Blog or Bust

A DRY, DOCILE START TO DECEMBER

WE ARE GETTING READY TO CLOSE THE BOOKS ON NOVEMBER 2011. AS WE LOOK BACK AT THE MONTH, WE FIND THAT PRECIP ACTUALLY TOTALED A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHARACTERISTIC OF NOVEMBER WAS THAT TEMPS WERE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL....+4.2 DEGREES THROUGH YESTERDAY.

IT FINALLY LOOKS AND FEELS LIKE LATE NOVEMBER OUTSIDE, AS A MUCH CHILLIER AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD OUR AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, TEMPS HAVE ONLY FALLEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THROUGH THE REGULAR 5 OR 6 DAY FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS STILL NO SIGN OF ANY REALLY COLD AIR HEADED OUR WAY. EVEN IN THE LONGER RANGE, WE DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION OF A PERMANENT FLIP IN THE PATTERN COMING UP THAT WOULD FAVOR PERSISTENTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT WE WON'T HAVE ANY COLD SHOTS. IT'S JUST THAT THEY WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND TRANSIENT UNLESS AND UNTIL WE LOCK INTO A NEGATIVE NAO AND POSITIVE PNA PATTERN.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ITS POOL OF CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUDINESS, BUT LITTLE OR NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. WE DO EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS, WITH SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PA AS WELL AS UPSTATE NY. BY LATER TONIGHT, HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL DAY WEATHER WISE TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES INTO THE VIRGINIAS. THAT WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR DECEMBER 1ST.

OUR QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE NEW MONTH. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A TAD MILDER, SINCE WE WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL THAT DAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE TIME IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION. SO, AT MOST, WE'LL JUST BE DEALING WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. A FRESH HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY SATURDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT THAT HIGH TO BE SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN NY STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY SKIES HERE ON SATURDAY, BUT WITH A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW THAT DAY, THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. THAT HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS HERE.

AS WE GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON SUNDAY, IT WILL TURN A BIT MILDER. LOOKING AHEAD, WE NOW FEEL THAT DRY WEATHER WILL HANG ON THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF MONDAY. THEN, IT WILL MOISTEN UP BY TUESDAY AS A WAVY FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD US. SO, OUR CHANCES OF GETTING SOME RAIN WILL INCREASE BY THEN, BUT IT IS LIKELY TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

HEAVIEST RAIN NEXT 12-18 HOURS

 

 

TODAY REALLY LOOKS AND FEELS LIKE A LATE NOVEMBER DAY! IN CONTRAST, OUR WEATHER AROUND HERE FROM FRIDAYT HROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL SEEM MORE LIKE MID TO LATE OCTOBER. 

THE LATEST WEATHER MAP SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. WE EXPECT THAT SYSTEM TO TRACK INTO OHIO EARLY TONIGHT, AND THEN HEAD INTO PA BY EARLY TOMORROW. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE ACTUAL PATH OF THE LOW WILL BE A TAD FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WE THOUGHT FROM YESTERDAY. THAT MEANS THAT NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WILL STAY IN THE CHILLY AIR THE ENTIRE TIME. THAT ZONE WILL INCLUDE PLACES SUCH AS ERIE, PA, BINGHAMTON AND ALBANY, NY, AND SPRINGFIELD, MA. IN FACT, IF YOU TRAVEL FAR ENOUGH NORTH, FROM THE ADIRONDACKS OF NY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, YOU WILL GET INTO A ZONE WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. FROM THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OVER INTO CENTRAL MAINE, WE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 6-10" RANGE OUT OF THIS STORM.

MEANWHILE, SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK, IT WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR A TIME WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL UP IN THE 60S TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VA AS WELL AS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WE EXPECT THE LOW TO PASS EASTWARD ACROSS PA, PROBABLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-80 AND THE NY BORDER. THIS LOW WILL THEN HEAD TOWARD NYC AND LIKELY PASS WITHIN 10 OR 20 MILES OF MIDTOWN MANHATTAN. OBVIOUSLY, IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE, THE TEMP FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY. ONCE THE LOW PASSES, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS. FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND FAR ENOUGH NORTH, THE TEMP FORECAST TOMORROW IS MUCH EASIER AND STRAIGHTFORWARD. AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, WE EXPECT SOME THUNDER TO SHOW UP TO ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW, AND MAYBE EVEN A TAD FARTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIR. THAT'S BECAUSE THE SHOWALTER INDEX IS SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION FAIRLY FAR NORTH. WE ARE STILL QUITE BULLISH ON THIS BEING A MAJOR RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF JUICE AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM, AND THE DYNAMICS LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. WE EXPECT A GENERAL 1.5" TO 2.5" OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 3.0" IN SOME LOCATIONS. OBVIOUSLY, WE DO HAVE TO COVER FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FALLING OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AND END BY TOMORROW EVENING, ALTHOUGH WE STILL ARE MENTIONING AN EVENING SHOWER IN SPOTS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT'S FORECAST. THEN,MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW NIGHT, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SO, IT WILL BE BRISK AND MAYBE EVEN DOWNRIGHT WINDY FOR A TIME FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY FOR AWHILE. TURKEY DAY LOOKS ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS NOT TOO HARD TO TAKE FOR LATE NOVEMBER. IT WILL GET EVEN BETTER ON BLACK FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND!

 

Forecast Discussion:

 

 

BRIEF BLAST OF CHILLY AIR

ON THIS DATE BACK IN 1980, AN EARLY SEASON SNOWSTORM HIT PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST. THE MAJORITY OF THAT SNOW FELL IN ABOUT FOUR TO FIVE HOURS! GENERALLY 3-6" OF SNOW FELL IN THE ZONE FROM HARRISBURG TO ALLENTOWN TO THE NORTHWEST SUBURBS OF NYC. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE REPORTED IN PARTS OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN PA WHERE AS MUCH AS A FOOT ACCUMULATED.

MEANWHILE, THE BIG CITIES OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR ENDED UP WITH MOSTLY RAIN, AFTER A MIXED BAG OF PRECIP AT THE START. IN CONTRAST, WE DIDN'T HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT ANY MAJOR SNOWSTORM TODAY. HOWEVER, WE DID HAVE SOMEWHAT OF A SCARE AS MOISTURE HUNG ON A LITTLE LONGER THAN WE HAD BARGAINED FOR EARLIER IN THE WEEK, THANKS TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS HANGING BACK PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST. THAT, IN TURN, SPAWNED ONE LAST WAVE ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER, IT DID SEEM LIKE THE COLD ADVECTION AND DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WAS ABLE TO COUNTERACT THE UPWARD MOTION DUE TO THE HEIGHT FALLS AND PVA. THE NET RESULT WAS JUST A BIT OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WASHINGTON-BALTIMORE UP THROUGH PHILLY AND NYC, WITH VERY LITTLE OR NOTHING FARTHER NORTH AND WEST...JUST SOME VIRGA. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN FROM THAT FINAL WAVE FELL FROM THE DELMARVA PENINSULA UP THROUGH COASTAL NJ AND ACROSS PARTS OF LONG ISLAND. WE'LL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BUT IT IS QUITE APPARENT THAT THE RAIN WILL BE PUSHING AWAY TO THE EAST.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT, CAUSING SKIES TO CLEAR. THE MAIN FLAVOR OF TONIGHT'S WEATHER WILL BE THE MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE AREA. A BRISK BREEZE WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.

WE STILL SEEM TO BE ON TARGET TOMORROW WITH A FORECAST OF MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES, BUT CONTINUED BRISK AND CHILLY CONDITIONS. WE EXPECT A GOOD SIZED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, REACHING SOUTHWEST VA TOMORROW MORNING, A POSITION NEAR VIRGINIA BEACH TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THEN PUSHING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SATURDAY. THAT WILL EVENTUALLY PUT US BACK INTO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THAT DEPARTING HIGH, LEADING TO ANOTHER NOTICEABLE WARMUP HERE THIS WEEKEND.

TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE A BIT SLUGGISH IN COMING UP DUE TO SOME LINGERING CHILLY REMAINING IN THE LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER, WE ARE VERY BULLISH ON SUNDAY BEING A VERY MILD DAY, SINCE WE WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL THAT DAY. WE ARE PREDICTING TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NUMBER GUIDANCE ON SUNDAY. HOPEFULLY, WE ARE WARM ENOUGH! AS FOR THE SKY CONDITIONS AND WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL LUCK OUT FOR THE THIRD WEEKEND IN A ROW. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUN, WHILE SUNDAY WILL TEND TO BE SOMEWHAT CLOUDIER...BUT PROBABLY DRY. OVERALL, WE WILL HAVE BOTH CLOUDS AND SUN ON SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY TEND TO LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE CLOUDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW SUN ANGLE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR.

LOOKING AHEAD TO THANKSGIVING WEEK, WE ARE FACED WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS. AS LONG AS THE EURO ENDS UP BEING CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN, WE WILL LIKELY LEAN IN THAT DIRECTION WHICH WOULD IMPLY A WET GETAWAY WEDNESDAY. STAU TUNED

FIRST SIGNIFICANT NOVEMBER RAINFALL

THE GENERAL WEATHER SCENARIO THAT WE OUTLINED YESTERDAY STILL SEEMS TO BE ON TARGET TODAY, ALTHOUGH WE DID HAVE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS.

IT'S QUITE MILD OUTSIDE TODAY, AND TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TOMORROW. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK MUCH CHILLIER, AND FOLKS WILL REALLY NOTICE IT AFTER WHAT WE ARE EXPERIENCING NOW! THEN, ANOTHER HEALTHY WARMUP IS ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND.

WE HAVE TRENDED TEMPS UP A BIT FOR SUNDAY, AND WE STILL MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH. EVEN ON SATURDAY, WE MAY END UP HAVING TO NUDGE THE MAX TEMPS UP A BIT. AS FOR PRECIP, THAT WAS CERTAINLY A VERY IMPRESSIVE SQUALL LINE THAT WAS PUSHING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH PA AND UPSTATE NY LAST EVENING! HOWEVER, THE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST THE LINE WENT, THE FARTHER AWAY IT GOT FROM THE SUPPORT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET. AS A RESULT, IT EVENTUALLY WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY.

WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON THE RADARS AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS IT APPEARS THE ZONE OF MOISTURE WITH THIS FIRST FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST. EVEN SO, ANY RAIN THAT FALLS THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

THE FIRST PULSE OF UPWARD MOTION WILL COME OUT LATE TONIGHT INTO PART OF TOMORROW. FOR THAT REASON, WE DO EXPECT A PERIOD OF STEADIER AND MORE SUBSTANTIAL RAIN TO DEVELOP. OUR ORIGINAL IDEA FROM YESTERDAY WAS THAT THE WET WEATHER MAY LAST FOR A LITTLE WHILE INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE ENDING. NOW, IT APPEARS THAT WILL BE A FINAL DISTURBANCE THAT WILL HEAD OUR WAY TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THAT IS ACTUALLY COINCIDING WITH THE NORTHERN BRANCH TROF TRYING TO PICK UP THE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE. SO, IT DOES MAKE SENSE THAT WE WILL DEALING WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF RAIN TOMORROW NIGHT...WHICH WILL PROBABLY SPILL OVER INTO AT LEAST EARLY THURSDAY. WE HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST IN THAT DIRECTION TO REFLECT THE LATEST CHANGE IN THINKING.

ONE QUESTION WE HAVE IS...WILL THERE BE A BREAK BETWEEN THE TWO PULSES OF RAIN, OR WILL EVERYTHING MORE OR LESS JUST BLEND TOGETHER AS ONE EVENT? WE FEEL THAT TO THE GENERAL PUBLIC, THIS WILL PROBABLY BE PERCEIVED AS ONE EXTENDED SPELL OF WET WEATHER, BE IT STEADY, SOAKING RAIN OR JUST DRIZZLE. HOWEVER, IN REALITY, THERE ALMOST HAS TO BE SOME SORT OF GAP BETWEEN WAVES. THE PROBLEM IS IN TRYING TO TIME AND FINESSE THAT IN THE FORECAST.

IN ANY CASE, DRIER AIR WILL FINALLY WIN OUT AT SOME POINT ON THURSDAY, AND CLOUDS WILL BREAK FOR SOME P.M. SUN. DUE TO THE FINAL WAVE CAUSING THE RAIN TO HOLD ON LONGER HERE, THAT WILL ALSO ACT TO HOLD BACK THE ARRIVAL OF THE REALLY CHILLY AIR. SO, WE HAD NO CHOICE BUT TO RAISE TOMORROW NIGHT'S MIN TEMP. ON THE OTHER HAND, READINGS ON THURSDAY MAY NOT GO MUCH OF ANYWHERE, AND SO OUR ORIGINAL NUMBER THAT WE HAD OUT FROM YESTERDAY WILL LIKELY STILL WORK OUT FINE.

WE DO FEEL THAT THE CORE OF THE CHILLIEST AIR WILL BE OVER US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SO, WE ARE PREDICTING THE LOWEST DAYTIME TEMPS TO OCCUR ON FRIDAY, EVEN WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND A DOWNSLOPING BREEZE.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS MAINLY DRY, ALTHOUGH WE COULD END WITH A SHOWER LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN FLAVOR FOR THE WEEKEND WILL BE FOR ANOTHER SURGE OF MILD AIR TO HEAD OUR WAY...FOR THE THIRD WEEKEND IN A ROW!

BLAST OF CHILLY AIR WILL BE BRIEF

THE SECOND WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER IS ALMOST UPON US, AND FOR THE SECOND TIME IN A ROW, OUR WEATHER IS LOOKING REALLY NICE. IN FACT, LOOKING AT THE LONGER RANGE COMPUTER MODELS, THERE ARE STILL NO SIGNS OF ANY PROLONGED PERIODS OF COLD WEATHER HEADED OUR WAY. THE PATTERN SEEMS TO WANT TO STAY RATHER TRANSIENT FOR THE NEXT WEEK OR TWO. THAT MEANS THAT EVEN THOUGH WE COULD GET BRIEF INTRUSIONS OF CHILLIER AIR, LIKE WHAT IS HAPPENING TODAY, THE COLDEST AIR WILL STAY MOSTLY BOTTLED UP ACROSS CANADA.

THE EURO LONG RANGE CLIMATE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT TEMPS HERE IN THE EASTERN U.S. STAY AT OR ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF THE TIME FOR THE NEXT FOUR WEEKS! THAT EURO LONG RANGE SEEMS TO BE PRETTY BULLISH ON BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. IF THAT IS INDEED THE CASE, THEN THERE IS NO WAY THAT IT CAN ALL THAT COLD HERE IN THE EAST. AT SOME POINT DOWN THE ROAD, WE DO EXPECT A SHIFT IN THE PATTERN THAT WOULD BRING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY. HOWEVER, THAT FLIP IN THE PATTERN MAY STILL BE SOME DISTANCE DOWN THE ROAD.

IN THE SHORT TERM, A NOTICEABLY CHILLIER AIR MASS DID OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY, AND TEMPS REALLY STRUGGLED AS THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT MOVED OVERHEAD. THAT ALSO LEAD TO A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON, AND THEY WILL STICK AROUND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION, WE WERE QUITE CONFIDENT THAT TODAY WOULD BE A WINDY/BLUSTERY DAY. IF YOU STEPPED OUT FOR JUST A BRIEF PERIOD OF TIME TODAY YOU ABSOLUTELY FOUND THAT TO BE TRUE! IN OUR AREA, THE HIGHEST WIND GUST SO FAR IS 46 MPH AT LGA. 

WINDS WILL SLACKEN TONIGHT, BUT NEVER TOTALLY GO AWAY SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH IS SETTLING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, LIGHTER WINDS, AND DRY AIR OVERNIGHT, WE DO EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A RANGE IN TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION.

HEIGHTS WILL BE ON THE RISE THIS WEEKEND, AND PROBABLY WON'T REACH THEIR PEAK UNTIL SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS ALOFT WILL ALSO BE WARMING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS WE HAVE BEEN SAYING, THE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST OVER THE WEEKEND, MORE OR LESS LOCKING IN A SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW HERE BOTH DAYS...AND RIGHT INTO MONDAY AS WELL. THAT WILL LEAD TO A NICE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS. THE NUMBERS THAT WE CURRENTLY HAVE IN THE FORECAST FOR TOMORROW, SUNDAY, MONDAY, AND TUESDAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE HAD YESTERDAY. WHICH DAY IS OUR WARMEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH IS STILL SOMEWHAT UP FOR GRABS, ALTHOUGH THE NEW EURO IS HINTING THAT TUESDAY WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OVER-ACHIEVING DAY WITH TEMPS. OF COURSE, JUST HOW WARM WE GET HERE ON BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AROUND...BOTH CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.

THE WETTEST ZONE ON MONDAY WILL PROBABLY STRETCH FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF PA, WITH LITTLE OR NOTHING HAPPENING FROM EXTREME SOUTH JERSEY AND MUCH OF DE ON SOUTHWARD.

HOWEVER, IT LOOKS LIKE TUESDAY COULD END UP BEING WETTER THAN WE HAD BARGAINED FOR EARLIER, DEPENDING ON WHAT KIND OF INTERACTION THERE IS BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH COLD FRONT. WE STILL HAVE TIME TO WORK OUT THOSE DETAILS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

COLD ON HOLD FOR TWO MORE DAYS

 WHAT A GORGEOUS DAY TODAY! ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10, TODAY HAD TO RATE PRETTY CLOSE TO A PERFECT 10, CERTAINLY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER STANDARDS. WE'VE GOT ONE MORE DRY DAY COMING UP IN THIS CURRENT STRETCH, AND THEN AN UNSETTLED PERIOD IS COMING UP LATER THIS WEEK.

 

IN ANY CASE, WE ARE STILL ON TARGET FOR A BLUSTERY, MUCH COOLER DAY HERE ON FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS SWINGS THROUGH. FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY WELL MIXED, UNSTABLE DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, AND AT LEAST SOME CLOUDINESS AROUND DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT. HOWEVER, THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A MAINLY DRY DAY HERE.

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, HEIGHTS WILL REBOUND QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN, LEADING TO A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH AN UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS. THE SURFACE HIGH SEEMS TO WANT TO SETTLE DOWN OVER THE SOUTHEAST, MEANING A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW HERE. WE DID END UP TWEAKING SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE TO 60!

IF THAT IS INDEED THE CASE, THEN THERE MAY ACTUALLY BE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ON THURSDAY WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY, AND TEMPS WILL LIKELY STILL BE QUITE MILD. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH SEAN GETS PULLED NORTHWARD OR EVEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. AS THAT HIGHER DEW POINT AIR AND DEEPER MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE FRONT AND THE STRONG HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT WE WILL SEE AN ENHANCEMENT IN THE RAIN SOMEWHERE. AT THIS JUNCTURE, WE STILL FEEL THAT THE MOST LIKELY ZONE TO GET A MORE SIGNIFICANT RAIN OUT OF THIS SETUP IS ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND, AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CHANGES ITS TILT FROM NEUTRAL TO NEGATIVE. WE DO HAVE TO BE ON GUARD FOR THE SIGNIFICANT RAIN SETTING UP A BIT FARTHER WEST, GIVEN THE STRONG DYNAMICS TAKING PLACE. WE MAY NOT KNOW FOR SURE EXACTLY HOW THINGS ARE GOING TO PAN OUT FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER DAY OR SO.

EVEN SO, THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO LOOKS FAIRLY TRANSIENT, AND DRY, PLEASANT CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN THIS WEEKEND. THIS IS QUITE A CHANGE FROM THE PERSISTENTLY WET PATTERN THAT WE HAD TO ENDURE LATE THIS SUMMER AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF FALL.

HERE ARE SOME OF THE SPECIFICS, AS WELL AS A FEW CONCERNS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEARBY WILL GIVE US MOONLIT SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ONCE AGAIN A NOTICEABLE RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE PAST FEW DAYS, WE EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO FORM LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

BY TOMORROW, THE MAIN CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE FROM QUEBEC DOWN INTO MAINE AND NEW BRUNSWICK. THAT WILL SET UP A GENERAL, LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. SO, EVEN WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ONCE AGAIN, HIGH TEMPS TOMORROW WILL BE TRIMMED BACK A BIT DUE TO THAT SOUTHEAST FLOW. AREAS RIGHT ALONG THE COAST WILL BE COOLEST, WHILE INLAND LOCATIONS WILL STILL BE ABLE TO GET QUITE WARM.

AS THE OCEAN FLOW CONTINUES TOMORROW NIGHT, THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL MOISTEN UP, RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS. BY LATE AT NIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, THERE MAY EVEN BE A BIT OF DRIZZLE AROUND, OR A LIGHT SHOWER. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A COUPLE OF SHOWERS IN THE AREA AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST AND HEIGHTS BEGIN TO FALL. THE QUESTION WE HAVE IS...WHAT ROLE WILL TROPICAL STORM SEAN HAVE OUT THERE IN THE ATLANTIC? SEAN WILL PROBABLY HOLD BACK THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT SOMEWHAT AS LONG AS IT IS ON THE PLAYING FIELD. YOU CAN ALSO ARGUE THAT THERE WILL BE A SUBSIDENCE ZONE WEST OF THE STORM'S INFLUENCE, WHICH MIGHT INCLUDE THE EASTERN SEABOARD

DRY DAY #8 ON THE WAY TO #10

 

 

  

 

ASIDE FROM THE FOGGY START IN SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING, TODAY TURNED OUT TO BE ANOTHER BEAUTY, MAKING IT DAY #8 IN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER. THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND ON INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IS ACTUALLY FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD. THERE ARE OBVIOUSLY A FEW AREAS OF CONCERN, BUT OVERALL, HERE IS THE SUMMARY FOR THE NEXT FIVE DAYS:

THE WILD CARD IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THAT NEXT SYSTEM IS WHETHER OR NOT WE ARE ABLE TO MAKE THE CONNECTION WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING UP FROM OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. IF THAT DOES INDEED HAPPEN, THEN WE COULD GET INTO A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THAT OCCURRING WILL BE FROM THE IMMEDIATE NJ COAST UP ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. THAT ZONE COULD BE EVEN A TAD FARTHER EAST THAN THAT. IT IS OBVIOUSLY SOMETHING THAT WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH THE WEEK.

WARMEST DAY - TOMORROW

COOLEST DAY - FRIDAY, WITH SATURDAY IN SECOND PLACE

CLOUDIEST, WETTEST, AND MOST UNSETTLED DAY - THURSDAY

WINDIEST DAY - FRIDAY

IN THE SHORT TERM, WE DO HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A ZONE OF CLOUDINESS THAT SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP FROM MI AND NORTHERN OH INTO NORTHWEST PA AND UPSTATE NY. THOSE CLOUDS ARE STRETCHING OUT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS NOW DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WE EXPECT MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH, BUT SOME OF THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR COVERAGE AREA WILL TEND TO BE A BIT CLOUDIER FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT INTO PART OF TOMORROW.

AS WE MENTIONED BEFORE, FOG WAS AN ISSUE IN SOME PLACES THIS MORNING, AND THE SAME THING WILL LIKELY HAPPEN AGAIN LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW, ESPECIALLY IN THE AREAS WHERE SKIES ARE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR.

OVERALL, THE PROFILES ARE SHOWING TOMORROW BEING OUR WARMEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND FLOW MUCH OF THE DAY, EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING INTO A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING FROM NEW ENGLAND INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON WEDNESDAY, WE WILL GENERALLY GET INTO MORE OF AN ONSHORE, SOUTHEAST GRADIENT. THAT WILL TEND TO HOLD TEMPS DOWN A BIT ON WEDNESDAY, DESPITE THE CONTINUATION OF A GOOD DEAL OF SUN.

WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, AND A HEALTHY UPPER LEVEL TROF ALSO HEADING OUR WAY, IT APPEARS THAT WE ARE IN LINE FOR MORE CLOUDS HERE ON THURSDAY, AND A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST A SHOWER OR TWO. WE WILL UNDERGO PRETTY IMPRESSIVE HEIGHT FALLS HERE ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SO, THAT SHOULD BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE AT LEAST SOME MOISTURE OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGHER DEW POINTS BY THURSDAY DUE TO THE OCEAN FLOW. OUR GUT FEELING AT THIS TIME IS THAT THE QPF ON THE MODELS IS A TAD UNDERDONE.

BY FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL BE MOVING THROUGH, AND HEIGHTS WILL REACH THEIR LOWEST POINT THAT DAY. WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT, FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A VERY UNSTABLE DAY WITH GUSTY WINDS, MUCH COOLER TEMPS THAN THURSDAY, AND AT LEAST SOME INSTABILITY CLOUDS AROUND. WHILE WE ARE FORECASTING A DRY DAY ON FRIDAY, WE CERTAINLY HAVE TO AT LEAST MENTION A POSSIBLE BRIEF SHOWER, DESPITE THE STRONG DOWNSLOPING WIND. DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TILT OF THAT UPPER LEVEL TROF, AND THE SPEED OF THE COLD ADVECTION, IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT WE END UP WITH A NARROW BAND OF RAIN ENDING AS SOME SNOW FROM EASTERN NY STATE INTO PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND.

LOOKING AHEAD, HEIGHTS WILL BE REBOUNDING NICELY AGAIN BY SATURDAY. THAT WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH ANOTHER MODERATING TREND IN TEMPS JUST GETTING UNDERWAY.

Forecast Discussion Page 2:

AS NICE AS NOVEMBER GETS

THE OVERALL WEATHER SCENARIO THAT WE DISCUSSED ALL WEEK LONG DEFINITELY SEEMS TO BE WORKING OUT FINE AS WE CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK AND HEAD INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. A WELL-DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL BE FORCED TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW TURNING MORE NORTHWESTERLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY. THAT, IN TURN, WILL FOR THE SURFACE LOW THAT IS NOW OVER SOUTHERN ILLINOIS TO HEAD DOWN TO THE CAROLINA COAST TOMORROW, AND THEN OUT TO SEA FROM THERE.

MEANWHILE, A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE NOW DROPPING INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT DOES EXTEND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST LOW. THERE IS ACTUALLY A SKINNY ARM OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT COVERS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. WE EXPECT THE LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THAT FRONT TO ONLY MAKE IT SO FAR SOUTHEASTWARD TONIGHT BEFORE DYING OUT...PROBABLY MAKING IT INTO NORTHERNMOST NY STATE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THEN, AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW, IT WILL PRODUCE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NH AND VT, AS WELL AS PARTS OF MAINE. IN

BETWEEN, WE WILL BE LEFT HIGH AND DRY IN THE SHORT TERM. THE ONLY EFFECTS WE'LL NOTICE FROM THE SYSTEM SLIDING BY WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND THE NORTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT WILL BE SOME CLOUDINESS FOR A TIME...MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. OUR CLOUDIEST TIME HERE WILL LIKELY BE LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, DRIER AIR WILL BE WINNING OUT, AND SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OUT MOSTLY SUNNY.

TEMPS MUCH OF TONIGHT WILL BE HELD UP SOMEWHAT BY THE CLOUDS AND ALSO BY BEING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THEN, WE DO EXPECT COOLER AIR TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW ON GUSTY NORTHERLY BREEZES. SO, WITH THE COLD ADVECTION, TEMPS WILL ONLY BE ABLE TO GO SO FAR BEFORE LEVELING OFF. AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP BETWEEN A BIG HIGH BUILDING INTO ONTARIO, CANADA AND THE STRENGTHENING STORM OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL LEAD TO INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND ELSEWHERE.

AFTER A BRISK, CHILLY NIGHT TOMORROW NIGHT, WE ARE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS LOOKING WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS STEADILY RISE FROM TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THAT MEANS THAT A BIG SURFACE HIGH WILL BE CENTERED CLOSE BY FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND, TREATING US TO DEEP BLUE SKIES AND BRIGHT SUNSHINE. IT STILL LOOKS A BIT BREEZY FOR AWHILE ON SATURDAY, BUT THEN WINDS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND WILL BE QUITE LIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AWAY FROM THE CITY WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS WE WILL HAVE PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. DESPITE THE SUNNY SKIES, SATURDAY LOOKS COOL.

EVEN ON SUNDAY, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE VERY STABLE WITH RESIDUAL COOLNESS IN THE LOW LEVELS. SO, WE HAVE TO BE CAUTIOUS NOT TO GO OVERBOARD WITH THE MAX TEMPS THAT DAY. IT DOES LOOK WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH  SETTLES A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWARD AND OUR WIND FLOW HAS MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT.

NICE START TO NOVEMBER

WELCOME TO NOVEMBER! NO SUN, NO SHINE, NO BIRDS, NO BEES, NO FLOWERS, NO LEAVES, NO-VEMBER! THAT DESCRIPTION WILL LIKELY BE VERY FITTING FOR NOVEMBER AS A WHOLE. HOWEVER, THE MONTH ACTUALLY STARTED OUT ON A BRIGHT AND BEAUTIFUL NOTE TODAY.

MORE NICE WEATHER IS ON THE WAY THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND. IN FACT, WHEN YOU COMPARE THE WEATHER THAT WE JUST HAD TO ENDURE THIS PAST WEEKEND, AND WHAT IT CAN BE LIKE AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE ARE IN FOR A REAL TREAT HERE FOR THIS FIRST WEEK OF NOVEMBER. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD, WE WILL NOT HAVE A DROP OF RAIN, OR ANY OTHER FORM OF PRECIP, THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

THE STORM THAT GRAZED THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLIER TODAY WITH CLOUDS, GUSTY WINDS, AND AT LEAST SOME RADAR ECHOES, IS NOW VERY WELL DEFINED OFFSHORE. THAT SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO HEAD OUT TO SEA IN THE NEAR FUTURE. BEHIND THAT FEATURE, HEIGHTS WILL BUILD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, PRETTY MUCH LOCKING IN THE ELONGATED AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NOW EXTENDING FROM THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SOUTHWESTWARD TO GEORGIA. THE RESULT WILL BE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WITH A BIG RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA.

TOMORROW WILL FEATURE BRIGHT SUNSHINE, CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS, AND A PLEASANT AFTERNOON. THE ONLY POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING, MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE CITY.

THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER COMFORTABLE DAY WITH SUNSHINE AND SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS. ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOW PRETTY MUCH ON BOARD WITH THE SAME SOLUTION LATE THIS WEEK. IT APPEARS THAT THE HEALTHY CLOSED LOW ROLLING EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST WILL BE FORCED TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD OVER TIME, IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. AS THAT HAPPENS, THE MOISTURE SHIELD WITH THAT LOW WILL SLIDE BY HARMLESSLY TO OUR SOUTH, EVENTUALLY EXITING THE CAROLINA AND SOUTHERN VA COAST BY LATE FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING. SO, WITH THAT IN MIND, WE ENDED UP CHOPPING THE POSSIBLE SHOWER OUT OF OUR FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, AND WE NOW HAVE IT BONE DRY. THERE WILL BE A NORTHERN BRANCH SHORTWAVE AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE FLOW LATE THIS WEEK. THAT WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME HERE, WITH THE "CLOUDIEST" PERIOD BEING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, OUR SKIES COULD ACTUALLY BE TURNING OUT MOSTLY SUNNY. AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEIGHTS GETTING BEAT DOWN LATE THIS WEEK, WE WILL GO INTO ANOTHER EPISODE OF RISING HEIGHTS THIS WEEKEND. AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS, WE'LL ALSO SEE THE RE-ESTABLISHMENT OF A SURFACE HIGH IN THE EAST.

AS FOR TEMPS, WE DO FEEL THAT THERE WILL BE DECENT COOLING BEHIND FRIDAY'S COLD FRONT. SO, WE HAD TO ADJUST READINGS DOWNWARD SOMEWHAT FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. EVEN SO, THE MAIN THRUST OF THE CHILLY AIR WILL BE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT SATURDAY WILL BE COOL, DESPITE BRIGHT, SUNNY SKIES, THEN SUNDAY WILL TURN A BIT MILDER. HOWEVER, EVEN ON SUNDAY, WE HAVE TO BE CAREFUL NOT TO OVERDO TEMPS, GIVEN THE VERY  STABLE LOOK TO THE ATMOSPHERE THAT DAY. IN SUMMARY...ENJOY, ENJOY THIS SNOOZE AND CRUISE WEATHER PATTERN!