AND WAIT UNTIL THE WEEKEND TO GET HERE. FOR T HAT REASON, AND DUE TO THE FACT THAT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RELATIVELY MILD, WE HAD TO TWEAK FRIDAY'S UP A BIT. THE WEEKEND IS LOOKING DRY AND MODERATELY CHILLY.

DECEMBER PICKS UP WHERE NOVEMBER LEFT OFF

WE HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO DECEMBER, AND THE NICE, QUIET WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. LOOKING

THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET FROM WHAT WE DISCUSSED YESTERDAY. AFTER A MOSTLY CLEAR, CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT, TOMORROW WILL BE A TAD MILDER THAN TODAY, SINCE WE WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL. THE COMBINATION OF MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS AND A WESTERLY BREEZE FOR AWHILE WILL BOOST TEMPS TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER LEVELS IN THE AFTERNOON THAN THEY WERE TODAY. THE FROPA WILL BE VERY UNEVENTFUL HERE WITH A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT AND A PRESSURE RISE. WELL TO OUR NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY STATE AS WELL AS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, THERE ACTUALLY COULD BE A BRIEF BURST OF SNOW WITH THE FRONT AND THE VORT MAX, FOLLOWED BY A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS AND SOME SLIPPERY ROADS FOR FRIDAY EVENING DRIVERS. FARTHER SOUTH, THERE COULD BE SOME FLURRIES OR A QUICK SNOW SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AS THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES OF PA, THE CATSKILLS, AND THE BERKSHIRES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE.

BEHIND THAT FRONT, A FRESH HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, AND THEN WILL PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ON SUNDAY. THE RESULT WILL BE A GORGEOUS DAY HERE ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE. HOWEVER, THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COOLER WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW THAT DAY. THAT'S WHY WE ARE FORECASTING TEMPS TO BE LOWER ON SATURDAY THAN TOMORROW.

OUR FLOW WILL TURN AROUND INTO MORE OF A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION BY SUNDAY, CAUSING TEMPS TO TREND BACK UPWARD AGAIN. THAT WARMING WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE HAVE TWEAKED SOME NUMBERS UP IN OUR FORECAST, AND WE STILL MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH. THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE WE FACE IN THE MEDIUM TERM IS TIMING THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE LONGER IT TAKES TO GET HERE, THE LONGER THE BALMY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. IN ADDITION, WITH THE SLOW EVOLUTION OF THAT FRONTAL SYSTEM AND THE POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY, THE BEST RAIN WILL ALSO HOLD OFF LONGER. WE FEEL THAT MOST LOCATIONS EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS, AND ESPECIALLY FROM I-95 TO THE COAST, WILL END UP BEING DRY ON MONDAY. IT MAY RAIN A BIT MONDAY NIGHT, WITH THE BETTER RAIN HOLDING OFF UNTIL THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. ONCE THAT SYSTEM GOES BY, THEN IT WILL FINALLY TURN COLDER.

BACK AT NOVEMBER, ALL FOUR WEEKENDS FEATURED DRY, PLEASANT CONDITIONS. SO, WE WERE 4 FOR 4! IT APPEARS THAT THE FIRST WEEKEND OF DECEMBER WILL CONTINUE THAT STREAK. THE OVERALL PATTERN HERE STILL DOESN'T LOOK TOO BAD FOR THE NEXT WEEK TO 10 DAYS. THERE IS PLENTY OF EXTREMELY COLD AIR UP NORTH IN ALASKA AND NORTHERN CANADA. FOR EXAMPLE, FAIRBANKS, ALASKA ENDED UP BEING 10.6 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MONTH OF NOVEMBER! YESTERDAY, THE TEMP THERE ROSE ABOVE ZERO FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK. MOULD BAY IN THE NORTHWEST TERRITORIES WAS 13.4 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR NOVEMBER, WITH A MAX TEMP OF 10 ABOVE DURING THE ENTIRE MONTH. UNLESS, AND UNTIL WE GET A MORE BLOCKY PATTERN IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE, ANY COLD SHOTS INTO THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL BE BRIEF AND TRANSIENT.