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11/30/2011

A DRY, DOCILE START TO DECEMBER

WE ARE GETTING READY TO CLOSE THE BOOKS ON NOVEMBER 2011. AS WE LOOK BACK AT THE MONTH, WE FIND THAT PRECIP ACTUALLY TOTALED A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, THE MOST NOTICEABLE CHARACTERISTIC OF NOVEMBER WAS THAT TEMPS WERE CONSIDERABLY ABOVE NORMAL....+4.2 DEGREES THROUGH YESTERDAY.

IT FINALLY LOOKS AND FEELS LIKE LATE NOVEMBER OUTSIDE, AS A MUCH CHILLIER AIR MASS HAS OVERSPREAD OUR AREA DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, TEMPS HAVE ONLY FALLEN BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THROUGH THE REGULAR 5 OR 6 DAY FORECAST PERIOD, THERE IS STILL NO SIGN OF ANY REALLY COLD AIR HEADED OUR WAY. EVEN IN THE LONGER RANGE, WE DO NOT SEE ANY INDICATION OF A PERMANENT FLIP IN THE PATTERN COMING UP THAT WOULD FAVOR PERSISTENTLY COLDER THAN NORMAL WEATHER. THAT IS NOT TO SAY THAT WE WON'T HAVE ANY COLD SHOTS. IT'S JUST THAT THEY WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF AND TRANSIENT UNLESS AND UNTIL WE LOCK INTO A NEGATIVE NAO AND POSITIVE PNA PATTERN.

IN THE SHORTER TERM, THE UPPER LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH ITS POOL OF CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME CLOUDINESS, BUT LITTLE OR NOTHING IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. WE DO EXPECT SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS, WITH SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE VALLEYS OF NORTHCENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PA AS WELL AS UPSTATE NY. BY LATER TONIGHT, HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE, SETTING THE STAGE FOR A BEAUTIFUL DAY WEATHER WISE TOMORROW AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES INTO THE VIRGINIAS. THAT WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR DECEMBER 1ST.

OUR QUIET WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AS WELL AS THE FIRST WEEKEND OF THE NEW MONTH. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE A TAD MILDER, SINCE WE WILL BE PRE-FRONTAL THAT DAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL HAVE LITTLE OR NO MOISTURE TO WORK WITH BY THE TIME IT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION. SO, AT MOST, WE'LL JUST BE DEALING WITH SOME CLOUDS AND A WIND SHIFT. A FRESH HIGH WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY SATURDAY MORNING, WE EXPECT THAT HIGH TO BE SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN NY STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE SUNNY SKIES HERE ON SATURDAY, BUT WITH A LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST FLOW THAT DAY, THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. THAT HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND, BUT WILL MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS HERE.

AS WE GET INTO THE RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH ON SUNDAY, IT WILL TURN A BIT MILDER. LOOKING AHEAD, WE NOW FEEL THAT DRY WEATHER WILL HANG ON THROUGH MOST, IF NOT ALL, OF MONDAY. THEN, IT WILL MOISTEN UP BY TUESDAY AS A WAVY FRONT SLOWLY WORKS ITS WAY TOWARD US. SO, OUR CHANCES OF GETTING SOME RAIN WILL INCREASE BY THEN, BUT IT IS LIKELY TO STAY ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH TUESDAY.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on November 30, 2011 | Permalink

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