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03/21/2011

PLENTY OF WINTER IN THE FIRST WEEK OF SPRING

HAPPY SPRING! THE VERNAL EQUINOX TOOK PLACE LAST EVENING AT 7:21 P.M. EDT, AND TODAY IS THE FIRST DAY OF SPRING 2011. HOW IRONIC THAT PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ACTUALLY HAD TO DEAL WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW TODAY. 3-5" OF SNOW FELL IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN PA, THE SOUTHERN TIER OF NY OVER INTO THE CATSKILLS, AND ALSO IN NORTHWESTERN NJ. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THIS REGION, AND EVEN OUT OVER A LARGE AREA, PICKED UP 1-3" OF THE WHITE STUFF.

CURRENTLY, SNOW IS STILL FALLING IN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. IT IS VERY INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LAST TIME IT GOT REALLY WARM IN THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES...ON FEBRUARY 18TH, TWO SIGNIFICANT SNOW EVENTS QUICKLY FOLLOWED A FEW DAYS LATER ON THE 21ST AND 22ND. THE FIRST OF THOSE STORMS WAS A MORE NORTHERN EVENT...BASICALLY FROM AROUND I-80 ON NORTHWARD INTO NY STATE AND NEW ENGLAND. THE SECOND SYSTEM AFFECTED PLACES FARTHER SOUTH, WITH PITTSBURGH PICKING UP ABOUT 8", AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWESTERN PA GETTING CLOSE TO A FOOT. THAT SAME STORM TOTALLY MISSED NYC AND BROUGHT ONLY 0.2" TO THE LEHIGH VALLEY. PHILLY, HOWEVER, PICKED UP CLOSE TO 5", WHILE BALTIMORE GOT 2.5".

IN ANY CASE, AS WE LOOK FORWARD TO THE REST OF THIS WORK WEEK, IT DOES APPEAR THAT OLD MAN WINTER IS NOT DONE YET! WE'VE GOT ANOTHER TRICKY PRECIP SITUATION ON OUR HANDS LATE TOMORROW NIGHT, WEDNESDAY, AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A TREMENDOUS TEMP NORTH TO SOUTH TEMP GRADIENT WILL SET UP BY MIDWEEK, CREATING A VERY WELL-DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. THE ZONE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO UPSTATE NY AND MOST OF NEW ENGLAND LOOKS COLD. TEMPS WON'T BE MUCH HIGHER THAN FREEZING IN THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY, AND SOME LOCATIONS WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S. MEANWHILE, FARTHER SOUTH, AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, IT WILL BLOW TORCH BIG TIME ON WEDNESDAY. AS CLOSE BY AS SOUTHERN VA, TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WILL SOAR TO NEAR 80. WE EXPECT THE LOW TO TRACK FROM JUST SOUTH OF CHICAGO ON WEDNESDAY MORNING TO A POSITION OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.

WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT FROM PORTIONS OF MICHIGAN TROUGH SOUTHWEST ONTARIO AND OVER INTO NY STATE AND MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND, NOTHING BUT SNOW WILL FALL FROM THIS STORM. A SMALL STRIP WILL LIKELY PICK UP 6-10" OF THE WHITE STUFF! FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THERE WILL BE A ZONE OF MIXED PRECIP...STARTING OUT AS SNOW OR MIX, MAYBE MIXING WITH OR GOING OVER TO RAIN, AND THEN PERHAPS ENDING AS SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS. THAT PROBABLY INCLUDES OUR AREA. CONTINUING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH, THIS WILL BASICALLY BE A RAIN EVENT, ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER AT THE TAIL END. NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THE LOW, WE COULD BE DEALING WITH STRONG TO SEVERE T-STORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. FOLLOWING THAT STORM, A NORTHERLY FLOW OF UNUSUALLY COLD AIR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED AND PRETTY MUCH PERSIST RIGHT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPS DURING THAT PERIOD WILL RUN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.

IN THE MEANTIME, OUR WEATHER WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN THE SHORT TERM TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on March 21, 2011 | Permalink

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