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12/30/2011

COLD AIR IS A NO SHOW FOR NEW YEAR'S. HAPPY HEALTHY EVERYONE!

THE SEASONABLY CHILLY AIR MASS THAT WAS OVER US YESTERDAY HAS GOTTEN ERODED AWAY. TEMPS FROM THIS POINT ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF 2011 AND INTO NEW YEARS DAY WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE OF NORMAL. THE ACTUAL GRIDDED NUMBERS ARE FORECASTING ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS HERE TOMORROW AND SUNDAY TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE, BUT ARE SLIGHTLY LEANING TOWARD TOMORROW. THAT MAY HAPPEN, BUT IF CLOUDS HANG IN TOUGH FOR A BIT LONGER TOMORROW BEHIND THIS DEPARTING SYSTEM, THEN SUNDAY WILL END UP BEING THE MILDER OF THE TWO DAYS THIS WEEKEND...AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT AS WE CLOSE OUT THIS YEAR AND ENTER INTO 2012, WE WILL BE DEALING WITH TEMPS THAT ARE VERY EASY TO TAKE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR!

ALL OF THE MODELS ARE ON BOARD IN PREDICTING A VERY HEALTHY SHOT OF MUCH COLDER AIR DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THAT WILL BE, BY FAR, THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON SO FAR. EVEN THOUGH THAT COLD SNAP WILL BE TRANSIENT LIKE ALL OF THE OTHERS HAVE BEEN, WE EXPECT IT TO LAST A FEW DAYS, RATHER THAN JUST A DAY OR DAY AND A HALF. HOWEVER, WITH THE NAO STILL BEING POSITIVE, AND PROBABLY REMAINING AT LEAST NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE NEXT WEEK, THERE IS NO WAY THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO LOCK IN A PERSISTENTLY COLD WEATHER PATTERN IN THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. IN FACT, ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ANOTHER NOTICEABLE MODERATING TREND IS ON THE WAY FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF JANUARY.

MONDAY IS OUR TRANSITION DAY TO SHARPLY COLDER WEATHER, TUESDAY IS THE MOST HARSH, WHEN YOU COMBINE THE TEMPS AND WIND, AND WEDNESDAY IS LESS HARSH, BUT STILL COLD. IN FACT, WITH WEDNESDAY BEING A MORE STABLE DAY AND A VERY LOW LAUNCHING PAD, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE ACTUAL MAX TEMP ON WEDNESDAY ENDS UP BEING THE LOWEST OF THIS ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY OF NEXT WEEK, READINGS WILL BE WAY IN THE OTHER DIRECTION, AND WE WILL PROBABLY END UP PLAYING A CATCH-UP GAME WITH TEMPS AS WE GET CLOSER.

AS FOR PRECIP, WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS THIS EVENING TO SEE WHERE THE ECHOES GO THAT ARE NOW IN PA. IF WE MISS THE BOAT ON THAT ACTIVITY, WHICH MOST PLACES PROBABLY WILL, THEN WE WILL HAVE TO WAIT UNTIL LATE TONIGHT FOR IT TO SHOWER. A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW, AND IT IS ACTUALLY PROGGED TO TAKE ON A NEGATIVE TILT. SO, IT WILL LIKELY BECOME A BIT MORE ROBUST AS TIME GOES ON. THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE JUST WEST OF BUFFALO, NY EARLY TOMORROW, AND WILL BE PUSHING EAST OF BOSTON BY 7 PM. SO, WE EXPECT A COUPLE OF SHOWERS TOMORROW DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS, AND EVEN A SHORT PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN IN SOME LOCATIONS. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN AS OUR WINDS SHIFT AROUND INTO THE NORTHWEST. WHILE CLOUDS WILL TRY TO BREAK BY LATE IN THE DAY, IT WILL PROBABLY WAIT UNTIL AFTER SUNSET TO CLEAR.

AT THIS JUNCTURE, NEW YEARS EVE LOOKS VERY QUIET WEATHER WISE WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THAT IS GREAT NEWS FOR THOSE OUT ABOUT ABOUT TOMORROW NIGHT. MOST, OR ALL, OF SUNDAY LOOKS DRY, BUT IT MAY SHOWER LATE IN THE DAY OR EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on December 30, 2011 | Permalink

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