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03/25/2011

FROZEN IN A COLD, QUIET WEATHER PATTERN

WE ARE FACING A PRETTY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. BY FAR, THE MOST NOTICEABLE ASPECT OF OF OUR WEATHER FROM NOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE PERSISTENTLY CHILLY AIR AND CONTINUOUSLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. WHILE IT NOT ALL UNUSUAL TO GET SHOTS OF COLD AIR AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT IS SOMEWHAT OUT OF THE ORDINARY TO GET A LONG STRETCH LIKE THIS WITH DAY AFTER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT TOMORROW WILL BE THE CHILLIEST DAY OF THIS PERIOD, AS 850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES SEEM TO BE BOTTOM OUT THEN. ACTUALLY, AREAS SOUTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE WILL PROBABLY HAVE THEIR COLDEST DAY ON SUNDAY WITH THE CLOUDY SKIES AND SNOW FALLING FOR AWHILE.

WE SEE A GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN TEMPS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BUT READINGS WILL STAY BELOW WHERE THEY SHOULD BE IN LATE MARCH. AS WE SAID YESTERDAY, WE DO EXPECT SOMEWHAT OF A BREEZE AT TIMES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, BY MONDAY, WITH A BETTER ALIGNED FLOW, WE WILL NOTICE A GUSTIER BREEZE. THE AXIS OF THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUT SURELY PROGRESS EASTWARD BY TUESDAY, RESULTING IN PLENTY OF SUNSHINE.

IN THE LONGER RANGE, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS TO HOW THEY HANDLE ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES MOVING ALONG IN THE FLOW. THE TIMING, TRACK, AND INTENSITY OF EACH OF THOSE SYSTEMS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. ONE THING WE ARE CONCERNED ABOUT IS THAT IF THE FIRST OF THOSE FEATURES COMES OUT QUICKLY ENOUGH BY WEDNESDAY AND RUNS INTO THE DRY, CHILLY AIR MASS IN PLACE, THEN WE COULD BE DEALING WITH SOME WET SNOW, OR MIXED PRECIP, IN SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. ELSEWHERE, IT MAY JUST BE A CHILLY RAIN. AGAIN, THOSE DETAILS WILL HAVE TO BE WORKED OUT LATER ON. IN THE MEANTIME, WE WILL HAVE DRY WEATHER FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRUSH WITH FLURRIES FOR AWHILE ON SUNDAY IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA AS A WAVE PASSES BY TO OUR SOUTH.

Posted by Lee Goldberg on March 25, 2011 | Permalink

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Comments

Lee,
I spend a lot of time outside, and it seems that the winds have been much worse this winter than I remember. That includes both base wind speeds and wind gusts. Is there any way to compare average wind speeds year to year, or days with gusts exceeding 20mph and see if my perception is correct?

Thanks very much.

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