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July 2011

07/22/2011

HOTTEST EVER?

 

 

BLISTERING, SIZZLING, SCORCHING, BAKING, STIFLING, UNBEARABLE, OPPRESSIVE,

UNPRECEDENTED, RECORD-BREAKING...AND THE LIST GOES ON AND ON. THESE ARE ALL WORDS

THAT CAN BE USED TO DESCRIBE OUR WEATHER YESTERDAY AND TODAY. WE ARE GOING TO COME

VERY CLOSE TO THE ALL-TIME NYC HIGH OF 106 SET ON JULY 9, 1936. IT LOOKS LIKE WE'VE

GOT ONE MORE EXTREMELY HOT DAY TO DEAL WITH TOMORROW, THEN THE HEAT WILL BE

TRIMMED BACK CONSIDERABLY BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. IT DEFINITELY DOES LOOK LIKE OUR

HEAT WAVE WILL OFFICIALLY GO INTO SUNDAY, BUT THEN IT WILL BE BROKEN BY MONDAY WITH

AN ONSHORE FLOW THAT DAY. DEW POINTS HERE ARE LIKELY TO STAY QUITE HIGH THROUGH

TOMORROW, BUT WILL BE TRIMMED BACK A BIT ON SUNDAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW.

HUMIDITY LEVELS COULD INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AHEAD OF THE NEXT

COOL FRONT. THEN, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT DEW POINTS WILL TREND BACK A BIT ONCE AGAIN BY

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. T-STORMS HAVE POPPED UP IN A FEW SPOTS THIS AFTERNOON TO

OUR SOUTH AS THE LID SEEMS TO HAVE COME OFF THE ATMOSPHERE. WE WILL JUST HAVE TO

NOWCAST THE RADARS INTO THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL T-STORMS WILL BE AROUND LATE

TOMORROW INTO TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY T-STORMS TO

OUR SOUTH. WE STILL FEEL THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTION SUNDAY WILL STAY SOUTH AND

WEST OF NYC, ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE A CLOSE CALL. IT MAY BECOME VERY ACTIVE LATE MONDAY

OR MONDAY NIGHT, DEPENDING ON WHEN THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT COOL FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE

NORTHWEST. THERE SEEMS TO BE A GOOD JET STREAK AIMED TOWARD US BY THEN, ALONG WITH

SOME HEIGHT FALLS, COMING INTO A JUICY AIR MASS. THERE COULD BE DAMAGING WINDS, HEAVY

RAIN, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH FROM THOSE STORMS. TUESDAY'S WEATHER WILL REALLY

DEPEND ON THE SPEED OF THAT FRONT, BUT BY WEDNESDAY WE DO EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO

 RESUME AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO RISE AND A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN.

Forecast Discussion:

 

 

07/14/2011

WEATHER YOU TO WANT TO BOTTLE UP

THE STRONG VORT MAX THAT CAME THROUGH THE NORTHEAST LATE YESTERDAY AND EARLY LAST NIGHT HAS NOW PUSHED WELL OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. AS WE SUSPECTED, ONCE THAT SHORT WAVE PASSED, THEN THE SURFACE COOL FRONT WAS ABLE TO ACCELERATE A BIT ON ITS MOVE SOUTHWARD. THAT BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN GEORGIA. IN ITS WAKE, A NICE, REFRESHING AIR MASS COVERS THE REGION. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT IT WILL STAY COMFORTABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

HIGH PRESSURE NOW CENTERED OVER LAKE HURON WILL HEAD SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, REACHING THE DELMARVA COAST BY TOMORROW EVENING, AND THEN WILL BE SLOWLY PUSHING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. THAT SLIGHTLY FARTHER TRACK OF THE SURFACE HIGH NOW SEEMS PRETTY DEFINITE. OF COURSE, THAT IS IN CONTRAST TO THE MODEL SOLUTION FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK IN PUSHING THE HIGH EAST OF MONTAUK POINT OR CAPE COD. WHAT THAT MEANS FOR US IS A FASTER TURNAROUND OF WINDS INTO THE SOUTHWEST, AND PERHAPS A SLIGHTLY QUICKER UPTICK IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS THIS WEEKEND.

WE STILL FEEL THAT HUMIDITY LEVELS WON'T BE TOO BAD YET ON SATURDAY, BUT IT WILL BEGIN TO FEEL A LITTLE STICKY ON SUNDAY. BY MONDAY, WE WILL DEFINITELY BE BACK INTO A STEAM BATH SITUATION WITH A WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. YESTERDAY, WE STARTED THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS FOR MONDAY, AND WE NUDGED HIGHS FOR THAT DAY UP A BIT MORE TODAY. TUESDAY WILL PROBABLY BE ANOTHER HOT, HUMID DAY. HOWEVER, ACTUAL HIGH TEMPS THAT DAY COULD BE TRIMMED BACK A BIT BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE T-STORMS, DEPENDING ON WHERE THAT NEXT FRONT IS AT THAT TIME.

BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY, WE EXPECT A SLIGHT BREAK FOR A DAY OR TWO, BEFORE THE HEAT REALLY STARTS TO BUILD LATE NEXT WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THAT HEAT WAVE COULD BE QUITE INTENSE HERE, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REACH OR SURPASS 100 DEGREES! CERTAINLY, BUT THIS TIME NEXT WEEK, THAT STIFLING HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE THE BIG WEATHER STORY.

IN THE MEANTIME, WE'LL HAVE A COUPLE OF VERY COMFORTABLE NIGHTS TONIGHT AND AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT WITH A BIG RANGE IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE AREA. AS FOR ANY FORECAST CONCERNS, THE BIG THING WILL BE HOW MUCH MOISTURE IS AROUND DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND AS AN AXIS OF VORTICITY SWINGS THROUGH AND COMBINES WITH WARM ADVECTION AND THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS AND DEW POINTS. FOR NOW, WE HAVE TRENDED SUNDAY'S SKY COVER FORECAST A LITTLE LESS OPTIMISTIC SOUNDING. IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO, WE EVEN HAVE TO DEAL WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THAT DAY.

ONE LAST NOTE: TONIGHT THERE IS A FULL MOON THAT OCCURS AT 2:38 A.M. EDT. THE JULY FULL MOON IS OFTEN REFERRED TO AS THE "FULL BUCK MOON", "FULL THUNDER MOON" AND THE "FULL HAY MOON".

07/13/2011

OPPRESSIVE AIR ALMOST ERASED

DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS, WE OFTEN DEAL WITH FRONTAL "ZONES" MADE UP OF MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN DISTINCT FRONTS LIKE WE SEE AT OTHER TIMES OF THE YEAR. AS OF MIDDAY, ONE BOUNDARY IS ACTUALLY SHOWING UP FAIRLY WELL ON THE SURFACE ANALYSIS AND ALSO THE LATEST RADARS, RUNNING FROM NORTHERN WV TO JUST NORTH OF BALTIMORE, JUST SOUTH OF PHILLY, AND INTO SOUTH JERSEY. THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE HELD UP SOMEWHAT FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, UNTIL THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE ROTATES THROUGH UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND, AND HEADS OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY LATE TONIGHT. AFTER THAT POINT, THE FRONT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PUSH SOUTHWARD AT AN ACCELERATED PACE. BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, THE RADAR COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION WILL BE PRETTY MUCH IN LINE WITH WHAT WE HAVE BEEN DESCRIBING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND GUSTY THUNDERSHOWERS WILL BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NY AND NEW ENGLAND. A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS CAN EVEN DRIFT INTO OUR NORTHERN SUBURBS, AS WELL AS LI.

THEN, ANOTHER ZONE OF T-STORMS WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH ACROSS THE VIRGINIAS, PARTS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA, AND DOWN INTO NC. IN FACT, A FEW OF THE T-STORMS DOWN THAT WAY COULD BE LOCALLY STRONG. IN BETWEEN, IT WILL LIKELY BE HIGH AND DRY.

FROM THIS POINT FORWARD, OUR FORECAST LOOKS FAIRLY SIMPLE AND STRAIGHTFORWARD. MORE COMFORTABLE, LOWER DEW POINT AIR WILL TAKE CONTROL TONIGHT, AND WILL THEN STAY WITH US FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. TOMORROW WILL PROBABLY BE OUR COOLEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH, BUT THE UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BE SLOW AND GRADUAL. WE EXPECT A REFRESHING NORTH TO NORTHEAST BREEZE TOMORROW. HOWEVER, BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE HIGH BEING CLOSE BY WILL RESULT IN RATHER LIGHT WINDS. AT THE BEACHES, THAT WILL TRANSLATE TO LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

AT NIGHTTIME, THE WEAK FLOW WILL MEAN LARGE RANGES IN LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE TEMPS WILL BE SLUGGISH TO TREND UPWARD THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, THE DEW POINTS WILL ALSO BE VERY SLOW TO RISE. THERE IS STILL SOME CONCERN THAT WE'LL HAVE TO DEAL WITH A FEW CLOUD PATCHES AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND...EITHER SOME HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS SPILLING SOUTHEASTWARD DUE TO WARM ADVECTION, OR SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOWING UP AS A RESULT OF AN ONSHORE FLOW. NEITHER OF THOSE CONCERNS SEEMS ALL THAT GREAT, ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THAT THE SURFACE HIGH NOW APPEARS TO BE EXITING THE COAST FARTHER SOUTH THAN WE BARGAINED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HEADING OFF OF MID-ATLANTIC COAST AS OPPOSED TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. BY MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK, OUR FLOW WILL HAVE TURNED AROUND INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THAT WILL LEAD TO HOTTER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS. WE TWEAKED HIGHS UP IN MANY PLACES FOR MONDAY, AND WE STILL MAY NOT BE HOT ENOUGH. BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, OUR CHANCES OF GETTING A SHOWER OR T-STORM WILL INCREASE.

07/07/2011

Flash Flood Threat Friday

A stationary frontal boundary currently lies from Southern New England across Long Island to the southeast corner of PA then west just south of The Mason Dixon Line from just north of Washington DC to Southern OH. Heavy to strong thunderstorms fired just north of the front across PA and NJ generally to the south of I-80 as the sun's surface heating quickly destabilized the lower levels of the atmosphere. One cell just barely got far enough north to clip the southern part of the Buroughs of New York City with nothing reported in Central Park, a trace at LGA and EWR, 0.09" at JFK, 0.21" at ISP and 0.16" at Farmingdale; otherwise most of the storms were over the southern half of the Tri-State area today. Some severe weather was reported in our viewing area as well but these reports came mostly from Monmouth and Ocean Counties in NJ and a power pole was reported down in Central Islip. 1 inch diameter hail fell on Whitehouse station in Hunterdon County, NJ as well.

The storms have become tamer and more scattered this evening and as we lose the surface heating of the day, this trend will continue. However, WE can't rule out another shower or thunderstorm in parts of the region tonight with humidity levels on the high side, a weak Low Level Jet and even slowly falling heights aloft as The short wave axis back across the Great Lakes slowly gets closer to us overnight.

Friday looks like quite an interesting day. The Great Lakes shortwave will push into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States with increasing upper level winds and diffluence, and an increasing low level southwest jet which will transport lots of juice into the Northeast US. Models are showing Precipitatble Water reaching over 2 inches by the afternoon over the southeastern half of PA right across NJ and most of The Tri-State area. The surface boundary near the Mason Dixon line will also crawl northward into Southern PA and Central NJ by the afternoon providing surface convergence. With some surface heating all of the ingredients will come together for some potentially heavy showers and thunderstorms across the Tri-State region which will continue into Friday night until the short wave axis gets east of our area later Friday night. It will not be a solid widespread heavy rain but some areas may pick up an inch or more of rainfall, while others get a quarter inch. There will be the Potential for flash flooding as well as urban, street and highway flooding where the heavier downpours occur.

The day will tend to be mostly cloudy much of the time this far north across our region so temperatures may be held from getting above 80 degrees. This should prevent us from seeing the thunderstorms get severe or damaging in our area. The likelihood for severe weather on the other hand will be south of the front where there will be more sun heating the surface into the 80s to near 90 making the atmosphere much more unstable.

After some leftover clouds and fog Saturday morning, a much dryer Canadian high pressure system will push right into the area behind the departing short wave which will lend itself to bringing us a good deal of sunshine, lower humidity and highs in the 80s just in time for the weekend. Heat and humidity will make a comeback then early next week.