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11/22/2011

HEAVIEST RAIN NEXT 12-18 HOURS

 

 

TODAY REALLY LOOKS AND FEELS LIKE A LATE NOVEMBER DAY! IN CONTRAST, OUR WEATHER AROUND HERE FROM FRIDAYT HROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL SEEM MORE LIKE MID TO LATE OCTOBER. 

THE LATEST WEATHER MAP SHOWS A VERY WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN INDIANA. WE EXPECT THAT SYSTEM TO TRACK INTO OHIO EARLY TONIGHT, AND THEN HEAD INTO PA BY EARLY TOMORROW. IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE ACTUAL PATH OF THE LOW WILL BE A TAD FARTHER SOUTH THAN WHAT WE THOUGHT FROM YESTERDAY. THAT MEANS THAT NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK WILL STAY IN THE CHILLY AIR THE ENTIRE TIME. THAT ZONE WILL INCLUDE PLACES SUCH AS ERIE, PA, BINGHAMTON AND ALBANY, NY, AND SPRINGFIELD, MA. IN FACT, IF YOU TRAVEL FAR ENOUGH NORTH, FROM THE ADIRONDACKS OF NY INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, YOU WILL GET INTO A ZONE WHERE SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY PRECIP TYPE. FROM THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE GREEN AND WHITE MOUNTAINS OVER INTO CENTRAL MAINE, WE EXPECT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 6-10" RANGE OUT OF THIS STORM.

MEANWHILE, SOUTH OF THE LOW TRACK, IT WILL BE QUITE MILD FOR A TIME WITH HIGH TEMPS WELL UP IN THE 60S TOMORROW ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN VA AS WELL AS THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WE EXPECT THE LOW TO PASS EASTWARD ACROSS PA, PROBABLY SOMEWHERE BETWEEN I-80 AND THE NY BORDER. THIS LOW WILL THEN HEAD TOWARD NYC AND LIKELY PASS WITHIN 10 OR 20 MILES OF MIDTOWN MANHATTAN. OBVIOUSLY, IF YOU ARE CLOSE TO THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE, THE TEMP FORECAST IS VERY TRICKY. ONCE THE LOW PASSES, THERE WILL BE A NOTICEABLE DROP IN TEMPS. FAR ENOUGH SOUTH AND FAR ENOUGH NORTH, THE TEMP FORECAST TOMORROW IS MUCH EASIER AND STRAIGHTFORWARD. AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, WE EXPECT SOME THUNDER TO SHOW UP TO ABOUT THE TRACK OF THE LOW, AND MAYBE EVEN A TAD FARTHER NORTH IN THE COOLER AIR. THAT'S BECAUSE THE SHOWALTER INDEX IS SUGGESTING SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION FAIRLY FAR NORTH. WE ARE STILL QUITE BULLISH ON THIS BEING A MAJOR RAIN EVENT FOR OUR AREA. THERE IS A LOT OF JUICE AVAILABLE TO THIS SYSTEM, AND THE DYNAMICS LOOK FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. WE EXPECT A GENERAL 1.5" TO 2.5" OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AS MUCH AS 3.0" IN SOME LOCATIONS. OBVIOUSLY, WE DO HAVE TO COVER FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS WITH THIS MUCH RAIN FALLING OVER A RELATIVELY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SHOWERS AND END BY TOMORROW EVENING, ALTHOUGH WE STILL ARE MENTIONING AN EVENING SHOWER IN SPOTS FOR TOMORROW NIGHT'S FORECAST. THEN,MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE TOMORROW NIGHT, AND SKIES WILL CLEAR. THERE WILL BE A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. SO, IT WILL BE BRISK AND MAYBE EVEN DOWNRIGHT WINDY FOR A TIME FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM. WINDS WILL LIGHTEN UP ON THANKSGIVING DAY, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A BIT BREEZY FOR AWHILE. TURKEY DAY LOOKS ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPS NOT TOO HARD TO TAKE FOR LATE NOVEMBER. IT WILL GET EVEN BETTER ON BLACK FRIDAY AND OVER THE WEEKEND!

 

Forecast Discussion:

 

 

Posted by Lee Goldberg on November 22, 2011 | Permalink

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